Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water‐resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted‐pooling‐group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30–40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high‐ and low‐flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.Key Points:We quantify impact of data uncertainty on signatures and their regionalizationMedian signature uncertainty ±10–40%, and highly variable across catchmentsNeglecting gauging uncertainty causes overconditioning of regionalizationPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/1/wrcr21917-sup-0001-2015WR017635-s01.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/2/wrcr21917.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/137249/3/wrcr21917_am.pd

Identification of temporal consistency in rating curve data : Bidirectional Reach (BReach)

In this paper, a methodology is developed to identify consistency of rating curve data based on a quality analysis of model results. This methodology, called Bidirectional Reach (BReach), evaluates results of a rating curve model with randomly sampled parameter sets in each observation. The combination of a parameter set and an observation is classified as nonacceptable if the deviation between the accompanying model result and the measurement exceeds observational uncertainty. Based on this classification, conditions for satisfactory behavior of a model in a sequence of observations are defined. Subsequently, a parameter set is evaluated in a data point by assessing the span for which it behaves satisfactory in the direction of the previous (or following) chronologically sorted observations. This is repeated for all sampled parameter sets and results are aggregated by indicating the endpoint of the largest span, called the maximum left (right) reach. This temporal reach should not be confused with a spatial reach (indicating a part of a river). The same procedure is followed for each data point and for different definitions of satisfactory behavior. Results of this analysis enable the detection of changes in data consistency. The methodology is validated with observed data and various synthetic stage-discharge data sets and proves to be a robust technique to investigate temporal consistency of rating curve data. It provides satisfying results despite of low data availability, errors in the estimated observational uncertainty, and a rating curve model that is known to cover only a limited part of the observations

MINERvA neutrino detector response measured with test beam data

The MINERvA collaboration operated a scaled-down replica of the solid scintillator tracking and sampling calorimeter regions of the MINERvA detector in a hadron test beam at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility. This article reports measurements with samples of protons, pions, and electrons from 0.35 to 2.0 GeV/c momentum. The calorimetric response to protons, pions, and electrons are obtained from these data. A measurement of the parameter in Birks' law and an estimate of the tracking efficiency are extracted from the proton sample. Overall the data are well described by a Geant4-based Monte Carlo simulation of the detector and particle interactions with agreements better than 4%, though some features of the data are not precisely modeled. These measurements are used to tune the MINERvA detector simulation and evaluate systematic uncertainties in support of the MINERvA neutrino cross section measurement program.Comment: as accepted by NIM

Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome protein-mediated actin dynamics control type-I interferon production in plasmacytoid dendritic cells

Mutations in Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome (WAS) protein (WASp), a regulator of actin dynamics in hematopoietic cells, cause WAS, an X-linked primary immunodeficiency characterized by recurrent infections and a marked predisposition to develop autoimmune disorders. The mechanisms that link actin alterations to the autoimmune phenotype are still poorly understood. We show that chronic activation of plasmacytoid dendritic cells (pDCs) and elevated type-I interferon (IFN) levels play a role in WAS autoimmunity. WAS patients display increased expression of type-I IFN genes and their inducible targets, alteration in pD

A Comparison of Methods for Streamflow Uncertainty Estimation

International audienceStreamflow time series are commonly derived from stage-discharge rating curves, but the uncertainty of the rating curve and resulting streamflow series are poorly understood. While different methods to quantify uncertainty in the stage-discharge relationship exist, there is limited understanding of how uncertainty estimates differ between methods due to different assumptions and methodological choices. We compared uncertainty estimates and stage-discharge rating curves from seven methods at three river locations of varying hydraulic complexity. Comparison of the estimated uncertainties revealed a wide range of estimates, particularly for high and low flows. At the simplest site on the Isère River (France), full width 95% uncertainties for the different methods ranged from 3 to 17% for median flows. In contrast, uncertainties were much higher and ranged from 41 to 200% for high flows in an extrapolated section of the rating curve at the Mahurangi River (New Zealand) and 28 to 101% for low flows at the Taf River (United Kingdom), where the hydraulic control is unstable at low flows. Differences between methods result from differences in the sources of uncertainty considered, differences in the handling of the time-varying nature of rating curves, differences in the extent of hydraulic knowledge assumed, and differences in assumptions when extrapolating rating curves above or below the observed gaugings. Ultimately, the selection of an uncertainty method requires a match between user requirements and the assumptions made by the uncertainty method. Given the significant differences in uncertainty estimates between methods, we suggest that a clear statement of uncertainty assumptions be presented alongside streamflow uncertainty estimates

