Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Conserved and variable correlated mutations in the plant MADS protein network

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Plant MADS domain proteins are involved in a variety of developmental processes for which their ability to form various interactions is a key requisite. However, not much is known about the structure of these proteins or their complexes, whereas such knowledge would be valuable for a better understanding of their function. Here, we analyze those proteins and the complexes they form using a correlated mutation approach in combination with available structural, bioinformatics and experimental data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Correlated mutations are affected by several types of noise, which is difficult to disentangle from the real signal. In our analysis of the MADS domain proteins, we apply for the first time a correlated mutation analysis to a family of interacting proteins. This provides a unique way to investigate the amount of signal that is present in correlated mutations because it allows direct comparison of mutations in various family members and assessing their conservation. We show that correlated mutations in general are conserved within the various family members, and if not, the variability at the respective positions is less in the proteins in which the correlated mutation does not occur. Also, intermolecular correlated mutation signals for interacting pairs of proteins display clear overlap with other bioinformatics data, which is not the case for non-interacting protein pairs, an observation which validates the intermolecular correlated mutations. Having validated the correlated mutation results, we apply them to infer the structural organization of the MADS domain proteins.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our analysis enables understanding of the structural organization of the MADS domain proteins, including support for predicted helices based on correlated mutation patterns, and evidence for a specific interaction site in those proteins.</p

Genetic variation and exercise-induced muscle damage: implications for athletic performance, injury and ageing.

Prolonged unaccustomed exercise involving muscle lengthening (eccentric) actions can result in ultrastructural muscle disruption, impaired excitation-contraction coupling, inflammation and muscle protein degradation. This process is associated with delayed onset muscle soreness and is referred to as exercise-induced muscle damage. Although a certain amount of muscle damage may be necessary for adaptation to occur, excessive damage or inadequate recovery from exercise-induced muscle damage can increase injury risk, particularly in older individuals, who experience more damage and require longer to recover from muscle damaging exercise than younger adults. Furthermore, it is apparent that inter-individual variation exists in the response to exercise-induced muscle damage, and there is evidence that genetic variability may play a key role. Although this area of research is in its infancy, certain gene variations, or polymorphisms have been associated with exercise-induced muscle damage (i.e. individuals with certain genotypes experience greater muscle damage, and require longer recovery, following strenuous exercise). These polymorphisms include ACTN3 (R577X, rs1815739), TNF (-308 G>A, rs1800629), IL6 (-174 G>C, rs1800795), and IGF2 (ApaI, 17200 G>A, rs680). Knowing how someone is likely to respond to a particular type of exercise could help coaches/practitioners individualise the exercise training of their athletes/patients, thus maximising recovery and adaptation, while reducing overload-associated injury risk. The purpose of this review is to provide a critical analysis of the literature concerning gene polymorphisms associated with exercise-induced muscle damage, both in young and older individuals, and to highlight the potential mechanisms underpinning these associations, thus providing a better understanding of exercise-induced muscle damage

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference

A 588-gene microarray analysis of the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of spondyloarthropathy patients.

OBJECTIVES: To identify genes which are more highly expressed in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of patients with spondyloarthropathy (SpA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA), in comparison to normal subjects. METHODS: A 588-gene microarray was used as a screening tool to select a panel of such genes from PBMC of these subjects and of normal subjects. Results were then validated by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). RESULTS: The following genes were more highly expressed in arthritis patients than in normal subjects: macrophage differentiation marker MNDA (myeloid nuclear differentiation antigen), MRP8 and MRP14 (migratory inhibitory factor-related proteins); signalling molecules JAK3 (janus kinase 3) and MAP kinase p38 (mitogen-activated protein kinase); receptors TNFR2/p75, C-C-chemokine receptor type 1 (CCR1), C-X-C-chemokine receptor type 4 (CXCR4) and integrin beta1; and the cytokines/chemokines interleukin (IL) 1beta and IL-8. Expression of CXCR4 was unexpectedly high among all arthritis subjects. Using RT-PCR, ELISA and immunohistology, expression of stromal cell-derived factor 1 (SDF-1) was demonstrated in arthritis joints. CONCLUSIONS: The CXCR4/SDF-1 is a potential pro-inflammatory axis for RA, PsA and SpA

Detailed simulation of cancer exome sequencing data reveals differences and common limitations of variant callers

BACKGROUND Next-generation sequencing of matched tumor and normal biopsy pairs has become a technology of paramount importance for precision cancer treatment. Sequencing costs have dropped tremendously, allowing the sequencing of the whole exome of tumors for just a fraction of the total treatment costs. However, clinicians and scientists cannot take full advantage of the generated data because the accuracy of analysis pipelines is limited. This particularly concerns the reliable identification of subclonal mutations in a cancer tissue sample with very low frequencies, which may be clinically relevant. RESULTS Using simulations based on kidney tumor data, we compared the performance of nine state-of-the-art variant callers, namely deepSNV, GATK HaplotypeCaller, GATK UnifiedGenotyper, JointSNVMix2, MuTect, SAMtools, SiNVICT, SomaticSniper, and VarScan2. The comparison was done as a function of variant allele frequencies and coverage. Our analysis revealed that deepSNV and JointSNVMix2 perform very well, especially in the low-frequency range. We attributed false positive and false negative calls of the nine tools to specific error sources and assigned them to processing steps of the pipeline. All of these errors can be expected to occur in real data sets. We found that modifying certain steps of the pipeline or parameters of the tools can lead to substantial improvements in performance. Furthermore, a novel integration strategy that combines the ranks of the variants yielded the best performance. More precisely, the rank-combination of deepSNV, JointSNVMix2, MuTect, SiNVICT and VarScan2 reached a sensitivity of 78% when fixing the precision at 90%, and outperformed all individual tools, where the maximum sensitivity was 71% with the same precision. CONCLUSIONS The choice of well-performing tools for alignment and variant calling is crucial for the correct interpretation of exome sequencing data obtained from mixed samples, and common pipelines are suboptimal. We were able to relate observed substantial differences in performance to the underlying statistical models of the tools, and to pinpoint the error sources of false positive and false negative calls. These findings might inspire new software developments that improve exome sequencing pipelines and further the field of precision cancer treatment