Growth dynamics of the renal and suprarenal arteries in human foetuses

The kidneys and suprarenal cortex are of common embryonic origin. The suprarenal gland and kidney have a common pathway in angiogenesis. Each of the organs is of key importance for intrauterine and individual development, yet they vary greatly in growth dynamics throughout pregnancy. The authors compared the arterial supply of these organs quantitatively in respect to foetal age and sex

U.S. refugee policy in the era of homeland security: a comparative government analysis

U.S. immigration and refugee policy reform has stalled due to competing national narratives. Claims that refugees harm the U.S. economy and national security are in direct conflict with the country's historical national identity and values, and this is apparent in the public discourse. This thesis explores the validity of these claims and provides a comparative analysis with Canada and Germany, both of which are democratic Western societies facing similar issues. It answers the question of what U.S. policy makers can learn from the refugee policies of Canada and Germany and makes 11 recommendations for the United States based on this analysis. This thesis finds the claims that refugees negatively impact a country's economy and national security in the United States, Canada, and Germany to be unfounded. Basing U.S. refugee policy on unfounded claims harms U.S. standing and credibility in the international community as well as deprives it of the economic and safety benefits of admitting and properly integrating refugees into U.S. society.http://archive.org/details/usrefugeepolicyi1094556749Management and Program Analyst, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Office of Professional ResponsibilityApproved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate

Abstract Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Recent experience with drought and a shifting climate has highlighted the vulnerability of urban water supplies to “running out of water” in Perth, south-east Queensland, Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide and has triggered major investment in water source infrastructure which ultimately will run into tens of billions of dollars. With the prospect of continuing population growth in major cities, the provision of acceptable drought security will become more pressing particularly if the future climate becomes drier. Decision makers need to deal with significant uncertainty about future climate and population. In particular the science of climate change is such that the accuracy of model predictions of future climate is limited by fundamental irreducible uncertainties. It would be unwise to unduly rely on projections made by climate models and prudent to favour solutions that are robust across a range of possible climate futures. This study presents and demonstrates a methodology that addresses the problem of finding “good” solutions for urban bulk water systems in the presence of deep uncertainty about future climate. The methodology involves three key steps: 1) Build a simulation model of the bulk water system; 2) Construct replicates of future climate that reproduce natural variability seen in the instrumental record and that reflect a plausible range of future climates; and 3) Use multi-objective optimisation to efficiently search through potentially trillions of solutions to identify a set of “good” solutions that optimally trade-off expected performance against robustness or sensitivity of performance over the range of future climates. A case study based on the Lower Hunter in New South Wales demonstrates the methodology. It is important to note that the case study does not consider the full suite of options and objectives; preliminary information on plausible options has been generalised for demonstration purposes and therefore its results should only be used in the context of evaluating the methodology. “Dry” and “wet” climate scenarios that represent the likely span of climate in 2070 based on the A1F1 emissions scenario were constructed. Using the WATHNET5 model, a simulation model of the Lower Hunter was constructed and validated. The search for “good” solutions was conducted by minimizing two criteria, 1) the expected present worth cost of capital and operational costs and social costs due to restrictions and emergency rationing, and 2) the difference in present worth cost between the “dry” and “wet” 2070 climate scenarios. The constraint was imposed that solutions must be able to supply (reduced) demand in the worst drought. Two demand scenarios were considered, “1.28 x current demand” representing expected consumption in 2060 and “2 x current demand” representing a highly stressed system. The optimisation considered a representative range of options including desalination, new surface water sources, demand substitution using rainwater tanks, drought contingency measures and operating rules. It was found the sensitivity of solutions to uncertainty about future climate varied considerably. For the “1.28 x demand” scenario there was limited sensitivity to the climate scenarios resulting in a narrow range of trade-offs. In contrast, for the “2 x demand” scenario, the trade-off between expected present worth cost and robustness was considerable. The main policy implication is that (possibly large) uncertainty about future climate may not necessarily produce significantly different performance trajectories. The sensitivity is determined not only by differences between climate scenarios but also by other external stresses imposed on the system such as population growth and by constraints on the available options to secure the system against drought. Please cite this report as: Mortazavi, M, Kuczera, G, Kiem, AS, Henley, B, Berghout, B,Turner, E, 2013 Robust optimisation of urban drought security for an uncertain climate. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 74

Is manual foot lenght measurement of comparable value to ultrasound femur and humerus measurement in anatomical studies for the assessment of foetal age?