A linkage study of candidate loci in familial Parkinson's Disease

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder after Alzheimer's disease. Most cases are sporadic, however familial cases do exist. We examined 12 families with familial Parkinson's disease ascertained at the Movement Disorder clinic at the Oregon Health Sciences University for genetic linkage to a number of candidate loci. These loci have been implicated in familial Parkinson's disease or in syndromes with a clinical presentation that overlaps with parkinsonism, as well as potentially in the pathogenesis of the disease. METHODS: The examined loci were PARK3, Parkin, DRD (dopa-responsive dystonia), FET1 (familial essential tremor), BDNF (brain-derived neurotrophic factor), GDNF (glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor), Ret, DAT1 (the dopamine transporter), Nurr1 and Synphilin-1. Linkage to the α-synuclein gene and the Frontotemporal dementia with parkinsonism locus on chromosome 17 had previously been excluded in the families included in this study. Using Fastlink, Genehunter and Simwalk both parametric and model-free non-parametric linkage analyses were performed. RESULTS: In the multipoint parametric linkage analysis lod scores were below -2 for all loci except FET1 and Synphilin-1 under an autosomal dominant model with incomplete penetrance. Using non-parametric linkage analysis there was no evidence for linkage, although linkage could not be excluded. A few families showed positive parametric and non-parametric lod scores indicating possible genetic heterogeneity between families, although these scores did not reach any degree of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that in these families there was no evidence for linkage to any of the loci tested, although we were unable to exclude linkage with both parametric and non-parametric methods

Tinnitus

Tinnitus is a prevalent experience and, for those who are troubled by it, it can be debilitating. Risk factors include hearing loss, ototoxic medication, head injury and depression, and at presentation the possibility of otologic disease and of anxiety/depression should be considered. Effective drug treatments have proven elusive, though this is a vibrant theme in tinnitus research. Surgical intervention for any otological pathology associated with tinnitus may be effective for that condition, but the tinnitus may persist. Presently available treatments include the provision of hearing aids when a hearing loss is identified (even when mild or unilateral), wide band sound therapy and counselling. In some patients, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is indicated though availability of tinnitus specific CBT is limited in the UK. Of these treatments the evidence base is strongest for a combination of sound therapy and CBT based counselling, though clinical trials are constrained by the heterogeneity of the tinnitus patient population. Research into mechanisms of tinnitus and effective treatments now abounds, and progress is keenly anticipated

Realising consilience: How better communication between archaeologists, historians and natural scientists can transform the study of past climate change in the Mediterranean

This paper reviews the methodological and practical issues relevant to the ways in which natural scientists, historians and archaeologists may collaborate in the study of past climatic changes in the Mediterranean basin. We begin by discussing the methodologies of these three disciplines in the context of the consilience debate, that is, attempts to unify different research methodologies that address similar problems. We demonstrate that there are a number of similarities in the fundamental methodology between history, archaeology, and the natural sciences that deal with the past (“palaeoenvironmental sciences”), due to their common interest in studying societal and environmental phenomena that no longer exist. The three research traditions, for instance, employ specific narrative structures as a means of communicating research results. We thus present and compare the narratives characteristic of each discipline; in order to engage in fruitful interdisciplinary exchange, we must first understand how each deals with the societal impacts of climatic change. In the second part of the paper, we focus our discussion on the four major practical issues that hinder communication between the three disciplines. These include terminological misunderstandings, problems relevant to project design, divergences in publication cultures, and differing views on the impact of research. Among other recommendations, we suggest that scholars from the three disciplines should aim to create a joint publication culture, which should also appeal to a wider public, both inside and outside of academia.This paper emerged as a result of a workshop at Costa Navarino and the Navarino Environmental Observatory (NEO), Greece in April 2014, which addressed Mediterranean Holocene climate and human societies. The workshop was co-sponsored by IGBP/PAGES, NEO, the MISTRALS/PaleoMex program, the Labex OT-Med, the Bolin Centre for Climate Research at Stockholm University, and the Institute of Oceanography at the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research. We also acknowledge funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, within the scheme of the Centre's postdoctoral fellowships (DEC-2012/04/S/HS3/00226 (A.I)); the Swedish Research Council (grant numbers 421-2014-1181 (E.W.) and 621-2012-4344 (K.H.)); CSIC-Ramón y Cajal post-doctoral program RYC-2013-14073 and Clare Hall College, Cambridge, Shackleton Fellowship (B.M.); the EU/FP7 Project ‘Sea for Society’ (Science and Society - 2011-1, 289066)