Visualization tools for spatio-temporal time-series analysis with context awareness: Montreal subway case

TRANSITDATA 2019 - 5th International Workshop and Symposium, Paris, FRANCE, 08-/07/2019 - 10/07/2019Forecasting passenger demand is of great interest for public transport operators. Despite the important role that forecasting play in mobility demand understanding, in-depth transport oriented analysis of the forecasting results is often overlooked, since it raised some challenges. In this context we developed two visualization tools with open source frameworks that allow to analyze spatio-temporal time-series forecasting with context awareness. The first visualization tool allows to analyze the forecasting results over large period in all the stations and to zoom in for more precise temporal details. The other tool allows to better understand the passenger demand relations between the different stations of the transport network, and enable a spatial analysis of the results. Analyzed time-series corresponds to the forecast results of the number of passengers entering each station with a fine-grained temporal resolution (15 minutes interval) during one year achieved with a well-known machine learning model, a Random Forest. In order to highlight the spatio-temporal specificity of the passenger demand, we have computed and analyzed the residuals of a long-term forecast model that returns normal passenger demand. Here we show that both visualization tools depict the stations and the period hard to predict and allow to have an insight on which contextual element (weather, event on the city and incident on the transport network) could impact the forecasting. Experiment are performed with real data given by the transport authority of Montreal (Société de transport de Montreal, STM)

Scalable Dynamic Mixture Model with Full Covariance for Probabilistic Traffic Forecasting

Deep learning-based multivariate and multistep-ahead traffic forecasting models are typically trained with the mean squared error (MSE) or mean absolute error (MAE) as the loss function in a sequence-to-sequence setting, simply assuming that the errors follow an independent and isotropic Gaussian or Laplacian distributions. However, such assumptions are often unrealistic for real-world traffic forecasting tasks, where the probabilistic distribution of spatiotemporal forecasting is very complex with strong concurrent correlations across both sensors and forecasting horizons in a time-varying manner. In this paper, we model the time-varying distribution for the matrix-variate error process as a dynamic mixture of zero-mean Gaussian distributions. To achieve efficiency, flexibility, and scalability, we parameterize each mixture component using a matrix normal distribution and allow the mixture weight to change and be predictable over time. The proposed method can be seamlessly integrated into existing deep-learning frameworks with only a few additional parameters to be learned. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on a traffic speed forecasting task and find that our method not only improves model performance but also provides interpretable spatiotemporal correlation structures.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures, 2 tabl

Economic Assessment of Rural District Heating by Bio-Steam Supplied by a Paper Mill in Canada

The article investigates the feasibility of district heating in a small town adjacent to a Kraft pulp mill in eastern Canada. A detailed heat demand analysis is performed for all buildings using a geographical information system and archived data provided by the municipality. The study shows that the entire space heating requirement of the town can be supplied by steam from the mill, even during exceptional peak demands. A screening test based on load density indicators, however, reveals that a district heating serving the entire town would probably not be economically viable. An economic analysis of partial districts show that a district covering about half of the town can be economically viable with a proper balance between the price of the steam sold by the mill to the district operator and the cost of the energy sold to customers

A prospective cohort study assessing clinical referral management & workforce allocation within a UK regional medical genetics service

Abstract Ensuring patient access to genomic information in the face of increasing demand requires clinicians to develop innovative ways of working. This paper presents the first empirical prospective observational cohort study of UK multi-disciplinary genetic service delivery. It describes and explores collaborative working practices including the utilisation and role of clinical geneticists and non-medical genetic counsellors. Six hundred and fifty new patients referred to a regional genetics service were tracked through 850 clinical contacts until discharge. Referral decisions regarding allocation of lead health professional assigned to the case were monitored, including the use of initial clinical contact guidelines. Significant differences were found in the cases led by genetic counsellors and those led by clinical geneticists. Around a sixth, 16.8% (109/650) of referrals were dealt with by a letter back to the referrer or re-directed to another service provider and 14.8% (80/541) of the remaining patients chose not to schedule an appointment. Of the remaining 461 patients, genetic counsellors were allocated as lead health professional for 46.2% (213/461). A further 61 patients did not attend. Of those who did, 86% (345/400) were discharged after one or two appointments. Genetic counsellors contributed to 95% (784/825) of total patient contacts. They provided 93.7% (395/432) of initial contacts and 26.8% (106/395) of patients were discharged at that point. The information from this study informed a planned service re-design. More research is needed to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of different models of collaborative multi-disciplinary working within genetics services. Keywords (MeSH terms) Genetic Services, Genetic Counseling, Interdisciplinary Communication, Cohort Studies, Delivery of Healthcare, Referral and Consultation

Diversity Outbred Mice at 21: Maintaining Allelic Variation in the Face of Selection

Multi-parent populations (MPPs) capture and maintain the genetic diversity from multiple inbred founder strains to provide a resource for high-resolution genetic mapping through the accumulation of recombination events over many generations. Breeding designs that maintain a large effective population size with randomized assignment of breeders at each generation can minimize the impact of selection, inbreeding, and genetic drift on allele frequencies. Small deviations from expected allele frequencies will have little effect on the power and precision of genetic analysis, but a major distortion could result in reduced power and loss of important functional alleles. We detected strong transmission ratio distortion in the Diversity Outbred (DO) mouse population on chromosome 2, caused by meiotic drive favoring transmission of the WSB/EiJ allele at the R2d2 locus. The distorted region harbors thousands of polymorphisms derived from the seven non-WSB founder strains and many of these would be lost if the sweep was allowed to continue. To ensure the utility of the DO population to study genetic variation on chromosome 2, we performed an artificial selection against WSB/EiJ alleles at the R2d2 locus. Here, we report that we have purged the WSB/EiJ allele from the drive locus while preserving WSB/EiJ alleles in the flanking regions. We observed minimal disruption to allele frequencies across the rest of the autosomal genome. However, there was a shift in haplotype frequencies of the mitochondrial genome and an increase in the rate of an unusual sex chromosome aneuploidy. The DO population has been restored to genome-wide utility for genetic analysis, but our experience underscores that vigilant monitoring of similar genetic resource populations is needed to ensure their long-term utility

Dark Matter Constraints from a Joint Analysis of Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy Observations with VERITAS

We present constraints on the annihilation cross section of WIMP dark matter based on the joint statistical analysis of four dwarf galaxies with VERITAS. These results are derived from an optimized photon weighting statistical technique that improves on standard imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope (IACT) analyses by utilizing the spectral and spatial properties of individual photon events. We report on the results of $\sim$230 hours of observations of five dwarf galaxies and the joint statistical analysis of four of the dwarf galaxies. We find no evidence of gamma-ray emission from any individual dwarf nor in the joint analysis. The derived upper limit on the dark matter annihilation cross section from the joint analysis is $1.35\times 10^{-23} {\mathrm{ cm^3s^{-1}}}$ at 1 TeV for the bottom quark ($b\bar{b}$) final state, $2.85\times 10^{-24}{\mathrm{ cm^3s^{-1}}}$ at 1 TeV for the tau lepton ($\tau^{+}\tau^{-}$) final state and $1.32\times 10^{-25}{\mathrm{ cm^3s^{-1}}}$ at 1 TeV for the gauge boson ($\gamma\gamma$) final state.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, published in PRD, Ascii tables containing annihilation cross sections limits are available for download as ancillary files with readme.txt file description of limit

Children's recall and recognition of sex role stereotyped and discrepant information

This research investigated the influence of differing levels of sex role stereotyped and discrepant information on immediate and delayed (one week) memory. Specifically, kindergarten and second-grade children's recall and recognition of stereotyped, moderately discrepant, and highly discrepant pictures were compared. In Study 1, a sorting procedure was utilized to determine the level of stereotyping of 34 toys. From this study 12 toys were selected as stimuli for Study 2. In Study 2, children's immediate and delayed recall and recognition was assessed. Results suggested significantly better recall of highly discrepant pictures than stereotyped or moderately discrepant pictures. In addition, immediate recall was better than delayed recall and second-grade recall was better than kindergarten recall. Similar trends emerged with the recognition task. Results were discussed with respect to the schematic processing model.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/45579/1/11199_2004_Article_BF00289952.pd

A New Multidisciplinary Home Care Telemedicine System to Monitor Stable Chronic Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Patients: A Randomized Study

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy has changed the natural history of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in developed countries, where it has become a chronic disease. This clinical scenario requires a new approach to simplify follow-up appointments and facilitate access to healthcare professionals. METHODOLOGY: We developed a new internet-based home care model covering the entire management of chronic HIV-infected patients. This was called Virtual Hospital. We report the results of a prospective randomised study performed over two years, comparing standard care received by HIV-infected patients with Virtual Hospital care. HIV-infected patients with access to a computer and broadband were randomised to be monitored either through Virtual Hospital (Arm I) or through standard care at the day hospital (Arm II). After one year of follow up, patients switched their care to the other arm. Virtual Hospital offered four main services: Virtual Consultations, Telepharmacy, Virtual Library and Virtual Community. A technical and clinical evaluation of Virtual Hospital was carried out. FINDINGS: Of the 83 randomised patients, 42 were monitored during the first year through Virtual Hospital (Arm I) and 41 through standard care (Arm II). Baseline characteristics of patients were similar in the two arms. The level of technical satisfaction with the virtual system was high: 85% of patients considered that Virtual Hospital improved their access to clinical data and they felt comfortable with the videoconference system. Neither clinical parameters [level of CD4+ T lymphocytes, proportion of patients with an undetectable level of viral load (p = 0.21) and compliance levels >90% (p = 0.58)] nor the evaluation of quality of life or psychological questionnaires changed significantly between the two types of care. CONCLUSIONS: Virtual Hospital is a feasible and safe tool for the multidisciplinary home care of chronic HIV patients. Telemedicine should be considered as an appropriate support service for the management of chronic HIV infection. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinical-Trials.gov: NCT01117675

A transdisciplinary perspective of chronic stress in relation to psychopathology throughout life span development

The allostatic load (AL) model represents an interdisciplinary approach to comprehensively conceptualize and quantify chronic stress in relation to pathologies throughout the life cycle. This article first reviews the AL model, followed by interactions among early adversity, genetics, environmental toxins, as well as distinctions among sex, gender, and sex hormones as integral antecedents of AL. We next explore perspectives on severe mental illness, dementia, and caregiving as unique human models of AL that merit future investigations in the field of developmental psychopathology. A complimenting transdisciplinary perspective is applied throughout, whereby we argue that the AL model goes beyond traditional stress–disease theories toward the advancement of person-centered research and practice that promote not only physical health but also mental healt

Search for supersymmetry at √s=13 TeV in final states with jets and two same-sign leptons or three leptons with the ATLAS detector

A search for strongly produced supersymmetric particles is conducted using signatures involving multiple energetic jets and either two isolated leptons (e or μ μ) with the same electric charge or at least three isolated leptons. The search also utilises b-tagged jets, missing transverse momentum and other observables to extend its sensitivity. The analysis uses a data sample of proton–proton collisions at √s=13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015 corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 3.2 fb −1. No significant excess over the Standard Model expectation is observed. The results are interpreted in several simplified supersymmetric models and extend the exclusion limits from previous searches. In the context of exclusive production and simplified decay modes, gluino masses are excluded at 95% 95% confidence level up to 1.1–1.3 TeV for light neutralinos (depending on the decay channel), and bottom squark masses are also excluded up to 540 GeV. In the former scenarios, neutralino masses are also excluded up to 550–850 GeV for gluino masses around 1 TeV