Contemporary anatomical studies require reliable methods for determining foetal age. Menstrual age is often found to be inadequate. A combination of several anatomical features showing age-dependency may result both in exact age approximation and pathology detection. The authors compared the manual foot length measurements with the ultrasound femur and humerus length measurements of aborted foetuses in the calculation of foetal age. The correlation between femur length and foot length as well as humerus length and foot length were statistically significant. The expected value formulae for foot length are presented. The authors conclude that foetal age assessment based on foot length metering is reliable before the 7th calendar month of pregnancy and correlates with ultrasound measurements of the humerus and femur

Analyzing SCADA to Understand the Contribution of Hydraulic Pressures to Trunk-main Failure

AbstractWater distribution networks throughout the world are ageing, which increasingly leads to sudden pipe failure. About 108 trunk-main pipe failures in an urban sub-network were investigated using a pipe failure data base and SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) data to understand the contribution of hydraulic pressure to pipe failure using multiple lines of evidence. The forensic investigation revealed a dominant system-wide failure mode which was characterized by predominately off-peak high speed pumping with limited pressure relief from downstream reservoirs. A frequency analysis was conducted for greater understanding of the dominant failure mode

Understanding predictive uncertainty in hydrologic modeling: The challenge of identifying input and structural errors

Meaningful quantification of data and structural uncertainties in conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling is a major scientific and engineering challenge. This paper focuses on the total predictive uncertainty and its decomposition into input and structural components under different inference scenarios. Several Bayesian inference schemes are investigated, differing in the treatment of rainfall and structural uncertainties, and in the precision of the priors describing rainfall uncertainty. Compared with traditional lumped additive error approaches, the quantification of the total predictive uncertainty in the runoff is improved when rainfall and/or structural errors are characterized explicitly. However, the decomposition of the total uncertainty into individual sources is more challenging. In particular, poor identifiability may arise when the inference scheme represents rainfall and structural errors using separate probabilistic models. The inference becomes ill‐posed unless sufficiently precise prior knowledge of data uncertainty is supplied; this ill‐posedness can often be detected from the behavior of the Monte Carlo sampling algorithm. Moreover, the priors on the data quality must also be sufficiently accurate if the inference is to be reliable and support meaningful uncertainty decomposition. Our findings highlight the inherent limitations of inferring inaccurate hydrologic models using rainfall‐runoff data with large unknown errors. Bayesian total error analysis can overcome these problems using independent prior information. The need for deriving independent descriptions of the uncertainties in the input and output data is clearly demonstrated.Benjamin Renard, Dmitri Kavetski, George Kuczera, Mark Thyer, and Stewart W. Frank

Sports anthropological and somatotypical comparison between young male shotputters and javelin throwers of different performance classes and recreational athletes

This study examines anthropometric and somatotypical differences between German male junior shot putters (n = 19) and javelin throwers (n = 19).Recreational athletes (n = 11) served as the control group (age range 16 – 23 years).Overall, the shot-putters were larger and had longer legs and arms as compared to the junior javelin throwers. For the smaller javelin throwers of the higher performance category shorter legs compared to the height of the hull were observed on average. There was a notably shorter leg of the spear throwers. The powerful javelin throwers had longer arms than the less powerful.For all anthropometric widths and depths, and the circumferences and the body weight, the junior shout putters achieved higher values than the spear throwers and recreational athletes.The skinfold thicknesses, the body fat mass and the BMI were highest among the shot putters.The shot putters had the highest values for endomorphy and pyknomorphia (Knussmann), on the other hand, the lowest values for ectomorphy.For the shot putters body height, shoulder width, hand width, foot width, chest circumference, minimal forearm circumference, calf circumference, arm span, plastic index and macrosomia were positively related to performance. Some skinfolds (calf, thigh) correlated negatively with the shot put distances.For the javelin throwers radiale, stylion, dactylion and ectomorphy correlated negatively with the throw widths, but the AKS index, the BMI, the Quetelet index, the Rohrer index, the Livi index, the Pelidisi index, the Broca index, mesomorphy, the metric index and plastic index correlated positively with the performance.The higher class shot putters of the present study achieved a mean somatotype of 2.9 – 5.6 – 1.1 and the higher class javelin throwers of 2.1 – 4.9 – 1.8. As the shot putters and the javelin throwers of the present investigation were rather young, there is still a significant development potential for the mesomorphic component in comparison to Olympians

Safety and efficiency of treatment with cinacalcet of haemodialysed patients with chronic kidney disease and secondary hyperparathyroidism

Introduction: Secondary hyperparathyroidism (sHPT) is a common disorder in haemodialysed patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Cinacalcet increases the sensitivity of calcium receptor to the serum calcium, thus reducing serum parathormone (PTH) concentration. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of six-month treatment with cinacalcet in haemodialysed CKD patients with sHPT in upper Silesia. Material and methods: 71 haemodialysed CKD patients with sHPT (PTH > 300 pg/mL) were enrolled in this study. The target was to decrease PTH concentration below 300 pg/mL. PTH (ECL; Roche, Mannheim, Germany), calcium and phosphate concentration was assessed before the first dose of cinacalcet and then after three and six months of treatment, before haemodialysis session. The results are shown as means and 95% confidence index. Results: 58 patients completed the study. There was a significant decrease in serum PTH concentration from 1,138 pg/mL (931&#8211;1,345 pg/mL) to 772 pg/mL (551&#8211;992 pg/mL) after three months of treatment (p < 0.0001) and to 635 pg/mL (430-839 pg/mL; p < 0.0001) after six months. The target PTH concentration was reached in 25% of the patients after three months and in 45% after six months of treatment. Cinacalcet was ineffective in decreasing serum PTH in 16 (28%) patients. There were no significant differences in serum calcium and phosphate concentration during the observation period. Conclusions: 1. Cinacalcet decreases serum PTH concentration in most haemodialysed CKD patients with sHPT. 2. In 28% of patients, resistance to treatment with cinacalcet was observed. 3. Cinacalcet treatment was well tolerated and caused only a few side effects. (Endokrynol Pol 2013; 64 (2): 176&#8211;181)Wstęp: U hemodializowanych chorych na przewlekłą chorobą nerek (PChN) często występuje wtórna nadczynność przytarczyc. Cynakalcet zwiększa wrażliwość receptora wapniowego na wapń w surowicy krwi i powoduje obniżenie stężenia parathormonu (PTH) w surowicy. Celem badania była ocena bezpieczeństwa i skuteczności sześciomiesięcznego leczenia preparatem cynakalcet hemodializowanych chorych na PChN z sHPT w województwie śląskim. Materiał i metody: Badaniem objęto 71 hemodializowanych chorych na PChN z sHPT. Celem leczenia było zmniejszenie stężenia PTH w surowicy do wartości poniżej 300 pg/ml. U wszystkich chorych na początku badania, jak również po 3 i 6 miesiącach oznaczono stężenia PTH (ECL; Roche, Mannheim, Niemcy), wapnia i fosforanów w surowicy przed zabiegiem hemodializy. Wyniki przedstawiono jako średnie i 95% przedział ufności. Wyniki: Badanie ukończyło 58 osób. Leczenie cynakalcetem doprowadziło do znamiennego obniżenia stężenia PTH z 1138 pg/ml (931&#8211;1345 pg/ml) na początku badania do 772 pg/ml (551&#8211;992 pg/ml) po 3 miesiącach leczenia (p < 0, 0001), a po 6 miesiącach do 635 pg/ml (430&#8211;839 pg/ml; p < 0, 0001). Docelowe stężenie PTH w surowicy osiągnięto u 25% chorych po 3 miesiącach leczenia i u 45% chorych po 6 miesiącach leczenia. U 16 (28%) chorych leczenie cynakalcetem nie spowodowało zmniejszenia stężenia PTH w surowicy. Podczas leczenia preparatem cynakalcet nie obserwowano znamiennych zmian stężenia wapnia i fosforanów w surowicy. Wnioski: 1. Cynakalcet obniża stężenie PTH w surowicy u większości hemodializowanych chorych na PChN z wtórną nadczynnością przytarczyc. 2. U 28% chorych obserwuje się oporność na leczenie preparatem cynakalcet. 3. Leczenie preparatem cynakalcet było u większości chorych dobrze tolerowane i powodowało niewiele działań niepożądanych. (Endokrynol Pol 2013; 64 (2): 176&#8211;181