Data assurance in opaque computations

The chess endgame is increasingly being seen through the lens of, and therefore effectively defined by, a data ‘model’ of itself. It is vital that such models are clearly faithful to the reality they purport to represent. This paper examines that issue and systems engineering responses to it, using the chess endgame as the exemplar scenario. A structured survey has been carried out of the intrinsic challenges and complexity of creating endgame data by reviewing the past pattern of errors during work in progress, surfacing in publications and occurring after the data was generated. Specific measures are proposed to counter observed classes of error-risk, including a preliminary survey of techniques for using state-of-the-art verification tools to generate EGTs that are correct by construction. The approach may be applied generically beyond the game domain

Endogenous Technological Change in Energy Systems Models: Synthesis of Experience with ERIS, MARKAL, and MESSAGE

Technological change is widely recognised as a key factor in economic progress, as it enhances the productivity of factor inputs. In recent years also the notion has developed that targeted technological development is a main means to reconcile economic ambitions with ecological considerations. This raises the issue that assessments of future trajectories of for example en-ergy systems should take into account context-specific technological progress. Rather than tak-ing characteristics of existing and emerging technologies as a given, their development should be a function of dedicated Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) and market de-ployment under varying external conditions. Endogenous technological learning has recently shown to be a very promising new feature in energy system models. A learning, or experience curve, describes the specific (investment) cost as a function of the cumulative capacity for a given technology. It reflects the fact that tech-nologies may experience declining costs as a result of its increasing adoption into the society due to the accumulation of knowledge through, among others, processes of learning-by-doing and learning-by-using. This report synthesises the results and findings from experiments with endogenous technologi-cal learning, as reported separately within the EU TEEM project. These experiments have been carried out by three TEEM partners using three models: ERIS (PSI), MARKAL (ECN and PSI), and MESSAGE (IIASA). The main objectives of this synthesis are: to derive common methodo-logical insights; to indicate and assess benefits of the new feature, but also its limitations and issues to solve; and to recommend further research to solve the main issues. This synthesis shows that all model applications are examples of successful first experiments to incorporate the learning-by-doing concept in energy system models. Incorporating the learning-by-doing concept makes an important difference. The experiments demonstrate and quantify the benefits of investing early in emerging technologies that are not competitive at the moment of their deployment. They also show that the long-term impact of policy instruments, such as CO2 taxes or emission limits and RD&D instruments, on technological development can be assessed adequately with models including technology learning. Adopting the concept of endogenous learning, several types of RD&D interventions can be addressed that aim at accelerating the market penetration of new technologies. The directions into which such interventions might lead have been illustrated in some of the experiments. However, quantitative relationships between R&D policy and learning data parameters are still unknow

An insect invasion of Antarctica: the past, present and future distribution of Eretmoptera murphyi (Diptera, Chironomidae) on Signy Island

1. Rising human activity in Antarctica, combined with continued warming of the polar climate, means the risk of non‐native terrestrial species colonising and establishing in its biodiversity‐ and nutrient‐poor ecosystems is increasing. 2. Of the five non‐native invertebrate species currently in terrestrial Antarctica, the flightless midge Eretmoptera murphyi (Schaeffer, The Museum of the Brooklyn Institute of Arts and Sciences 2:90–94, 1914) is perhaps the most persistent insect invader. Accidentally introduced to Signy Island (60°S) in the 1960s from sub‐Antarctic South Georgia (54°S), E. murphyi has steadily increased its distribution, however, its status has not been reassessed for a decade. 3. Here, we update the distribution of E. murphyi on Signy, specifically assessing whether footpaths to regularly visited research sites represent dispersal corridors. 4. Our findings show that both the abundance and range of E. murphyi have increased significantly since 2009, particularly along paths leading away from the original introduction site, and that the species is now on the cusp of moving into new valley systems. 5. We identify a moderate association with soil/substrate and vegetation types and build Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) models to predict areas of the island that may be at highest risk of future colonisation. 6. As a detritivore with no competitors or predators, E. murphyi may have a major impact. For example, accelerating nutrient cycling which may have wider impacts on all levels of biodiversity. 7. This study highlights the need for an assessment of current biosecurity protocols applied within the Antarctic Treaty system, as well as the need for systematic regular monitoring of introduced and invasive species in Antarctica

The relationship between seminal leukocytes, oxidative status in the ejaculate, and apoptotic markers in human spermatozoa

