Personalized Mammography Screening and Screening Adherence : A Simulation and Economic Evaluation

Objective: Personalized breast cancer screening has so far been economically evaluated under the assumption of full screening adherence. This is the first study to evaluate the effects of nonadherence on the evaluation and selection of personalized screening strategies. Methods: Different adherence scenarios were established on the basis of findings from the literature. A Markov microsimulation model was adapted to evaluate the effects of these adherence scenarios on three different personalized strategies. Results: First, three adherence scenarios describing the relationship between risk and adherence were identified: 1) a positive association between risk and screening adherence, 2) a negative association, or 3) a curvilinear relationship. Second, these three adherence scenarios were evaluated in three personalized strategies. Our results show that it is more the absolute adherence rate than the nature of the risk-adherence relationship that is important to determine which strategy is the most cost-effective. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed that there are risk-stratified screening strategies that are more cost-effective than routine screening if the willingness-to-pay threshold for screening is below US $60,000. Conclusions: Our results show that "nonadherence" affects the relative performance of screening strategies. Thus, it is necessary to include the true adherence level to evaluate personalized screening strategies and to select the best strategy

Is risk-stratified breast cancer screening economically efficient in Germany?

Objectives Risk stratification has so far been evaluated under the assumption that women fully adhere to screening recommendations. However, the participation in German cancer screening programs remains low at 54%. The question arises whether risk-stratified screening is economically efficient under the assumption that adherence is not perfect. Method We have adapted a micro-simulation Markov model to the German context. Annual, biennial, and triennial routine screening are compared with five risk-adapted strategies using thresholds of relative risk to stratify screening frequencies. We used three outcome variables (mortality reduction, quality-adjusted life years, and false-positive results) under the assumption of full adherence vs. an adherence rate of 54%. Strategies are evaluated using efficiency frontiers and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). Results The reduced adherence rate affects both performance and cost; incremental cost-effectiveness ratios remain constant. The results of PSA show that risk-stratified screening strategies are more efficient than biennial routine screening under certain conditions. At any willingness-to-pay (WTP), there is a risk-stratified alternative with a higher likelihood of being the best choice. However, without explicit decision criteria and WTP, risk-stratified screening is not more efficient than biennial routine screening. Potential improvements in the adherence rates have significant health gains and budgetary implications. Conclusion If the participation rate for mammographic screening is as low as in Germany, stratified screening is not clearly more efficient than routine screening but dependent on the WTP. A more promising design for future stratified strategies is the combination of risk stratification mechanisms with interventions to improve the low adherence in selected high-risk groups

Distinct populations of inflammatory fibroblasts and myofibroblasts in pancreatic cancer

Pancreatic stellate cells (PSCs) differentiate into cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) that produce desmoplastic stroma, thereby modulating disease progression and therapeutic response in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA). However, it is unknown whether CAFs uniformly carry out these tasks or if subtypes of CAFs with distinct phenotypes in PDA exist. We identified a CAF subpopulation with elevated expression of alpha-smooth muscle actin (alphaSMA) located immediately adjacent to neoplastic cells in mouse and human PDA tissue. We recapitulated this finding in co-cultures of murine PSCs and PDA organoids, and demonstrated that organoid-activated CAFs produced desmoplastic stroma. The co-cultures showed cooperative interactions and revealed another distinct subpopulation of CAFs, located more distantly from neoplastic cells, which lacked elevated alphaSMA expression and instead secreted IL6 and additional inflammatory mediators. These findings were corroborated in mouse and human PDA tissue, providing direct evidence for CAF heterogeneity in PDA tumor biology with implications for disease etiology and therapeutic development

A systematic review of progranulin concentrations in biofluids in over 7,000 people—assessing the pathogenicity of GRN mutations and other influencing factors

Background: Pathogenic heterozygous mutations in the progranulin gene (GRN) are a key cause of frontotemporal dementia (FTD), leading to significantly reduced biofluid concentrations of the progranulin protein (PGRN). This has led to a number of ongoing therapeutic trials aiming to treat this form of FTD by increasing PGRN levels in mutation carriers. However, we currently lack a complete understanding of factors that affect PGRN levels and potential variation in measurement methods. Here, we aimed to address this gap in knowledge by systematically reviewing published literature on biofluid PGRN concentrations. Methods: Published data including biofluid PGRN concentration, age, sex, diagnosis and GRN mutation were collected for 7071 individuals from 75 publications. The majority of analyses (72%) had focused on plasma PGRN concentrations, with many of these (56%) measured with a single assay type (Adipogen) and so the influence of mutation type, age at onset, sex, and diagnosis were investigated in this subset of the data. Results: We established a plasma PGRN concentration cut-off between pathogenic mutation carriers and non-carriers of 74.8 ng/mL using the Adipogen assay based on 3301 individuals, with a CSF concentration cut-off of 3.43 ng/mL. Plasma PGRN concentration varied by GRN mutation type as well as by clinical diagnosis in those without a GRN mutation. Plasma PGRN concentration was significantly higher in women than men in GRN mutation carriers (p = 0.007) with a trend in non-carriers (p = 0.062), and there was a significant but weak positive correlation with age in both GRN mutation carriers and non-carriers. No significant association was seen with weight or with TMEM106B rs1990622 genotype. However, higher plasma PGRN levels were seen in those with the GRN rs5848 CC genotype in both GRN mutation carriers and non-carriers. Conclusions: These results further support the usefulness of PGRN concentration for the identification of the large majority of pathogenic mutations in the GRN gene. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering additional factors, such as mutation type, sex and age when interpreting PGRN concentrations. This will be particularly important as we enter the era of trials for progranulin-associated FTD.</p

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification

The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1,395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; and 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared with information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known nonpathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification

Mortality and pulmonary complications in patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection: an international cohort study

Background: The impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: This international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation. Findings: This analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28–2·40], p\textless0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65–3·22], p\textless0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3–5 versus grades 1–2 (2·35 [1·57–3·53], p\textless0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01–2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06–2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01–2·31], p=0·047). Interpretation: Postoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery. Funding: National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research

Large scale multifactorial likelihood quantitative analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants: An ENIGMA resource to support clinical variant classification

Abstract The multifactorial likelihood analysis method has demonstrated utility for quantitative assessment of variant pathogenicity for multiple cancer syndrome genes. Independent data types currently incorporated in the model for assessing BRCA1 and BRCA2 variants include clinically calibrated prior probability of pathogenicity based on variant location and bioinformatic prediction of variant effect, co-segregation, family cancer history profile, co-occurrence with a pathogenic variant in the same gene, breast tumor pathology, and case-control information. Research and clinical data for multifactorial likelihood analysis were collated for 1395 BRCA1/2 predominantly intronic and missense variants, enabling classification based on posterior probability of pathogenicity for 734 variants: 447 variants were classified as (likely) benign, and 94 as (likely) pathogenic; 248 classifications were new or considerably altered relative to ClinVar submissions. Classifications were compared to information not yet included in the likelihood model, and evidence strengths aligned to those recommended for ACMG/AMP classification codes. Altered mRNA splicing or function relative to known non-pathogenic variant controls were moderately to strongly predictive of variant pathogenicity. Variant absence in population datasets provided supporting evidence for variant pathogenicity. These findings have direct relevance for BRCA1 and BRCA2 variant evaluation, and justify the need for gene-specific calibration of evidence types used for variant classification. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Changes in risk calculation for the intensified surveillance programme of the German Consortium for Breast and Ovarian Cancer

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. About 30% of breast cancer patients have a family history of breast cancer and fulfil the inclusion criteria of the German Consortium (DK) Familial Breast and Ovarian Cancer. Women from these families in whom a mutation in one of the known cancer genes is detected are offered, among other things, the opportunity to participate in the intensified surveillance programme (INFP). However, if no mutation is found in a family, the decision to recommend intensified surveillance is based on the calculated risk. Preliminary results of the DK suggest that there is a need to improve the efficiency of the INFP and to continue the evaluation. So far, the risk calculation program Cyrillic has been used by the DK. However, as Cyrillic is outdated in terms of content and technology, DK will use the BOADICEA program in the future. BOADICEA was chosen for the following reasons: (i) it is scientifically up to date, (ii) it provides more accurate risk calculations taking into account new risk genes and (iii) it has been developed and validated using data from the DK and other populations. The change in the risk calculation procedure implies that different breast cancer risks are calculated for the women concerned. Therefore, new rules for risk classification have to be defined in order to improve the efficiency of the current INFP