Uncovering Causality from Multivariate Hawkes Integrated Cumulants

We design a new nonparametric method that allows one to estimate the matrix of integrated kernels of a multivariate Hawkes process. This matrix not only encodes the mutual influences of each nodes of the process, but also disentangles the causality relationships between them. Our approach is the first that leads to an estimation of this matrix without any parametric modeling and estimation of the kernels themselves. A consequence is that it can give an estimation of causality relationships between nodes (or users), based on their activity timestamps (on a social network for instance), without knowing or estimating the shape of the activities lifetime. For that purpose, we introduce a moment matching method that fits the third-order integrated cumulants of the process. We show on numerical experiments that our approach is indeed very robust to the shape of the kernels, and gives appealing results on the MemeTracker database

New reactions and reactive intermediates in the pyrolysis of cyclic phosphonium ylides

The authors are grateful to EPSRC and Glaxo-Wellcome (now GSK) for their support of this work through a CASE Studentship to TM.Pyrolysis, either neat or in diphenyl ether solution, results in the conversion of both 4-triphenylphosphoranylidenetetrahydrofuran-2,3,5-trione and 4-triphenylphosphoranylidenetetrahydrothio-phene-2,3,5-trione into 3,5-bis(triphenylphosphoranylidene)cyclopentane-1,2,4-trione. These reactions involve extrusion of CO2 or COS to give 3-triphenylphosphoranylidenecyclopropane-1,2-dione which further loses CO to give triphenylphosphoranylideneketene. The precise way in which these two reactive phosphorus compounds combine to give the observed product has been examined by chemical and isotopic labelling studies. Cyclotrimerization of triphenylphosphoranylideneketene upon thermolysis in diphenyl ether has also been observed for the first time. The erroneous literature interpretation of the 13C NMR spectrum for triphenylphosphoranylideneketene is corrected.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Detection of squeezed phonons in pump-probe spectroscopy

Robust engineering of phonon squeezed states in optically excited solids has emerged as a promising tool to control and manipulate their properties. However, in contrast to quantum optical systems, detection of phonon squeezing is subtle and elusive, and an important question is what constitutes an unambiguous signature of it. The state of the art involves observing oscillations at twice the phonon frequency in time resolved measurements of the out of equilibrium phonon fluctuation. Using Keldysh formalism we show that such a signal is a necessary but not a sufficient signature of a squeezed phonon, since we identify several mechanisms that do not involve squeezing and yet which produce similar oscillations. We show that a reliable detection requires a time and frequency resolved measurement of the phonon spectral function

Transmission Intergénérationelle de l’Entrepreneuriat et Performance des Unités de Production Informelles au Cameroun

This study aims to contribute to the debate on the determinants of the informal firms’ outcomes by focusing on the potential influence that the family background can have on informal business outcomes in Cameroon. Using data from the Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector (SESI 2) in Cameroun, this study shows that children of self-employed father and/or mother have a better value added, sales in some cases, than entrepreneur that parents does not have this status. This comparative advantage is strengthened when the transmission is between a father and his son or when the child, regardless of gender, is engaged in the same branch of activity as his parent(s). This transmission consists of the dissemination of a stock of human capital in the form of specific skills. Résumé Cette étude vise à contribuer au débat sur les résultats des entreprises du secteur informel en se focalisant sur l’éventuel influence que peut avoir l’environnement familial sur la performance d’une firme. A partir, des données de l’Enquête sur l’Emploi et le Secteur Informel au Cameroun (EESI 2), l’étude montre que les individus ayant eu un père et/ou une mère entrepreneurs réalisent une valeur ajoutée et des ventes, plus importantes que les entrepreneurs descendants de parents n’ayant pas ce statut. Cet avantage comparatif se renforce lorsque la transmission s’établit entre le père et son fils ou lorsque l’enfant, indépendamment du genre, s’engage à son compte propre dans la même branche d’activité que son père et/ou sa mère. Cette transmission consiste principalement à une diffusion d’un stock de capital humain sous forme de compétences spécifiques

Which method is best for the induction of labour?: A systematic review, network meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis

Background: More than 150,000 pregnant women in England and Wales have their labour induced each year. Multiple pharmacological, mechanical and complementary methods are available to induce labour. Objective: To assess the relative effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness of labour induction methods and, data permitting, effects in different clinical subgroups. Methods: We carried out a systematic review using Cochrane methods. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group’s Trials Register was searched (March 2014). This contains over 22,000 reports of controlled trials (published from 1923 onwards) retrieved from weekly searches of OVID MEDLINE (1966 to current); Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (The Cochrane Library); EMBASE (1982 to current); Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (1984 to current); ClinicalTrials.gov; the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Portal; and hand-searching of relevant conference proceedings and journals. We included randomised controlled trials examining interventions to induce labour compared with placebo, no treatment or other interventions in women eligible for third-trimester induction. We included outcomes relating to efficacy, safety and acceptability to women. In addition, for the economic analysis we searched the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, and Economic Evaluations Databases, NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment database. We carried out a network meta-analysis (NMA) using all of the available evidence, both direct and indirect, to produce estimates of the relative effects of each treatment compared with others in a network. We developed a de novo decision tree model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various methods. The costs included were the intervention and other hospital costs incurred (price year 2012–13). We reviewed the literature to identify preference-based utilities for the health-related outcomes in the model. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, expected costs, utilities and net benefit. We represent uncertainty in the optimal intervention using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Results: We identified 1190 studies; 611 were eligible for inclusion. The interventions most likely to achieve vaginal delivery (VD) within 24 hours were intravenous oxytocin with amniotomy [posterior rank 2; 95% credible intervals (CrIs) 1 to 9] and higher-dose (≥ 50 μg) vaginal misoprostol (rank 3; 95% CrI 1 to 6). Compared with placebo, several treatments reduced the odds of caesarean section, but we observed considerable uncertainty in treatment rankings. For uterine hyperstimulation, double-balloon catheter had the highest probability of being among the best three treatments, whereas vaginal misoprostol (≥ 50 μg) was most likely to increase the odds of excessive uterine activity. For other safety outcomes there were insufficient data or there was too much uncertainty to identify which treatments performed ‘best’. Few studies collected information on women’s views. Owing to incomplete reporting of the VD within 24 hours outcome, the cost-effectiveness analysis could compare only 20 interventions. The analysis suggested that most interventions have similar utility and differ mainly in cost. With a caveat of considerable uncertainty, titrated (low-dose) misoprostol solution and buccal/sublingual misoprostol had the highest likelihood of being cost-effective. Limitations: There was considerable uncertainty in findings and there were insufficient data for some planned subgroup analyses. Conclusions: Overall, misoprostol and oxytocin with amniotomy (for women with favourable cervix) is more successful than other agents in achieving VD within 24 hours. The ranking according to safety of different methods was less clear. The cost-effectiveness analysis suggested that titrated (low-dose) oral misoprostol solution resulted in the highest utility, whereas buccal/sublingual misoprostol had the lowest cost. There was a high degree of uncertainty as to the most cost-effective intervention

Étude expérimentale des effets de l'alcool et de l'excitation sexuelle en matière de coercition sexuelle

The overall objective of this dissertation was to experimentally study the effects of acute alcohol intoxication and sexual arousal on the perception of consent and on behavioral intentions to use coercive strategies to have sex. More precisely, a between-subjects design was used to study the effects of acute alcohol intoxication in men on their perception of a woman’s behavioral intents. The 150 participants, recruited from the general population, were thus randomized either in a condition With alcohol or in a condition Without alcohol. The targeted blood alcohol content was 0,08 %. Then, participants were once again randomized in one of the two levels of “Sexual arousal” factor: a condition With sexual arousal anda condition Without sexual arousal. A 2x2 between-subjects factorial design was thereby used to study the effects of acute alcohol intoxication and sexual arousal on the latency to indicate that a woman is no longer interested in having sex as well as on the behavioral intentions to use non-violent coercive strategies and to commit rape.While our results pave the way for new research in order to better understand the processes and mechanisms by which acute alcohol intoxication may help to explain sexual coercion in some individuals, practical implications must also be considered. While results related to the perception of consent support the relevance of primary and situational prevention, results related to behavioral intentions to use coercive strategies to have sex highlight the need for secondary prevention in order to develop an effective policy for sexual coercion prevention.L'objectif général de cette thèse était d'étudier expérimentalement les effets de l'alcool et de l'excitation sexuelle sur la perception du consentement et les intentions comportementales d'utiliser des stratégies coercitives pour avoir une relation sexuelle. Plus exactement, et afin d’étudier les effets de l’alcool sur la perception des intentions comportementales exprimées par une femme, un plan expérimental inter-participants a permis de répartir aléatoirement 150 participants, issus de la population générale, dans une condition Avec ou Sans alcool. Par la suite, les participants étaient à nouveau répartis aléatoirement dans l'une des deux modalités du facteur Excitation sexuelle, soit Avec ou Sans excitation sexuelle. Un plan factoriel inter-participants 2x2 a alors permis d'étudier les effets de l'alcool et de l'excitation sexuelle sur le temps de latence pour indiquer qu'une femme n'est plus intéressée par avoir une relation sexuelle, ainsi que sur les intentions comportementales d’utiliser des stratégies coercitives nonviolentes et de commettre un viol.Alors que les résultats ouvrent la voie à de nouvelles recherches afin de mieux comprendre les mécanismes par lesquels l’alcool peut, chez certains individus, contribuer à expliquer la coercition sexuelle, des implications pratiques peuvent également être proposées. Ainsi, si les résultats soutiennent l’importance de programmes de prévention primaire, voire situationnelle, ils soulignent que des programmes de prévention secondaire apparaissent également comme un élément indispensable d’une politique efficace de prévention de la coercition sexuelle

Dynamique hors équilibre du réseaux dans les expériences pompe-sonde

The study of the out of equilibrium dynamics of strongly correlated systems, using ultrafast pulses, uncovered a plethora of phenomena with no analog in equilibrium physics. In this thesis, we theoretically investigate the out of equilibrium dynamics of the lattice degrees of freedom and their signature in pump-probe spectroscopy. We develop a Hamiltonian-based microscopic description of laser pump induced displacive coherent phonons. The theory captures the feedback of the phonon excitation upon the electronic fluid, which is missing in the state-of-the-art phenomenological formulation. We show that this feedback leads to chirping at short timescales, even if the phonon motion is harmonic. At long times, this feedback appears as a finite phase in the oscillatory signal. We apply the theory to BaFe2As2, explain the origin of the phase in the oscillatory signal reported in recent experiments, and we predict that the system will exhibit redshifted chirping at larger fluence. Our theory also opens the possibility to extract equilibrium information from coherent phonon dynamics. Another interesting phenomenon that have been reported in pump-probe spectroscopy is the oscillation of the lattice fluctuations at double phonon frequency. These oscillations are invariably interpreted as a signature of macroscopic squeezed phonon states. In this work, we identify other mechanisms of double phonon frequency oscillations that do not involve squeezing. We show that a pump induced temperature quench of the bath, to which the phonon is coupled to, or exciting a coherent phonon for which cubic anharmonicity is allowed by symmetry can also produce such oscillations in noise spectroscopy without squeezing the phonon state. We conclude that, in contrast with what is commonly believed, double phonon frequency oscillations in noise spectroscopy are not necessarily a signature of macroscopic phonon squeezing. We point out what can be a reliable criterion to identify a squeezed phonon using pump-probe spectroscopy.L'étude de la dynamique hors équilibre des systèmes fortement corrélés, à l'aide de laser femtoseconde, a révélé une variété de phénomènes sans analogue en physique d'équilibre. Dans cette thèse, nous étudions théoriquement la dynamique hors équilibre des degrés de liberté du réseau et leur signature en spectroscopie pompe-sonde. Nous développons une description microscopique des phonons cohérents displacive excité par le laser. La théorie capture la rétroaction de l'excitation des phonons sur le fluide électronique, qui manque dans la formulation phénoménologique actuelle. Nous montrons que cette rétroaction conduit à une oscillation avec une fréquence qui dépend du temps aux temps courts, même si le mouvement des phonons est harmonique. Pour les temps longs, cette rétroaction apparaît comme une phase résiduelle dans le signal oscillatoire. Nous appliquons la théorie au BaFe2As2, nous expliquons l'origine de la phase du signal oscillatoire rapporté dans des expériences récentes, et nous prédisons que le système oscille avec une fréquence décalé vers le rouge pour les grandes fluences. Notre théorie ouvre également la possibilité d'extraire des informations d'équilibre à partir la dynamique des phonons cohérents. Un autre phénomène intéressant qui a été observé en spectroscopie pompe-sonde est l'oscillation des fluctuations du réseau au double de la fréquence d’un phonon du système étudié. Ces oscillations sont interprétées comme une signature d'états de phonons squeezé macroscopique. Dans ce travail, nous identifions d'autres mécanismes d'oscillations à une fréquence double autre que le squeezing. Nous montrons qu'un quench de la température du bain thermique induite par la pompe, à laquelle le phonon est couplé, ou l'excitation d'un phonon cohérent pour lequel l'anharmonicité cubique est permise par symétrie peut également produire de telles oscillations en spectroscopie sans que le phonon soit dans un état squeezé. Nous concluons que, contrairement à ce qui est communément admis, les oscillations à double fréquence phononique en spectroscopie de bruit ne sont pas nécessairement une signature des phonons squeezés. Nous soulignons ce qui peut être un critère fiable pour identifier un phonon squeezé en utilisant la spectroscopie pompe-sonde

Cognition and social information processing in violent and sexual offending. European Review of Applied Psychology

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