Fatigue Crack Propagation Under Variable Amplitude Loading in Steels Used in Francis Turbine Runners

RÉSUMÉ Les turbines hydrauliques sont soumises à de très grands nombres de cycles à faible amplitude de contrainte et à haute fréquence. Ces petits cycles sont générés par des phénomènes hydrauliques et sont superposés à une contrainte statique de tension. Aussi, dépendant des conditions de fonctionnement, il est possible d’avoir superposé aux petits cycles un plus faible nombre de grands cycles à forte amplitude de contrainte et basse fréquence. On a ainsi en pratique une superposition de petits cycles, de grands cycles et d’une contrainte statique de tension durant les 70 ans de durée de vie de la turbine. Les turbines hydrauliques qui sont fabriquées à partir des aciers AISI 415, ASTM A516, et AISI 304L (notés 415, A516, et 304L pour simplification) sont soumises à de telles contraintes cycliques et statique. Ces contraintes ont pour effet de favoriser la propagation des défauts existants dans les roues des turbines et peuvent mener à leur rupture. Pour éviter la propagation des fissures, les petits cycles doivent induire un ΔK qui est en dessous du seuil de fatigue. Néanmoins, les grands cycles peuvent contribuer à propager ces fissures. Ainsi, pour prédire la vitesse de propagation des fissures dans de telles conditions de cycles superposés, on a recours à la sommation linéaire de dommage (SLD). Il a été observé que les grands cycles superposés aux petits cycles peuvent induire une diminution du seuil de fatigue des petits cycles. Différentes procédures ont été proposées dans la littérature pour mesurer les seuils associés au petits cycles seuls et avec superposition des grands cycles. Cependant, la plupart des procédures ne minimise pas la fermeture induite lors de la mesure du seuil conduisant ainsi à une surestimation de leur valeur. La présente étude propose de nouvelles procédures d’essais pour réduire la fermeture lors de la mesure du seuil de fatigue pour les aciers mentionnés précédemment. De plus, différentes études ont démontré que les fissures peuvent se propager plus rapidement sous l’effet des grands cycles que ce que prédit la SLD. Nous vérifierons ainsi la précision de la prédiction LDS par rapport aux mesures de propagation. Dans une première étude, la propagation des fissures par l’interaction de petits et de grands cycles est caractérisée dans les trois aciers. Les cycles de base sont entrecoupés par les grands cycles. Les vitesses de propagation des fissures par les cycles de base et les grands cycles de sous-charges sont additionnées dans la SLD pour évaluer la vitesse de propagation de fissure.----------ABSTRACT Hydraulic turbine runners are subjected to a very large number of cycles with small stress amplitudes at high frequencies. These cycles are generated by hydraulic phenomena and are superimposed to a tensile static stress. Depending on the operating conditions, much lower number of large cycles are generated with large stress amplitudes at low frequencies. As a summary, the whole stress spectrum consists of small cycles superimposed to a tensile static stress that is intercut with large cycles during the 70 years design life of turbine runners. Turbine runners, which are fabricated from AISI 415, ASTM A516, and AISI 304L steels (i.e. called 415, A516 and 304L for simplicity), are subjected to the aforementioned stress cycles. The imposed stress spectrum propagates the existing defects or cracks in turbine runners and may lead to their failure. In order to avoid crack propagation, the small cycles should induce a ΔK that is lower than the fatigue threshold. Nonetheless, the crack can grow due to large cycles. As a result, linear damage summation (LDS) is employed to predict the crack growth. The large cycles superimposed to small cycles can also induce a decrease in fatigue threshold of the small cycles. Different test procedures have been proposed to measure the fatigue threshold of small cycles and the ones superimposed to large cycles; however, most of them do not minimize the crack closure while reaching the fatigue threshold leading to an overestimation of fatigue thresholds. In this study new test procedures are proposed in order to minimize crack closure while reaching the fatigue thresholds in turbine runner steels. Different studies have shown that crack can grow faster than the LDS prediction due to the interaction between large cycles. Therefore, we verify the precision of LDS prediction compared to the measured crack growth rates. In this first study, crack growth due to the interaction between two large cycles is investigated in the three aforementioned turbine runner steels. Baseline cycles are periodically intercut by an underload cycle. This variable amplitude loading is hereafter called periodic underloads. Crack growth rates of baseline cycles and underload cycles are summated in LDS to predict crack growth under periodic underloads. Crack growth measured under periodic underloads is then compared to LDS prediction. A ratio between the measured and predicted crack growth, that is greater than unity, is defined as an acceleration factor

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Investigation of thickness and thermal treatments on the deep drawing process for the aluminum plate

Effective parameters on deep drawing include punch diameter, mold diameter, punch speed, power of preservative sheet, friction, traction and depth. In this work, the effect of precipitation hardening in 2618Al alloys was studied. In 2618 alloy the LDR values vary with the condition of heat treatment and the best condition at the value of 1.33 was obtained. Comparison of LDR in different conditions had shown that precipitation hardening cause decrement in limiting drawing ratio and consequently is detrimental to drawing ability. In 2618 alloy at SA and SW conditions, the LDR was decreased. In this paper, the effect of temperature on earing in 2618 Al alloy was also discussed. Results show that at the temperature at 350oC the amount of earing is least

Assessment of 3D Short Crack Closure in Ti-6Al-4V Alloy Utilizing Synchrotron X-ray Microtomography

Synchrotron X-ray microtomography was utilized to observe the complex 3D crack morphology and the closure behavior of a short crack in Ti-6Al-4V alloy. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of the crack path evolution on the 3D short crack closure behavior. In situ fatigue tests at R = 0.1 were carried out using microtomography with a spatial resolution of 1 μm. The 3D crack morphology was observed in detail consisting of non-facets (zigzag), branching, and facets with deflection angles indicating the presence of mode II and mode III displacements. The crack grows with facet-like paths mainly in α grains as compared to the non-facet paths in the α+β grains. The change in the crack path from facet-like paths to non-facet-like paths in the larger crack front induces an increase in the fractional area of closed patches

Assessment of 3D Short Crack Closure in Ti-6Al-4V Alloy Utilizing Synchrotron X-ray Microtomography

Synchrotron X-ray microtomography was utilized to observe the complex 3D crack morphology and the closure behavior of a short crack in Ti-6Al-4V alloy. The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of the crack path evolution on the 3D short crack closure behavior. In situ fatigue tests at R = 0.1 were carried out using microtomography with a spatial resolution of 1 μm. The 3D crack morphology was observed in detail consisting of non-facets (zigzag), branching, and facets with deflection angles indicating the presence of mode II and mode III displacements. The crack grows with facet-like paths mainly in α grains as compared to the non-facet paths in the α+β grains. The change in the crack path from facet-like paths to non-facet-like paths in the larger crack front induces an increase in the fractional area of closed patches