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between seminal leukocytes, reactive oxygen species (ROS) production in the ejaculate, and markers of apoptosis in human spermatozoa. Semen samples were collected from 60 patients attending fertility clinics at the Reproductive Biology Unit at Tygerberg Academic Hospital and Vincent Pallotti Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa. The concentration of seminal leukocytes was determined and was correlated with ROS production in the ejaculate, the percentage of superoxide (·O2 )- and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)-positive spermatozoa, glutathione activation in the ejaculate, and with markers of apoptosis in spermatozoa, namely cysteine-dependent aspartate-directed proteases (caspase)-3/7 activation, mitochondrial membrane potential (ΔΨm), and the percentage of terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase-mediated dUTP-biotin nick end labeling (TUNEL)-positive sperm. Significant correlations with the concentration of seminal leukocytes were found for ROS production in the ejaculate, the percentage of ·O2 -positive spermatozoa, and caspase-3/7 activation in the ejaculate. Leukocytospermic samples showed significantly higher ROS production, percentage of ·O2 -positive sperm, GSH activation, and caspase-3/7 activation compared to non-leukocytospermic samples. The percentage of ·O2 -positive sperm was significantly correlated with sperm ΔΨm and caspase-3/7 activation in the ejaculate. Sperm ΔΨm and TUNEL-positive sperm did not correlate with seminal leukocyte concentration. Data demonstrate that high seminal leukocyte concentrations that leads to increased seminal ROS production, and is also associated with caspase activation in the male germ cell and increased mitochondrial ROS production. The latter could possibly be a result of disturbed ΔΨm. The activation of caspase-3/7 could then follow the increased intrinsic superoxide levels due to depleted intrinsic glutathione (GSH). These cellular events might not directly and immediately lead to DNA fragmentation as an endpoint of apoptosis because of topological hindrances.Web of Scienc

Multidimensional Conservation Laws: Overview, Problems, and Perspective

Some of recent important developments are overviewed, several longstanding open problems are discussed, and a perspective is presented for the mathematical theory of multidimensional conservation laws. Some basic features and phenomena of multidimensional hyperbolic conservation laws are revealed, and some samples of multidimensional systems/models and related important problems are presented and analyzed with emphasis on the prototypes that have been solved or may be expected to be solved rigorously at least for some cases. In particular, multidimensional steady supersonic problems and transonic problems, shock reflection-diffraction problems, and related effective nonlinear approaches are analyzed. A theory of divergence-measure vector fields and related analytical frameworks for the analysis of entropy solutions are discussed.Comment: 43 pages, 3 figure

Scientific concepts and methods for moving persistence assessments into the 21st century

34 páginas.- 2 figuras.- 3 tablas.- 225 referenciasThe evaluation of a chemical substance's persistence is key to understanding its environmental fate, exposure concentration, and, ultimately, environmental risk. Traditional biodegradation test methods were developed many years ago for soluble, nonvolatile, single-constituent test substances, which do not represent the wide range of manufactured chemical substances. In addition, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) screening and simulation test methods do not fully reflect the environmental conditions into which substances are released and, therefore, estimates of chemical degradation half-lives can be very uncertain and may misrepresent real environmental processes. In this paper, we address the challenges and limitations facing current test methods and the scientific advances that are helping to both understand and provide solutions to them. Some of these advancements include the following: (1) robust methods that provide a deeper understanding of microbial composition, diversity, and abundance to ensure consistency and/or interpret variability between tests; (2) benchmarking tools and reference substances that aid in persistence evaluations through comparison against substances with well-quantified degradation profiles; (3) analytical methods that allow quantification for parent and metabolites at environmentally relevant concentrations, and inform on test substance bioavailability, biochemical pathways, rates of primary versus overall degradation, and rates of metabolite formation and decay; (4) modeling tools that predict the likelihood of microbial biotransformation, as well as biochemical pathways; and (5) modeling approaches that allow for derivation of more generally applicable biotransformation rate constants, by accounting for physical and/or chemical processes and test system design when evaluating test data. We also identify that, while such advancements could improve the certainty and accuracy of persistence assessments, the mechanisms and processes by which they are translated into regulatory practice and development of new OECD test guidelines need improving and accelerating. Where uncertainty remains, holistic weight of evidence approaches may be required to accurately assess the persistence of chemicals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;1–34. © 2022 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).Peer reviewe

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0�59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3�5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization�s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99 of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40 and wasting to less than 5 by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s)

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector during 2011 data taking

The performance of the jet trigger for the ATLAS detector at the LHC during the 2011 data taking period is described. During 2011 the LHC provided proton–proton collisions with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and heavy ion collisions with a 2.76 TeV per nucleon–nucleon collision energy. The ATLAS trigger is a three level system designed to reduce the rate of events from the 40 MHz nominal maximum bunch crossing rate to the approximate 400 Hz which can be written to offline storage. The ATLAS jet trigger is the primary means for the online selection of events containing jets. Events are accepted by the trigger if they contain one or more jets above some transverse energy threshold. During 2011 data taking the jet trigger was fully efficient for jets with transverse energy above 25 GeV for triggers seeded randomly at Level 1. For triggers which require a jet to be identified at each of the three trigger levels, full efficiency is reached for offline jets with transverse energy above 60 GeV. Jets reconstructed in the final trigger level and corresponding to offline jets with transverse energy greater than 60 GeV, are reconstructed with a resolution in transverse energy with respect to offline jets, of better than 4 % in the central region and better than 2.5 % in the forward direction