Quantifying the effect of interannual ocean variability on the attribution of extreme climate events to human influence

In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in computational resources motivate the use of uncoupled, atmosphere/land-only climate models with prescribed ocean conditions run over a short period, leading up to and including an event of interest. In this approach, large ensembles of high-resolution simulations can be generated under factual observed conditions and counterfactual conditions that might have been observed in the absence of human interference; these can be used to estimate the change in probability of the given event due to anthropogenic influence. However, using a prescribed ocean state ignores the possibility that estimates of attributable risk might be a function of the ocean state. Thus, the uncertainty in attributable risk is likely underestimated, implying an over-confidence in anthropogenic influence. In this work, we estimate the year-to-year variability in calculations of the anthropogenic contribution to extreme weather based on large ensembles of atmospheric model simulations. Our results both quantify the magnitude of year-to-year variability and categorize the degree to which conclusions of attributable risk are qualitatively affected. The methodology is illustrated by exploring extreme temperature and precipitation events for the northwest coast of South America and northern-central Siberia; we also provides results for regions around the globe. While it remains preferable to perform a full multi-year analysis, the results presented here can serve as an indication of where and when attribution researchers should be concerned about the use of atmosphere-only simulations

Camera-based spatter detection in laser welding with a deep learning approach

Laser welding, semantic segmentation, u-net, quality assurance, spatter detectio

Observations of aerosol, cloud, turbulence, and radiation properties at the top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopterborne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloadsPostprint (published version

An Overdensity of Extremely Red Objects Around Faint Mid-IR galaxies

We have searched for Extremely Red Objects (EROs) around faint mid-IR selected galaxies in ELAIS fields. We find a significant overdensity, by factors of 2 to 5, of these EROs compared to field EROs in the same region and literature random field ERO counts. The excess is similar to that found previously in the fields of known high redshift quasars and AGN. While with the present data it cannot be definitely shown whether the overdensity is physically connected to the mid-IR source, a derived radial distribution does suggest this. The fraction of EROs among K-selected galaxies is high in the mid-IR fields in agreement with the picture that the EROs responsible for the overdensity are members of high redshift clusters of galaxies. We find R-K>5 selected EROs to be more clustered around the mid-IR galaxies than I-K>4 EROs, though statistics are weak because of small numbers. However, this would be consistent with a cluster/galaxy group scenario if, as we argue, the former colour selection finds preferentially more strongly clustered early type galaxies, whereas the latter selection includes a larger fraction of dusty EROs. Finally, using the mid-IR data, we are able to limit the fraction of ULIRG type very dusty EROs at K<18 magnitude to less than 10% of the total ERO population.Comment: A&A, accepted, 13 pages and 5 ps-fig

The Evolving Landscape of Biomarkers for Anti-PD-1 or Anti-PD-L1 Therapy

The administration of antibodies blocking the immune checkpoint molecules programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) or programmed cell death 1 ligand 1 (PD-L1) has evolved as a very promising treatment option for cancer patients. PD-1/PD-L1 inhibition has significantly enhanced expansion, cytokine secretion, and cytotoxic activity of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes, resulting in enhanced antitumor responses. Anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 therapy has induced tumor regression and improved clinical outcome in patients with different tumor entities, including melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. These findings led to the approval of various anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 antibodies for the treatment of tumor patients. However, the majority of patients have failed to respond to this treatment modality. Comprehensive immune monitoring of clinical trials led to the identification of potential biomarkers distinguishing between responders and non-responders, the discovery of modes of treatment resistance, and the design of improved immunotherapeutic strategies. In this review article, we summarize the evolving landscape of biomarkers for anti-PD-1 or anti-PD-L1 therapy

A process-planning framework for sustainable manufacturing

Process planning in manufacturing today focuses on optimizing the conflicting targets of cost, quality, and time. Due to increasing social awareness and subsequent governmental regulation, environmental impact becomes a fourth major aspect. Eventually, sustainability in manufacturing ensures future competitiveness. In this paper, a framework for the planning of sustainable manufacturing is proposed. It is based on the abstraction and generalization of manufacturing resources and part descriptions, which are matched and ranked using a multi-criteria decision analysis method. Manufacturing resources provide values for cost, quality, time and environmental impacts, which multiply with their usage within a manufacturing task for a specific part. The framework is validated with a detailed modeling of a laser machine as a resource revealing benefits and optimization potential of the underlying data model. Finally, the framework is applied to a use case of a flange part with two different manufacturing strategies, i.e., laser metal-wire deposition and conventional milling. The most influential parameters regarding the environmental impacts are the raw material input, the manufacturing energy consumption and the machine production itself. In general, the framework enabled the identification of non-predetermined manufacturing possibilities and the comprehensive comparison of production resources

Assessing hospitals' clinical risk management: Development of a monitoring instrument

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical risk management (CRM) plays a crucial role in enabling hospitals to identify, contain, and manage risks related to patient safety. So far, no instruments are available to measure and monitor the level of implementation of CRM. Therefore, our objective was to develop an instrument for assessing CRM in hospitals.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The instrument was developed based on a literature review, which identified key elements of CRM. These elements were then discussed with a panel of patient safety experts. A theoretical model was used to describe the level to which CRM elements have been implemented within the organization. Interviews with CRM practitioners and a pilot evaluation were conducted to revise the instrument. The first nationwide application of the instrument (138 participating Swiss hospitals) was complemented by in-depth interviews with 25 CRM practitioners in selected hospitals, for validation purposes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The monitoring instrument consists of 28 main questions organized in three sections: 1) Implementation and organizational integration of CRM, 2) Strategic objectives and operational implementation of CRM at hospital level, and 3) Overview of CRM in different services. The instrument is available in four languages (English, German, French, and Italian). It allows hospitals to gather comprehensive and systematic data on their CRM practice and to identify areas for further improvement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We have developed an instrument for assessing development stages of CRM in hospitals that should be feasible for a continuous monitoring of developments in this important area of patient safety.</p

The tropical Atlantic observing system

The tropical Atlantic is home to multiple coupled climate variations covering a wide range of timescales and impacting societally relevant phenomena such as continental rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, oceanic biological productivity, and atmospheric circulation in the equatorial Pacific. The tropical Atlantic also connects the southern and northern branches of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and receives freshwater input from some of the world’s largest rivers. To address these diverse, unique, and interconnected research challenges, a rich network of ocean observations has developed, building on the backbone of the Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA). This network has evolved naturally over time and out of necessity in order to address the most important outstanding scientific questions and to improve predictions of tropical Atlantic severe weather and global climate variability and change. The tropical Atlantic observing system is motivated by goals to understand and better predict phenomena such as tropical Atlantic interannual to decadal variability and climate change; multidecadal variability and its links to the meridional overturning circulation; air-sea fluxes of CO2 and their implications for the fate of anthropogenic CO2; the Amazon River plume and its interactions with biogeochemistry, vertical mixing, and hurricanes; the highly productive eastern boundary and equatorial upwelling systems; and oceanic oxygen minimum zones, their impacts on biogeochemical cycles and marine ecosystems, and their feedbacks to climate. Past success of the tropical Atlantic observing system is the result of an international commitment to sustained observations and scientific cooperation, a willingness to evolve with changing research and monitoring needs, and a desire to share data openly with the scientific community and operational centers. The observing system must continue to evolve in order to meet an expanding set of research priorities and operational challenges. This paper discusses the tropical Atlantic observing system, including emerging scientific questions that demand sustained ocean observations, the potential for further integration of the observing system, and the requirements for sustaining and enhancing the tropical Atlantic observing system