Medical decision making for patients with Parkinson disease under Average Cost Criterion

Parkinson's disease (PD) is one of the most common disabling neurological disorders and results in substantial burden for patients, their families and the as a whole society in terms of increased health resource use and poor quality of life. For all stages of PD, medication therapy is the preferred medical treatment. The failure of medical regimes to prevent disease progression and to prevent long-term side effects has led to a resurgence of interest in surgical procedures. Partially observable Markov decision models (POMDPs) are a powerful and appropriate technique for decision making. In this paper we applied the model of POMDP's as a supportive tool to clinical decisions for the treatment of patients with Parkinson's disease. The aim of the model was to determine the critical threshold level to perform the surgery in order to minimize the total lifetime costs over a patient's lifetime (where the costs incorporate duration of life, quality of life, and monetary units). Under some reasonable conditions reflecting the practical meaning of the deterioration and based on the various diagnostic observations we find an optimal average cost policy for patients with PD with three deterioration levels

Allosteric effects in cyclophilin mutants may be explained by changes in nano-microsecond time scale motions

The relationship between molecular motion and catalysis in enzymes is debated. Here, simulations of cyclophilin A and three catalytically-impaired mutants reveal a nanosecond-scale interconversion between active and inactive conformations, orders of magnitude faster than previously suggested

Long-term effects of STN DBS on mood: psychosocial profiles remain stable in a 3-year follow-up

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Deep brain stimulation of the subthalamic nucleus significantly improves motor function in patients with severe Parkinson's disease. However, the effects on nonmotor aspects remain uncertain. The present study investigated the effects of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation on mood and psychosocial functions in 33 patients with advanced Parkinson's disease in a three year follow-up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Self-rating questionnaires were administered to 33 patients prior to surgery as well as three, six, twelve and 36 months after surgery.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the long run, motor function significantly improved after surgery. Mood and psychosocial functions transiently improved at one year but returned to baseline at 36 months after surgery. In addition, we performed cluster and discriminant function analyses and revealed four distinct psychosocial profiles, which remained relatively stable in the course of time. Two profiles featured impaired psychosocial functioning while the other two of them were characterized by greater psychosocial stability.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Compared to baseline no worsening in mood and psychosocial functions was found three years after electrode implantation. Moreover, patients can be assigned to four distinct psychosocial profiles that are relatively stable in the time course. Since these subtypes already exist preoperatively the extent of psychosocial support can be anticipatory adjusted to the patients' needs in order to enhance coping strategies and compliance. This would allow early detection and even prevention of potential psychiatric adverse events after surgery. Given adequate psychosocial support, these findings imply that patients with mild psychiatric disturbances should not be excluded from surgery.</p

We should not be complacent about our population-based public health response to the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century

Background: More than a year after an influenza pandemic was declared in June 2009, the World Health Organization declared the pandemic to be over. Evaluations of the pandemic response are beginning to appear in the public domain. Discussion. We argue that, despite the enormous effort made to control the pandemic, it is now time to acknowledge that many of the population-based public health interventions may not have been well considered. Prior to the pandemic, there was limited scientific evidence to support border control measures. In particular no border screening measures would have detected prodromal or asymptomatic infections, and asymptomatic infections with pandemic influenza were common. School closures, when they were partial or of short duration, would not have interrupted spread of the virus in school-aged children, the group with the highest rate of infection worldwide. In most countries where they were available, neuraminidase inhibitors were not distributed quickly enough to have had an effect at the population level, although they will have benefited individuals, and prophylaxis within closed communities will have been effective. A pandemic specific vaccine will have protected the people who received it, although in most countries only a small minority was vaccinated, and often a small minority of those most at risk. The pandemic vaccine was generally not available early enough to have influenced the shape of the first pandemic wave and it is likely that any future pandemic vaccine manufactured using current technology will also be available too late, at least in one hemisphere. Summary. Border screening, school closure, widespread anti-viral prophylaxis and a pandemic-specific vaccine were unlikely to have been effective during a pandemic which was less severe than anticipated in the pandemic plans of many countries. These were cornerstones of the population-based public health response. Similar responses would be even less likely to be effective in a more severe pandemic. We agree with the recommendation from the World Health Organisation that pandemic preparedness plans need review

Genetic instability and anti-HPV immune response as drivers of infertility associated with HPV infection

Funding Information: RFBR grant 17–54-30002, Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement No. 075–15–2019-1660) to Olga Smirnova. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a sexually transmitted infection common among men and women of reproductive age worldwide. HPV viruses are associated with epithelial lesions and cancers. HPV infections have been shown to be significantly associated with many adverse effects in reproductive function. Infection with HPVs, specifically of high-oncogenic risk types (HR HPVs), affects different stages of human reproduction, resulting in a series of adverse outcomes: 1) reduction of male fertility (male infertility), characterized by qualitative and quantitative semen alterations; 2) impairment of couple fertility with increase of blastocyst apoptosis and reduction of endometrial implantation of trophoblastic cells; 3) defects of embryos and fetal development, with increase of spontaneous abortion and spontaneous preterm birth. The actual molecular mechanism(s) by which HPV infection is involved remain unclear. HPV-associated infertility as Janus, has two faces: one reflecting anti-HPV immunity, and the other, direct pathogenic effects of HPVs, specifically, of HR HPVs on the infected/HPV-replicating cells. Adverse effects observed for HR HPVs differ depending on the genotype of infecting virus, reflecting differential response of the host immune system as well as functional differences between HPVs and their individual proteins/antigens, including their ability to induce genetic instability/DNA damage. Review summarizes HPV involvement in all reproductive stages, evaluate the adverse role(s) played by HPVs, and identifies mechanisms of viral pathogenicity, common as well as specific for each stage of the reproduction process.publishersversionPeer reviewe

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Summary: Background Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group

Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3.5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.Peer reviewe

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. Methods For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Findings Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3.3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.1-3.4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2.6 million per year (range 2.5-2.8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38.8 million (95% UI 37.6-40.4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1.8 million deaths (95% UI 1.7-1.9 million) in 2005, to 1.2 million deaths (1.1-1.3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Interpretation Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY licensePeer reviewe

Investigations on the role of mixed convection and wall friction factor in single-phase natural circulation loop dynamics

The objective of the present paper is to present a 1-D model for simulating the startup from rest of water cooled single-phase natural circulation loops having horizontal heaters. The starting point of analysis is the inability of the 1-D codes to account for natural convection in the heater. Present 1-D models are unable to account for axial diffusion in the fluid caused by natural convection. Start-up from rest and many other characteristics cannot be simulated using classical 1-D models because of the inherent tendency of the predicted dynamics to be attracted by zero flow condition. The paper presents an elegant approach for taking into account both natural and forced convection. The enhancement of fluid motion and thermal mixing by natural convection is an important consideration in the design of nuclear reactors. Hence, the model developed is of direct relevance to nuclear reactor thermal hydraulics. The model developed for natural convection has been validated against the CFD simulations. The model developed has been incorporated in a classical 1-D model developed by the authors previously. The application of model to a rectangular single-phase natural circulation loop show that the model can predict the loop behavior from start-up with fidelity. The model reproduces most of the characteristics like unidirectional oscillation, bidirectional oscillations and chaotic switching reasonably well. Finally, model has been used to investigate the phenomenon of hysteresis observed in experimental loop. The paper also brings out the role of constitutive laws for wall friction in predicting the loop dynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved