Regeneration potential of the Baltic Sea inferred from historical records

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with potential immense socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems have started to show signs of regeneration. A key challenge for resource management is to anticipate the degree to which regeneration is possible, given the multiple threats ecosystems face. Here, we show that under current hydroclimatic conditions, complete regeneration of a heavily altered ecosystem –the Baltic Sea as case study– would not be possible. Instead, as the ecosystem regenerates it moves towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of the commercially important Atlantic cod, even under very low exploitation rates. Consequently, societal costs increase due to higher risk premium caused by increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to about 120 million € per year, which equals half of today’s maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines, in combination with increased biomass variability, lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular under climate change.Kiel Cluster of Excellence 'Future Ocean

Baltic cod recruitment – the impact of climate variability on key processes

Large-scale climatic conditions prevailing over the central Baltic Sea resulted in declining salinity and oxygen concentrations in spawning areas of the eastern Baltic cod stock. These changes in hydrography reduced the reproductive success and, combined with high fishing pressure, caused a decline of the stock to the lowest level on record in the early 1990s. The present study aims at disentangling the interactions between reproductive effort and hydrographic forcing leading to variable recruitment. Based on identified key processes, stock dynamics is explained using updated environmental and life stage-specific abundance and production time-series. Declining salinities and oxygen concentrations caused high egg mortalities and indirectly increased egg predation by clupeid fish. Low recruitment, despite enhanced hydrographic conditions for egg survival in the mid-1990s, was due to food limitation for larvae, caused by the decline in the abundance of the copepod Pseudocalanus sp. The case of the eastern Baltic cod stock exemplifies the multitude effects climatic variability may have on a fish stock and underscores the importance of knowledge of these processes for understanding stock dynamics

Supplement: "Localization and broadband follow-up of the gravitational-wave transient GW150914" (2016, ApJL, 826, L13)

This Supplement provides supporting material for Abbott et al. (2016a). We briefly summarize past electromagnetic (EM) follow-up efforts as well as the organization and policy of the current EM follow-up program. We compare the four probability sky maps produced for the gravitational-wave transient GW150914, and provide additional details of the EM follow-up observations that were performed in the different bands

Effects of Data Quality Vetoes on a Search for Compact Binary Coalescences in Advanced LIGO's First Observing Run

The first observing run of Advanced LIGO spanned 4 months, from September 12, 2015 to January 19, 2016, during which gravitational waves were directly detected from two binary black hole systems, namely GW150914 and GW151226. Confident detection of gravitational waves requires an understanding of instrumental transients and artifacts that can reduce the sensitivity of a search. Studies of the quality of the detector data yield insights into the cause of instrumental artifacts and data quality vetoes specific to a search are produced to mitigate the effects of problematic data. In this paper, the systematic removal of noisy data from analysis time is shown to improve the sensitivity of searches for compact binary coalescences. The output of the PyCBC pipeline, which is a python-based code package used to search for gravitational wave signals from compact binary coalescences, is used as a metric for improvement. GW150914 was a loud enough signal that removing noisy data did not improve its significance. However, the removal of data with excess noise decreased the false alarm rate of GW151226 by more than two orders of magnitude, from 1 in 770 years to less than 1 in 186000 years.Comment: 27 pages, 13 figures, published versio

All-sky search for long-duration gravitational wave transients with initial LIGO

We present the results of a search for long-duration gravitational wave transients in two sets of data collected by the LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston detectors between November 5, 2005 and September 30, 2007, and July 7, 2009 and October 20, 2010, with a total observational time of 283.0 days and 132.9 days, respectively. The search targets gravitational wave transients of duration 10–500 s in a frequency band of 40–1000 Hz, with minimal assumptions about the signal waveform, polarization, source direction, or time of occurrence. All candidate triggers were consistent with the expected background; as a result we set 90% confidence upper limits on the rate of long-duration gravitational wave transients for different types of gravitational wave signals. For signals from black hole accretion disk instabilities, we set upper limits on the source rate density between 3.4×10−5 and 9.4×10−4  Mpc−3 yr−1 at 90% confidence. These are the first results from an all-sky search for unmodeled long-duration transient gravitational waves

GW150914: First results from the search for binary black hole coalescence with Advanced LIGO

On September 14, 2015 at 09:50:45 UTC the two detectors of the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) simultaneously observed the binary black hole merger GW150914. We report the results of a matched-filter search using relativistic models of compact-object binaries that recovered GW150914 as the most significant event during the coincident observations between the two LIGO detectors from September 12 to October 20, 2015. GW150914 was observed with a matched filter signal-to-noise ratio of 24 and a false alarm rate estimated to be less than 1 event per 203 000 years, equivalent to a significance greater than 5.1 {\sigma}.Comment: 20 pages, 10 figure

Astrophysical Implications of the Binary Black-Hole Merger GW150914

The discovery of the gravitational-wave (GW) source GW150914 with the Advanced LIGO detectors provides the first observational evidence for the existence of binary black hole (BH) systems that inspiral and merge within the age of the universe. Such BH mergers have been predicted in two main types of formation models, involving isolated binaries in galactic fields or dynamical interactions in young and old dense stellar environments. The measured masses robustly demonstrate that relatively "heavy" BHs (≳25 M⊙) can form in nature. This discovery implies relatively weak massive-star winds and thus the formation of GW150914 in an environment with a metallicity lower than about 1/2 of the solar value. The rate of binary-BH (BBH) mergers inferred from the observation of GW150914 is consistent with the higher end of rate predictions (≳1 Gpc-3 yr-1) from both types of formation models. The low measured redshift (z ≃ 0.1) of GW150914 and the low inferred metallicity of the stellar progenitor imply either BBH formation in a low-mass galaxy in the local universe and a prompt merger, or formation at high redshift with a time delay between formation and merger of several Gyr. This discovery motivates further studies of binary-BH formation astrophysics. It also has implications for future detections and studies by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo, and GW detectors in space