Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

A search for southern ultracool dwarfs in young moving groups

‘The definitive version is available at www3.interscience.wiley.com '. Copyright Royal Astronomical SocietyWe associate 132 low-mass ultracool dwarfs in the southern hemisphere as candidate members of five moving groups (MGs) using photometric and astrometric selection techniques. Of these objects, we present high-resolution spectroscopy for seven candidates and combine these with previous measurements from the literature to determine spectral types and radial velocities. We thus constrain distance and space motion spectroscopically, allowing the kinematic membership of the MGs to be assessed. Possible membership of MGs has allowed ages and metallicities to be constrained for these objects and evolutionary models have been used to estimate their mass. We estimate that up to ∼75 of our candidate MG members should be genuine, and discuss future work that will confirm and exploit this major new sample.Peer reviewe

A scoping review: urinary markers of metabolic maturation in preterm infants and future interventions to improve growth

Background: growth failure in infants born preterm is a significant issue, increasing the risk of poorer neurodevelopmental outcomes and metabolic syndrome later in life. During the first 1000 days of life biological systems mature rapidly involving developmental programming, cellular senescence, and metabolic maturation, regulating normal growth and development. However, little is known about metabolic maturation in infants born preterm and the relationship with growth. Objective: to examine the available evidence on urinary markers of metabolic maturation and their relationship with growth in infants born preterm. Eligibility criteria: Studies including in this scoping review using qualitative or quantitative methods to describe urinary markers of metabolic maturation and the relationship with growth in infants born preterm. Results: after a screening process 15 titles were included in this review, from 1998-2021 drawing from China (n = 1), Italy (n = 3), Germany (n = 3), Greece (n = 1), Japan (n = 2), Norway (n = 1), Portugal (n = 1), Spain (n = 2) and USA (n = 1). The included studies examined urinary metabolites in 1131 infants. A content analysis identified 4 overarching themes relating to; (i) metabolic maturation relative to gestational age, (ii) metabolic signature and changes in urinary metabolites over time, (iii) nutrition and (iv) growth. Conclusion: the results of this scoping review suggest there are considerable gaps in our knowledge relating to factors associated with metabolic instability, what constitutes normal maturation of preterm infants, and how the development of reference phenome age z scores for metabolites of interest could improve nutritional and growth outcomes.</p

A scoping review: urinary markers of metabolic maturation in infants with CHD and the relationship to growth

Background:Growth failure in infants born with CHD is a persistent problem, even in those provided with adequate nutrition.Objective:To summarise the published data describing the change in urinary metabolites during metabolic maturation in infants with CHD and identify pathways amenable to therapeutic interventionDesign:Scoping review.Eligibility criteria:Studies using qualitative or quantitative methods to describe urinary metabolites pre- and post-cardiac surgery and the relationship with growth in infants with CHD.Sources of evidence:NICE Healthcare Databases website was used as a tool for multiple searches.Results:347 records were identified, of which 37 were duplicates. Following the removal of duplicate records, 310 record abstracts and titles were screened for inclusion. The full texts of eight articles were reviewed for eligibility, of which only two related to infants with CHD. The studies included in the scoping review described urinary metabolites in 42 infants. A content analysis identified two overarching themes of metabolic variation predictive of neurodevelopmental abnormalities associated with anaerobic metabolism and metabolic signature associated with the impact on gut microbiota, inflammation, energy, and lipid digestion.Conclusion:The results of this scoping review suggest that there are considerable gaps in our knowledge relating to metabolic maturation of infants with CHD, especially with respect to growth. Surgery is a key early life feature for CHD infants and has an impact on the developing biochemical phenotype with implications for metabolic pathways involved in immunomodulation, energy, gut microbial, and lipid metabolism. These early life fingerprints may predict those individuals at risk for neurodevelopmental abnormalities