Leverage Effect In Chinese And American Index Returns

A lot of changes have happened in the Chinese economy in the last three decades. To study whether these changes affect the symmetric or asymmetric behavior of the volatility in Chinese Stock Market, in this paper we analyze, first, the main stylized facts in similar Chinese and American index returns and, second, we compare the leverage effect of volatility in three different periods for these indexes.The estimated results with GJR-GARCH and TA-ARSV models have shown that the behaviour of Chinese index returns was different depending on whether China was part of the Trade World Trade Organization (WTO)

The Discrete Multicriteria Decision Methods And ARSV Model Used To Choice The Best Exchange Rate

The exchange rate is a variable that economic agents have in consideration. For this reason, in this paper we suggest a decision method to compare several exchange rates. This method is the Promethee Method and it is a Multicriteria Decision Method used to order the preference between returns of the different exchange rates. We have used different statistic criteria to rank these exchange rates. To obtain the pay-off matrix it has been used one econometric model: Autoregressive Stochastic Volatility (ARSV) Model. We have proposed different generalized criteria and their corresponding thresholds. Both are used to evaluate the different exchange rate returns in the decision matrix or the pay-off matrix. These thresholds are suggested according to the obtained results in the decision matrix. Finally, we have obtained the best solution of the problem when all the criteria have the same importance for the decision-maker

Rankings In The Euro Zone Based On Macroeconomic Information

One consequence of the Great Recession that began in 2008 has been the sovereign debt crisis within the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the increasing risk premium associated with government debt of "peripheral" countries (primarily, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain). Firstly, this paper analyses what macroeconomic variables are more related with the evolution of the risk premium, using panel data estimation. Secondly, we also try to sort the countries belonging to the monetary union in terms of their likelihood of experiencing an increase in the risk premium. To this purpose, we use discrete multicriteria decision aid methods

Cultural Tourism, Using A Multicriteria Analysis: Spanish World Heritage Cities

The city tourism has become a subject of growing interest in tourism research, in a dynamic sector and with a particularly complex behaviour. In this scenario, the management of available information turns out to be difficult. Until now, specialized literature in tourism has been focused on general analysis, but down to a higher level of disaggregation (cities), presents a greater complexity. This paper aims to classify cities declared World Heritage by UNESCO on the basis of information available, by applying a multicriteria decision aid method: The Promethee

Different Host Exploitation Strategies in Two Zebra Mussel-Trematode Systems: Adjustments of Host Life History Traits

The zebra mussel is the intermediate host for two digenean trematodes, Phyllodistomum folium and Bucephalus polymorphus, infecting gills and the gonad respectively. Many gray areas exist relating to the host physiological disturbances associated with these infections, and the strategies used by these parasites to exploit their host without killing it. The aim of this study was to examine the host exploitation strategies of these trematodes and the associated host physiological disturbances. We hypothesized that these two parasite species, by infecting two different organs (gills or gonads), do not induce the same physiological changes. Four cellular responses (lysosomal and peroxisomal defence systems, lipidic peroxidation and lipidic reserves) in the host digestive gland were studied by histochemistry and stereology, as well as the energetic reserves available in gonads. Moreover, two indices were calculated related to the reproductive status and the physiological condition of the organisms. Both parasites induced adjustments of zebra mussel life history traits. The host-exploitation strategy adopted by P. folium would occur during a short-term period due to gill deformation, and could be defined as “virulent.” Moreover, this parasite had significant host gender-dependent effects: infected males displayed a slowed-down metabolism and energetic reserves more allocated to growth, whereas females displayed better defences and would allocate more energy to reproduction and maintenance. In contrast, B. polymorphus would be a more “prudent” parasite, exploiting its host during a long-term period through the consumption of reserves allocated to reproduction

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Surgical site infection after gastrointestinal surgery in high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries: a prospective, international, multicentre cohort study

Background: Surgical site infection (SSI) is one of the most common infections associated with health care, but its importance as a global health priority is not fully understood. We quantified the burden of SSI after gastrointestinal surgery in countries in all parts of the world. Methods: This international, prospective, multicentre cohort study included consecutive patients undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection within 2-week time periods at any health-care facility in any country. Countries with participating centres were stratified into high-income, middle-income, and low-income groups according to the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Data variables from the GlobalSurg 1 study and other studies that have been found to affect the likelihood of SSI were entered into risk adjustment models. The primary outcome measure was the 30-day SSI incidence (defined by US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for superficial and deep incisional SSI). Relationships with explanatory variables were examined using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02662231. Findings: Between Jan 4, 2016, and July 31, 2016, 13 265 records were submitted for analysis. 12 539 patients from 343 hospitals in 66 countries were included. 7339 (58·5%) patient were from high-HDI countries (193 hospitals in 30 countries), 3918 (31·2%) patients were from middle-HDI countries (82 hospitals in 18 countries), and 1282 (10·2%) patients were from low-HDI countries (68 hospitals in 18 countries). In total, 1538 (12·3%) patients had SSI within 30 days of surgery. The incidence of SSI varied between countries with high (691 [9·4%] of 7339 patients), middle (549 [14·0%] of 3918 patients), and low (298 [23·2%] of 1282) HDI (p < 0·001). The highest SSI incidence in each HDI group was after dirty surgery (102 [17·8%] of 574 patients in high-HDI countries; 74 [31·4%] of 236 patients in middle-HDI countries; 72 [39·8%] of 181 patients in low-HDI countries). Following risk factor adjustment, patients in low-HDI countries were at greatest risk of SSI (adjusted odds ratio 1·60, 95% credible interval 1·05–2·37; p=0·030). 132 (21·6%) of 610 patients with an SSI and a microbiology culture result had an infection that was resistant to the prophylactic antibiotic used. Resistant infections were detected in 49 (16·6%) of 295 patients in high-HDI countries, in 37 (19·8%) of 187 patients in middle-HDI countries, and in 46 (35·9%) of 128 patients in low-HDI countries (p < 0·001). Interpretation: Countries with a low HDI carry a disproportionately greater burden of SSI than countries with a middle or high HDI and might have higher rates of antibiotic resistance. In view of WHO recommendations on SSI prevention that highlight the absence of high-quality interventional research, urgent, pragmatic, randomised trials based in LMICs are needed to assess measures aiming to reduce this preventable complication

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89.6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60.6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0.17, 95 per cent c.i. 0.14 to 0.21, P <0001) or low (363 of 860, 422 per cent; OR 008, 007 to 010, P <0.001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -94 (95 per cent c.i. -11.9 to -6.9) per cent; P <0001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+121 (+7.0 to +173) per cent; P <0001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0.60, 0.50 to 073; P <0.001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries.Peer reviewe

Contributions from Spatial Models to Non-Life Insurance Pricing: An Empirical Application to Water Damage Risk.

This paper explores the application of spatial models to non-life insurance data focused on the multi-risk home insurance branch. In the pricing modelling and rating process, spatial information should be considered by actuaries and insurance managers because frequencies and claim sizes may vary by region and the premium should be different considering this rating variable. In addition, it is relevant to examine the spatial dependence due to the fact that the frequency of claims in neighbouring regions is often expected to be more closely related than those in regions far from each other. In this paper, a comparison between spatial models, such as spatial autoregressive models (SAR), the spatial error model (SEM), and the spatial Durbin model (SDM), and a non-spatial model has been developed. The data used for this analysis are for a home insurance portfolio located in Spain, from which we have selected peril of water coverage.post-print904 K

Synthesis, Structures, and Solution Studies of a New Class of [Mo2O2S2 ]-Based Thiosemicarbazone Coordination Complexes

International audienc