Diversity and carbon storage across the tropical forest biome

Tropical forests are global centres of biodiversity and carbon storage. Many tropical countries aspire to protect forest to fulfil biodiversity and climate mitigation policy targets, but the conservation strategies needed to achieve these two functions depend critically on the tropical forest tree diversity-carbon storage relationship. Assessing this relationship is challenging due to the scarcity of inventories where carbon stocks in aboveground biomass and species identifications have been simultaneously and robustly quantified. Here, we compile a unique pan-tropical dataset of 360 plots located in structurally intact old-growth closed-canopy forest, surveyed using standardised methods, allowing a multi-scale evaluation of diversity-carbon relationships in tropical forests. Diversity-carbon relationships among all plots at 1 ha scale across the tropics are absent, and within continents are either weak (Asia) or absent (Amazonia, Africa). A weak positive relationship is detectable within 1 ha plots, indicating that diversity effects in tropical forests may be scale dependent. The absence of clear diversity-carbon relationships at scales relevant to conservation planning means that carbon-centred conservation strategies will inevitably miss many high diversity ecosystems. As tropical forests can have any combination of tree diversity and carbon stocks both require explicit consideration when optimising policies to manage tropical carbon and biodiversity.Additional co-authors: Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Shin-ichiro Aiba, Everton Cristo de Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Esteban Álvarez Dávila, Ana Andrade, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Peter Ashton, Gerardo A. Aymard C., Timothy R. Baker, Michael Balinga, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Jean-Francois Bastin, Nicholas Berry, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Roel Brienen, José Luís C. Camargo, Carlos Cerón, Victor Chama Moscoso, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Álvaro Cogollo Pacheco, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Greta Dargie, Stuart J. Davies, Charles De Canniere, Marie Noel Djuikouo K., Jean-Louis Doucet, Terry L. Erwin, Javier Silva Espejo, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Sophie Fauset, Ted R. Feldpausch, Rafael Herrera, Martin Gilpin, Emanuel Gloor, Jefferson S. Hall, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Kuswata Kartawinata, Lip Khoon Kho, Kanehiro Kitayama, Susan G. W. Laurance, William F. Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Thomas Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Faustin Mpanya Lukasu, Jean-Remy Makana, Yadvinder Malhi, Leandro Maracahipes, Beatriz S. Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Paulo S. Morandi, John Tshibamba Mukendi, Jaques Mukinzi, Reuben Nilus, Percy Núñez Vargas, Nadir C. Pallqui Camacho, Guido Pardo, Marielos Peña-Claros, Pascal Pétronelli, Georgia C. Pickavance, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Richard B. Primack, Hari Priyadi, Carlos A. Quesada, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Réjou-Méchain, Zorayda Restrepo, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomão, Ismayadi Samsoedin, Douglas Sheil, Rodrigo Sierra, Marcos Silveira, J. W. Ferry Slik, Lisa Steel, Hermann Taedoumg, Sylvester Tan, John W. Terborgh, Sean C. Thomas, Marisol Toledo, Peter M. Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Ima Célia Guimarães Vieira, Vincent A. Vos, Ophelia Wang, Simon Willcock & Lise Zemagh

Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate

Consistent patterns of common species across tropical tree communities

Trees structure the Earth’s most biodiverse ecosystem, tropical forests. The vast number of tree species presents a formidable challenge to understanding these forests, including their response to environmental change, as very little is known about most tropical tree species. A focus on the common species may circumvent this challenge. Here we investigate abundance patterns of common tree species using inventory data on 1,003,805 trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm across 1,568 locations1,2,3,4,5,6 in closed-canopy, structurally intact old-growth tropical forests in Africa, Amazonia and Southeast Asia. We estimate that 2.2%, 2.2% and 2.3% of species comprise 50% of the tropical trees in these regions, respectively. Extrapolating across all closed-canopy tropical forests, we estimate that just 1,053 species comprise half of Earth’s 800 billion tropical trees with trunk diameters of at least 10 cm. Despite differing biogeographic, climatic and anthropogenic histories7, we find notably consistent patterns of common species and species abundance distributions across the continents. This suggests that fundamental mechanisms of tree community assembly may apply to all tropical forests. Resampling analyses show that the most common species are likely to belong to a manageable list of known species, enabling targeted efforts to understand their ecology. Although they do not detract from the importance of rare species, our results open new opportunities to understand the world’s most diverse forests, including modelling their response to environmental change, by focusing on the common species that constitute the majority of their trees.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Blue Hill Ship Building

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Nationwide population-based study of trends and regional variation in breast-conserving treatment for breast cancer

Background: Landmark trials have shown breast‐conserving surgery (BCS) combined with radiotherapy to be as safe as mastectomy in breast cancer treatment. This population‐based study aimed to evaluate trends in BCS from 1989 to 2015 in nine geographical regions in the Netherlands. Methods: All women diagnosed between 1989 and 2015 with primary T1–2 N0–1 breast cancer, treated with BCS or mastectomy, were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Crude and case mix‐adjusted rates of BCS were evaluated and compared between nine Dutch regions for two time intervals: 1989–2002 and 2003–2015. The annual percentage change in BCS per region over time was assessed by means of Joinpoint regression analyses. Explanatory variables associated with the choice of initial surgery were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Results: A total of 202 934 patients were included, 82 200 treated in 1989–2002 and 120 734 in 2003–2015. During 1989–2002, the mean rate of BCS was 50·6 per cent, varying significantly from 39·0 to 71·7 per cent between the nine regions. For most regions, a marked rise in BCS was observed between 2002 and 2003. During 2003–2015, the mean rate of BCS increased to 67·4 per cent, but still varied significantly between regions from 58·5 to 75·5 per cent. A significant variation remained after case‐mix correction. Conclusion: This large nationwide study showed that the use of BCS increased from 1989 to 2015 in the Netherlands. After adjustment for explanatory variables, a large variation still existed between the nine regions. This regional variation underlines the need for implementation of a uniform treatment and decision‐making strategy