Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development

Catching the future : Applying Bayesian belief networks to exploratory scenario storylines to assess long‐term changes in Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries

Fisheries management aims to ensure that the fishing activities are environmentally sustainable in the long term, while also achieving the economic, social and food security related management objectives. To facilitate this, both the ecological and human dimensions of sustainability need to be included in fisheries assessment. In addition, assessing long-term sustainability calls for taking into account plausible changes in the surrounding societal conditions that shape the characteristics of the fisheries governance system, as well as the ecological conditions. The paper uses a combination of qualitative exploratory scenario storylines (ESS) and Bayesian belief networks (BBN) to integrate the environmental, economic, social and food security dimensions in an interdisciplinary assessment of the future sustainability of Baltic herring (Clupea harengus membras, Clupeidae) and salmon (Salmo salar, Salmonidae) fisheries. First, four alternative ESS were created based on plausible changes in societal drivers. The ESS were then formulated into a BBN to (a) visualize the assumed causalities, and (b) examine quantitatively how changes in the societal drivers affect the social-ecological fisheries system and ultimately the fisheries management objectives. This type of probabilistic scenario synthesis can help in thinking qualitative scenarios in a quantitative way. Moreover, it can increase understanding on the causal links between societal driving forces and the complex fisheries system and on how the management objectives can be achieved, thereby providing valuable information for strategic decision-making under uncertainty.Peer reviewe

Decentralization and Local Institutional Arrangements for Wetland Management in Ethiopia and Sierra Leone.

In Ethiopia and Sierra Leone, recent social, political and environmental transformations have precipitated the intensification of wetland use, as local people have sought to safeguard and strengthen their livelihoods. Concurrent decentralization policies in both countries have also seen the government strengthen its position at the local level. Drawing upon recent field-based evidence from Ethiopia and Sierra Leone, this paper examines the compatibility between community-based local institutions for wetland use, and the process of decentralization. It argues that decentralization has in fact restricted the development of mature local institutional arrangements, due to its intrinsically political interventionist nature

Education for sustainable development in higher education: evaluating coherence between theory and praxis

Universities are an important part of the process of change taking place in society. However, this is often overshadowed by these institutions giving priority to technocratic models in the relationship between science and society. In this context, according to Habermas, theories can serve to clarify practical questions and guide praxis into the right actions (social emancipation and rational autonomy). Habermas introduces the need to evaluate the particular contexts in which scientific arguments are made and assessed. The aim of this study was to develop a set of assessment criteria for education for sustainable development in higher education curricula. These were developed in line with Habermas by introducing further adaptions within the context of education for sustainable development. These criteria were tested in a blended learning master’s programme in Environmental Citizenship and Participation at the Universidade Aberta, Portugal. The following research tools were used as follows: (i) a questionnaire survey to the graduates; (ii) content analysis applied to the information guide and to the abstracts of the dissertations that were produced. The case study revealed that an absence of theoretical frameworks could lead to inconsistencies between theory and praxis. Improvements to curricula are then drawn from this study

Integrated assessment of social and environmental sustainability dynamics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta, Bangladesh

Deltas provide diverse ecosystem services and benefits for their populations. At the same time, deltas are also recognised as one of the most vulnerable coastal environments, with a range of drivers operating at multiple scales, from global climate change and sea-level rise to deltaic-scale subsidence and land cover change. These drivers threaten these ecosystem services, which often provide livelihoods for the poorest communities in these regions. The imperative to maintain ecosystem services presents a development challenge: how to develop deltaic areas in ways that are sustainable and benefit all residents including the most vulnerable. Here we present an integrated framework to analyse changing ecosystem services in deltas and the implications for human well-being, focussing in particular on the provisioning ecosystem services of agriculture, inland and offshore capture fisheries, aquaculture and mangroves that directly support livelihoods. The framework is applied to the world’s most populated delta, the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta within Bangladesh. The framework adopts a systemic perspective to represent the principal biophysical and socio-ecological components and their interaction. A range of methods are integrated within a quantitative framework, including biophysical and socio-economic modelling and analyses of governance through scenario development. The approach is iterative, with learning both within the project team and with national policy-making stakeholders. The analysis is used to explore physical and social outcomes for the delta under different scenarios and policy choices. We consider how the approach is transferable to other deltas and potentially other coastal areas

100 key research questions for the post-2015 development agenda

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) herald a new phase for international development. This article presents the results of a consultative exercise to collaboratively identify 100 research questions of critical importance for the post-2015 international development agenda. The final shortlist is grouped into nine thematic areas and was selected by 21 representatives of international and non-governmental organisations and consultancies, and 14 academics with diverse disciplinary expertise from an initial pool of 704 questions submitted by 110 organisations based in 34 countries. The shortlist includes questions addressing long-standing problems, new challenges and broader issues related to development policies, practices and institutions. Collectively, these questions are relevant for future development-related research priorities of governmental and non- governmental organisations worldwide and could act as focal points for transdisciplinary research collaboration

Population policies, programmes and the environment

Human consumption is depleting the Earth's natural resources and impairing the capacity of life-supporting ecosystems. Humans have changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively over the past 50 years than during any other period, primarily to meet increasing demands for food, fresh water, timber, fibre and fuel. Such consumption, together with world population increasing from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 6.8 billion in 2009, are major contributors to environmental damage. Strengthening family-planning services is crucial to slowing population growth, now 78 million annually, and limiting population size to 9.2 billion by 2050. Otherwise, birth rates could remain unchanged, and world population would grow to 11 billion. Of particular concern are the 80 million annual pregnancies (38% of all pregnancies) that are unintended. More than 200 million women in developing countries prefer to delay their pregnancy, or stop bearing children altogether, but rely on traditional, less-effective methods of contraception or use no method because they lack access or face other barriers to using contraception. Family-planning programmes have a successful track record of reducing unintended pregnancies, thereby slowing population growth. An estimated $15 billion per year is needed for family-planning programmes in developing countries and donors should provide at least$5 billion of the total, however, current donor assistance is less than a quarter of this funding target

Assessing the feasibility of integrating ecosystem-based with engineered water resource governance and management for water security in semi-arid landscapes: A case study in the Banas catchment, Rajasthan, India

Much of the developing world and areas of the developed world suffer water vulnerability. Engineering solutions enable technically efficient extraction and diversion of water towards areas of demand but, without rebalancing resource regeneration, can generate multiple adverse ecological and human consequences. The Banas River, Rajasthan (India), has been extensively developed for water diversion, particularly from the Bisalpur Dam from which water is appropriated by powerful urban constituencies dispossessing local people. Coincidentally, abandonment of traditional management, including groundwater recharge practices, is leading to increasingly receding and contaminated groundwater. This creates linked vulnerabilities for rural communities, irrigation schemes, urban users, dependent ecosystems and the multiple ecosystem services that they provide, compounded by climate change and population growth. This paper addresses vulnerabilities created by fragmented policy measures between rural development, urban and irrigation water supply and downstream consequences for people and wildlife. Perpetuating narrowly technocentric approaches to resource exploitation is likely only to compound emerging problems. Alternatively, restoration or innovation of groundwater recharge practices, particularly in the upper catchment, can represent a proven, ecosystem-based approach to resource regeneration with linked beneficial socio-ecological benefits. Hybridising an ecosystem-based approach with engineered methods can simultaneously increase the security of rural livelihoods, piped urban and irrigation supplies, and the vitality of river ecosystems and their services to beneficiaries. A renewed policy focus on local-scale water recharge practices balancing water extraction technologies is consistent with emerging Rajasthani policies, particularly Jal Swavlamban Abhiyan (‘water self-reliance mission’). Policy reform emphasising recharge can contribute to water security and yield socio-economic outcomes through a systemic understanding of how the water system functions, and by connecting goals and budgets across multiple, currently fragmented policy areas. The underpinning principles of this necessary paradigm shift are proven and have wider geographic relevance, though context-specific research is required to underpin robust policy and practical implementation

To what extent has Sustainable Intensification in England been achieved?

Agricultural intensification has significantly increased yields and fed growing populations across the planet, but has also led to considerable environmental degradation. In response an alternative process of ‘Sustainable Intensification’ (SI), whereby food production increases while environmental impacts are reduced, has been advocated as necessary, if not sufficient, for delivering food and environmental security. However, the extent to which SI has begun, the main drivers of SI, and the degree to which degradation is simply ‘offshored’ are uncertain. In this study we assess agroecosystem services in England and two contrasting sub-regions, majority-arable Eastern England and majority-pastoral South-Western England, since 1950 by analysing ecosystem service metrics and developing a simple system dynamics model. We find that rapid agricultural intensification drove significant environmental degradation in England in the early 1980s, but that most ecosystem services except farmland biodiversity began to recover after 2000, primarily due to reduced livestock and fertiliser usage decoupling from high yields. This partially follows the trajectory of an Environmental Kuznets Curve, with yields and GDP growth decoupling from environmental degradation above ~£17,000 per capita per annum. Together, these trends suggest that SI has begun in England. However, the lack of recovery in farmland biodiversity, and the reduction in UK food self-sufficiency resulting in some agricultural impacts being ‘offshored’, represent major negative trade-offs. Maintaining yields and restoring biodiversity while also addressing climate change, offshored degradation, and post-Brexit subsidy changes will require significant further SI in the future

Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia: Anticipating socioecological challenges from large‐scale infrastructure in a global biodiversity hotspot

Until recently, China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has overlooked many of the social and environmental dimensions of its projects and actions in favor of more immediate economic and sociopolitical considerations. The main focus of investments under BRI has largely been to improve transport, telecommunication, and energy infrastructures. However, in Central Asia, biodiversity is not only foundational for the livelihoods and socioeconomic wellbeing of communities, it also shapes people's culture and identities. Furthermore, ecosystem services derived from functioning landscapes bring enormous benefit for millions of people downstream through integrated and transboundary water systems. Already under pressure from climate-induced melting of glaciers, the fate of ecologically important areas is considered in light of the potential harm arising from large-scale linear infrastructure projects and related investments under China-led BRI. Following review of some of the anticipated impacts of BRI on mountain environments and societies in the region, we highlight several emerging opportunities and then offer recommendations for development programs—aiming fundamentally to enhance the sustainability of BRI investments. Leveraging new opportunities to strengthen partner countries’ priority Sustainable Development Goals and enhancing their agency in the selection of collaborations and the standards to use in environmental impact and risk assessments are recommended