Intermediate Tail Dependence: A Review and Some New Results

The concept of intermediate tail dependence is useful if one wants to quantify the degree of positive dependence in the tails when there is no strong evidence of presence of the usual tail dependence. We first review existing studies on intermediate tail dependence, and then we report new results to supplement the review. Intermediate tail dependence for elliptical, extreme value and Archimedean copulas are reviewed and further studied, respectively. For Archimedean copulas, we not only consider the frailty model but also the recently studied scale mixture model; for the latter, conditions leading to upper intermediate tail dependence are presented, and it provides a useful way to simulate copulas with desirable intermediate tail dependence structures.Comment: 25 pages, 1 figur

The Doppler Wind Temperature Sensor (DWTS) Flight Evaluation and Experiments (TES-16,17)

The Doppler Wind and Temperature Sounder instrument (DWTS) developed by Global Atmospheric Technologies and Sciences (GATS) is a simple yet powerful tool with the potential to become a new window through which the study of upper atmosphere dynamics can occur. Based around a defense-grade infrared camera peering through a static gas cell used as a scanning spectral filter, a DWTS instrument can infer wind velocities and kinetic temperatures throughout the stratosphere and lower thermosphere. The DWTS achieves this scanning by measuring the induced Doppler shift and Doppler broadening of emissions as they pass through the DWTS field of view (Gordley, Marshall, 2011). The DWTS holds promise in improving accuracy in weather determination among other terrestrial benefits, and the core technology can be easily adapted to study the dynamics of other planetary atmospheres. In partnership with GATS, NOAA, and other collaborators, NASA Ames and the Nano-Orbital Workshop (NOW) group have been working to evaluate the DWTS instrument on orbit and optimize it as a flexible payload for nanosatellites. The first mission selected for DWTS technical evaluation is preparing for flight in early 2024, which will be followed by a more capable science mission in 2025, with both missions being part of the TES-n/NOW heritage flight series. The first rapid technology demonstration flight, TES-16/DWTS-A, will demonstrate a single DWTS instrument in an approximately 2U payload volume. With an estimated power consumption of 50 watts, the instrument will maintain the imaging sensor plane at 80K during instrument performance evaluation periods using an integrated Stirling cryocooler. Data from DWTS will be captured and processed via a NOW-designed custom data interface unit before being transmitted via S-band radio back to select ground stations, with instrument command and control maintained via L-band global-coverage radio. The subsequent TES-17/DWTS-B mission will be a dedicated science mission tasked with validating the instrument’s full altitude coverage capabilities, currently estimated from 20 to 200 km during both day and night. This new atmospheric observational capability will come from a single small satellite equipped with three DWTS imagers, each hosting a different gas cell chemistry, to form a complete instrument. The intention of this flight series, and one of NASA’s interests in this instrument, is not only to advance Earth atmospheric dynamics, but to advance a Martian atmospheric study instrument as well (Colaprete, Gordley, et al) which, if successful, would greatly further understanding of Martian atmospheric dynamics. This document describes the flight series in detail, including challenges facing the TES-16 flight tests and the projected challenges and application of Mars study. Additional detail regarding the possible applications of a Cognitive Communication technique in current flight development by NOW collaborators at the NASA Glenn Research Center is also discussed, including the implications of using an automated User Initiated Service (UIS) protocol to maximize the data collected per orbit

Primary medical care in Irish prisons

BACKGROUND: An industrial dispute between prison doctors and the Irish Prison Service (IPS) took place in 2004. Part of the resolution of that dispute was that an independent review of prison medical and support services be carried out by a University Department of Primary Care. The review took place in 2008 and we report here on the principal findings of that review. METHODS: This study utilised a mixed methods approach. An independent expert medical evaluator (one of the authors, DT) inspected the medical facilities, equipment and relevant custodial areas in eleven of the fourteen prisons within the IPS. Semistructured interviews took place with personnel who had operational responsibility for delivery of prison medical care. Prison doctors completed a questionnaire to elicit issues such as allocation of clinician's time, nurse and administrative support and resources available. RESULTS: There was wide variation in the standard of medical facilities and infrastructure provided across the IPS. The range of medical equipment available was generally below that of the equivalent general practice scheme in the community. There is inequality within the system with regard to the ratio of doctor-contracted time relative to the size of the prison population. There is limited administrative support, with the majority of prisons not having a medical secretary. There are few psychiatric or counselling sessions available. CONCLUSIONS: People in prison have a wide range of medical care needs and there is evidence to suggest that these needs are being met inconsistently in Irish prisons

Towards Machine Wald

The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed \emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways: (1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite. With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment: Exploring Fundamental Symmetries of the Universe

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early Universe, the dynamics of the supernova bursts that produced the heavy elements necessary for life and whether protons eventually decay --- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our Universe, its current state and its eventual fate. The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment (LBNE) represents an extensively developed plan for a world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions. LBNE is conceived around three central components: (1) a new, high-intensity neutrino source generated from a megawatt-class proton accelerator at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, (2) a near neutrino detector just downstream of the source, and (3) a massive liquid argon time-projection chamber deployed as a far detector deep underground at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. This facility, located at the site of the former Homestake Mine in Lead, South Dakota, is approximately 1,300 km from the neutrino source at Fermilab -- a distance (baseline) that delivers optimal sensitivity to neutrino charge-parity symmetry violation and mass ordering effects. This ambitious yet cost-effective design incorporates scalability and flexibility and can accommodate a variety of upgrades and contributions. With its exceptional combination of experimental configuration, technical capabilities, and potential for transformative discoveries, LBNE promises to be a vital facility for the field of particle physics worldwide, providing physicists from around the globe with opportunities to collaborate in a twenty to thirty year program of exciting science. In this document we provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess.Comment: Major update of previous version. This is the reference document for LBNE science program and current status. Chapters 1, 3, and 9 provide a comprehensive overview of LBNE's scientific objectives, its place in the landscape of neutrino physics worldwide, the technologies it will incorporate and the capabilities it will possess. 288 pages, 116 figure

Efficacious Intermittent Dosing of a Novel JAK2 Inhibitor in Mouse Models of Polycythemia Vera

A high percentage of patients with the myeloproliferative disorder polycythemia vera (PV) harbor a Val617→Phe activating mutation in the Janus kinase 2 (JAK2) gene, and both cell culture and mouse models have established a functional role for this mutation in the development of this disease. We describe the properties of MRLB-11055, a highly potent inhibitor of both the WT and V617F forms of JAK2, that has therapeutic efficacy in erythropoietin (EPO)-driven and JAK2V617F-driven mouse models of PV. In cultured cells, MRLB-11055 blocked proliferation and induced apoptosis in a manner consistent with JAK2 pathway inhibition. MRLB-11055 effectively prevented EPO-induced STAT5 activation in the peripheral blood of acutely dosed mice, and could prevent EPO-induced splenomegaly and erythrocytosis in chronically dosed mice. In a bone marrow reconstituted JAK2V617F-luciferase murine PV model, MRLB-11055 rapidly reduced the burden of JAK2V617F-expressing cells from both the spleen and the bone marrow. Using real-time in vivo imaging, we examined the kinetics of disease regression and resurgence, enabling the development of an intermittent dosing schedule that achieved significant reductions in both erythroid and myeloid populations with minimal impact on lymphoid cells. Our studies provide a rationale for the use of non-continuous treatment to provide optimal therapy for PV patients

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Evidence-based Kernels: Fundamental Units of Behavioral Influence

This paper describes evidence-based kernels, fundamental units of behavioral influence that appear to underlie effective prevention and treatment for children, adults, and families. A kernel is a behavior–influence procedure shown through experimental analysis to affect a specific behavior and that is indivisible in the sense that removing any of its components would render it inert. Existing evidence shows that a variety of kernels can influence behavior in context, and some evidence suggests that frequent use or sufficient use of some kernels may produce longer lasting behavioral shifts. The analysis of kernels could contribute to an empirically based theory of behavioral influence, augment existing prevention or treatment efforts, facilitate the dissemination of effective prevention and treatment practices, clarify the active ingredients in existing interventions, and contribute to efficiently developing interventions that are more effective. Kernels involve one or more of the following mechanisms of behavior influence: reinforcement, altering antecedents, changing verbal relational responding, or changing physiological states directly. The paper describes 52 of these kernels, and details practical, theoretical, and research implications, including calling for a national database of kernels that influence human behavior

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2–4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease