Selecting likely causal risk factors from high-throughput experiments using multivariable Mendelian randomization

Funder: UK Medical Research Council (MC UU 00002/7) and Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (Grant Number 204623/Z/16/Z)Abstract: Modern high-throughput experiments provide a rich resource to investigate causal determinants of disease risk. Mendelian randomization (MR) is the use of genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the causal effect of a specific risk factor on an outcome. Multivariable MR is an extension of the standard MR framework to consider multiple potential risk factors in a single model. However, current implementations of multivariable MR use standard linear regression and hence perform poorly with many risk factors. Here, we propose a two-sample multivariable MR approach based on Bayesian model averaging (MR-BMA) that scales to high-throughput experiments. In a realistic simulation study, we show that MR-BMA can detect true causal risk factors even when the candidate risk factors are highly correlated. We illustrate MR-BMA by analysing publicly-available summarized data on metabolites to prioritise likely causal biomarkers for age-related macular degeneration

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Europe: The Past and the Future.

PURPOSE: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a frequent, complex disorder in elderly of European ancestry. Risk profiles and treatment options have changed considerably over the years, which may have affected disease prevalence and outcome. We determined the prevalence of early and late AMD in Europe from 1990 to 2013 using the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium, and made projections for the future. DESIGN: Meta-analysis of prevalence data. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 42 080 individuals 40 years of age and older participating in 14 population-based cohorts from 10 countries in Europe. METHODS: AMD was diagnosed based on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam Classification. Prevalence of early and late AMD was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis stratified for age, birth cohort, gender, geographic region, and time period of the study. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was compared between late AMD subtypes; geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of early and late AMD, BCVA, and number of AMD cases. RESULTS: Prevalence of early AMD increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%-5.0%) in those aged 55-59 years to 17.6% (95% CI 13.6%-21.5%) in those aged ≥85 years; for late AMD these figures were 0.1% (95% CI 0.04%-0.3%) and 9.8% (95% CI 6.3%-13.3%), respectively. We observed a decreasing prevalence of late AMD after 2006, which became most prominent after age 70. Prevalences were similar for gender across all age groups except for late AMD in the oldest age category, and a trend was found showing a higher prevalence of CNV in Northern Europe. After 2006, fewer eyes and fewer ≥80-year-old subjects with CNV were visually impaired (P = 0.016). Projections of AMD showed an almost doubling of affected persons despite a decreasing prevalence. By 2040, the number of individuals in Europe with early AMD will range between 14.9 and 21.5 million, and for late AMD between 3.9 and 4.8 million. CONCLUSION: We observed a decreasing prevalence of AMD and an improvement in visual acuity in CNV occuring over the past 2 decades in Europe. Healthier lifestyles and implementation of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment are the most likely explanations. Nevertheless, the numbers of affected subjects will increase considerably in the next 2 decades. AMD continues to remain a significant public health problem among Europeans

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Ophthalmology

PURPOSE: To investigate systemic and ocular determinants of peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (pRNFLT) in the European population. DESIGN: Cross-sectional meta-analysis. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 16 084 European adults from 8 cohort studies (mean age range, 56.9+/-12.3-82.1+/-4.2 years) of the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium. METHODS: We examined associations with pRNFLT measured by spectral-domain OCT in each study using multivariable linear regression and pooled results using random effects meta-analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Determinants of pRNFLT. RESULTS: Mean pRNFLT ranged from 86.8+/-21.4 mum in the Rotterdam Study I to 104.7+/-12.5 mum in the Rotterdam Study III. We found the following factors to be associated with reduced pRNFLT: Older age (beta = -0.38 mum/year; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.57 to -0.18), higher intraocular pressure (IOP) (beta = -0.36 mum/mmHg; 95% CI, -0.56 to -0.15), visual impairment (beta = -5.50 mum; 95% CI, -9.37 to -1.64), and history of systemic hypertension (beta = -0.54 mum; 95% CI, -1.01 to -0.07) and stroke (beta = -1.94 mum; 95% CI, -3.17 to -0.72). A suggestive, albeit nonsignificant, association was observed for dementia (beta = -3.11 mum; 95% CI, -6.22 to 0.01). Higher pRNFLT was associated with more hyperopic spherical equivalent (beta = 1.39 mum/diopter; 95% CI, 1.19-1.59) and smoking (beta = 1.53 mum; 95% CI, 1.00-2.06 for current smokers compared with never-smokers). CONCLUSIONS: In addition to previously described determinants such as age and refraction, we found that systemic vascular and neurovascular diseases were associated with reduced pRNFLT. These may be of clinical relevance, especially in glaucoma monitoring of patients with newly occurring vascular comorbidities

Common variants in SOX-2 and congenital cataract genes contribute to age-related nuclear cataract

Nuclear cataract is the most common type of age-related cataract and a leading cause of blindness worldwide. Age-related nuclear cataract is heritable (h2 = 0.48), but little is known about specific genetic factors underlying this condition. Here we report findings from the largest to date multi-ethnic meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (discovery cohort N = 14,151 and replication N = 5299) of the International Cataract Genetics Consortium. We confirmed the known genetic association of CRYAA (rs7278468, P = 2.8 × 10−16) with nuclear cataract and identified five new loci associated with this disease: SOX2-OT (rs9842371, P = 1.7 × 1

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in Europe: The Past and the Future

Purpose Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a frequent, complex disorder in elderly of European ancestry. Risk profiles and treatment options have changed considerably over the years, which may have affected disease prevalence and outcome. We determined the prevalence of early and late AMD in Europe from 1990 to 2013 using the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) consortium, and made projections for the future. Design Meta-analysis of prevalence data. Participants A total of 42 080 individuals 40 years of age and older participating in 14 population-based cohorts from 10 countries in Europe. Methods AMD was diagnosed based on fundus photographs using the Rotterdam Classification. Prevalence of early and late AMD was calculated using random-effects meta-analysis stratified for age, birth cohort, gender, geographic region, and time period of the study. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was compared between late AMD subtypes; geographic atrophy (GA) and choroidal neovascularization (CNV). Main Outcome Measures Prevalence of early and late AMD, BCVA, and number of AMD cases. Results Prevalence of early AMD increased from 3.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.1%–5.0%) in those aged 55–59 years to 17.6% (95%