Household Consumption Through Recent Recessions

This paper examines trends in household consumption and saving behaviour in each of the last three recessions in the UK. The ‘Great Recession’ has been different from those that occurred in the 1980s and 1990s. It has been both deeper and longer, but also the composition of the cutbacks in expenditure differs, with a greater reliance on cuts to nondurable expenditure than was seen in previous recessions, and the distributional pattern across individuals differs. The young have cut back expenditure more than the old, as have mortage holders compared to renters. By contrast, the impact of the recession has been similar across education groups. We present evidence that suggests that two aspects of fiscal policy in the UK in 2008 and 2009 - the temporary reduction in the rate of VAT and a car scrappage scheme – had some success in encouraging households to increase durable purchases.Consumption, Spending, Recessions

Star formation activities in early-type brightest cluster galaxies

We identify a total of 120 early-type Brightest Cluster Galaxies (BCGs) at 0.1<z<0.4 in two recent large cluster catalogues selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). They are selected with strong emission lines in their optical spectra, with both H{\alpha} and [O II]{\lambda}3727 line emission, which indicates significant ongoing star formation. They constitute about ~ 0.5% of the largest, optically-selected, low-redshift BCG sample, and the fraction is a strong function of cluster richness. Their star formation history can be well described by a recent minor and short starburst superimposed on an old stellar component, with the recent episode of star formation contributing on average only less than 1 percent of the total stellar mass. We show that the more massive star-forming BCGs in richer clusters tend to have higher star formation rate (SFR) and specific SFR (SFR per unit galaxy stellar mass). We also compare their statistical properties with a control sample selected from X-ray luminous clusters, and show that the fraction of star-forming BCGs in X-ray luminous clusters is almost one order of magnitude larger than that in optically-selected clusters. BCGs with star formation in cooling flow clusters usually have very flat optical spectra and show the most active star formation, which may be connected with cooling flows.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures and 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

The Extended Blue Continuum and Line Emission around the Central Radio Galaxy in Abell 2597

We present results from detailed imaging of the centrally dominant radio elliptical galaxy in the cooling flow cluster Abell 2597, using data obtained with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This object is one of the archetypal "blue-lobed" cooling flow radio elliptical galaxies, also displaying a luminous emission-line nebula, a compact radio source, and a significant dust lane and evidence of molecular gas in its center. We show that the radio source is surrounded by a complex network of emission-line filaments, some of which display a close spatial association with the outer boundary of the radio lobes. We present a detailed analysis of the physical properties of ionized and neutral gas associated with the radio lobes, and show that their properties are strongly suggestive of direct interactions between the radio plasma and ambient gas. We resolve the blue continuum emission into a series of knots and clumps, and present evidence that these are most likely due to regions of recent star formation. We investigate several possible triggering mechanisms for the star formation, including direct interactions with the radio source, filaments condensing from the cooling flow, or the result of an interaction with a gas-rich galaxy, which may also have been responsible for fueling the active nucleus. We propose that the properties of the source are plausibly explained in terms of accretion of gas by the cD during an interaction with a gas-rich galaxy, which combined with the fact that this object is located at the center of a dense, high-pressure ICM can account for the high rates of star formation and the strong confinement of the radio source.Comment: Astrophysical Journal, in press, 34 pages, includes 6 PostScript figures. Latex format, uses aaspp4.sty and epsf.sty file

Search for gravitational waves from Scorpius X-1 in the second Advanced LIGO observing run with an improved hidden Markov model

We present results from a semicoherent search for continuous gravitational waves from the low-mass x-ray binary Scorpius X-1, using a hidden Markov model (HMM) to track spin wandering. This search improves on previous HMM-based searches of LIGO data by using an improved frequency domain matched filter, the J-statistic, and by analyzing data from Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In the frequency range searched, from 60 to 650 Hz, we find no evidence of gravitational radiation. At 194.6 Hz, the most sensitive search frequency, we report an upper limit on gravitational wave strain (at 95% confidence) of h095%=3.47×10-25 when marginalizing over source inclination angle. This is the most sensitive search for Scorpius X-1, to date, that is specifically designed to be robust in the presence of spin wandering. © 2019 American Physical Society

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

AI is a viable alternative to high throughput screening: a 318-target study

: High throughput screening (HTS) is routinely used to identify bioactive small molecules. This requires physical compounds, which limits coverage of accessible chemical space. Computational approaches combined with vast on-demand chemical libraries can access far greater chemical space, provided that the predictive accuracy is sufficient to identify useful molecules. Through the largest and most diverse virtual HTS campaign reported to date, comprising 318 individual projects, we demonstrate that our AtomNet® convolutional neural network successfully finds novel hits across every major therapeutic area and protein class. We address historical limitations of computational screening by demonstrating success for target proteins without known binders, high-quality X-ray crystal structures, or manual cherry-picking of compounds. We show that the molecules selected by the AtomNet® model are novel drug-like scaffolds rather than minor modifications to known bioactive compounds. Our empirical results suggest that computational methods can substantially replace HTS as the first step of small-molecule drug discovery

CXCR4 identifies transitional bone marrow premonocytes that replenish the mature monocyte pool for peripheral responses

It is well established that Ly6C(hi) monocytes develop from common monocyte progenitors (cMoPs) and reside in the bone marrow (BM) until they are mobilized into the circulation. In our study, we found that BM Ly6C(hi) monocytes are not a homogenous population, as current data would suggest. Using computational analysis approaches to interpret multidimensional datasets, we demonstrate that BM Ly6C(hi) monocytes consist of two distinct subpopulations (CXCR4(hi) and CXCR4(lo) subpopulations) in both mice and humans. Transcriptome studies and in vivo assays revealed functional differences between the two subpopulations. Notably, the CXCR4(hi) subset proliferates and is immobilized in the BM for the replenishment of functionally mature CXCR4(lo) monocytes. We propose that the CXCR4(hi) subset represents a transitional premonocyte population, and that this sequential step of maturation from cMoPs serves to maintain a stable pool of BM monocytes. Additionally, reduced CXCR4 expression on monocytes, upon their exit into the circulation, does not reflect its diminished role in monocyte biology. Specifically, CXCR4 regulates monocyte peripheral cellular activities by governing their circadian oscillations and pulmonary margination, which contributes toward lung injury and sepsis mortality. Together, our study demonstrates the multifaceted role of CXCR4 in defining BM monocyte heterogeneity and in regulating their function in peripheral tissues

GW170817: Observation of Gravitational Waves from a Binary Neutron Star Inspiral

On August 17, 2017 at 12∶41:04 UTC the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave detectors made their first observation of a binary neutron star inspiral. The signal, GW170817, was detected with a combined signal-to-noise ratio of 32.4 and a false-alarm-rate estimate of less than one per 8.0×104  years. We infer the component masses of the binary to be between 0.86 and 2.26  M⊙, in agreement with masses of known neutron stars. Restricting the component spins to the range inferred in binary neutron stars, we find the component masses to be in the range 1.17–1.60  M⊙, with the total mass of the system 2.74+0.04−0.01M⊙. The source was localized within a sky region of 28  deg2 (90% probability) and had a luminosity distance of 40+8−14  Mpc, the closest and most precisely localized gravitational-wave signal yet. The association with the γ-ray burst GRB 170817A, detected by Fermi-GBM 1.7 s after the coalescence, corroborates the hypothesis of a neutron star merger and provides the first direct evidence of a link between these mergers and short γ-ray bursts. Subsequent identification of transient counterparts across the electromagnetic spectrum in the same location further supports the interpretation of this event as a neutron star merger. This unprecedented joint gravitational and electromagnetic observation provides insight into astrophysics, dense matter, gravitation, and cosmology