Case Study of Multiyear Precipitation Variations and the Hydrology of Fort Cobb Reservoir

Impacts of decadal precipitation variations on reservoir inflow, flood releases, and pool elevation were investigated for the Fort Cobb Reservoir, which controls runoff from a 787 km2 agricultural watershed in central Oklahoma. The difference in mean annual precipitation between multiyear dry and wet periods was 33% of the long-term mean and led to a corresponding 100% change in mean reservoir inflow, 170% change in mean annual flood releases from the reservoir, and a maximum drop in conservation pool elevation of 2 m. From a reservoir operations perspective, only the frequency of controlled flood releases was impacted by decadal precipitation variations. These flood releases were sporadic in nature, and the more frequent releases during wet periods were not believed to appreciably enhance stream habitat and riparian vegetation downstream of the reservoir. It was further reasoned that large differences in annual reservoir inflow due to decadal precipitation variations would likely be accompanied by related changes in upstream soil erosion and reservoir sediment loading. With regard to hydrologic and environmental modeling, it was argued that decadal precipitation variations had important implications for model calibration, verification, and subsequent application. Overall, this case study demonstrated watershed and reservoir hydrology were sensitive to decadal precipitation variations and suggested that decadal precipitation variations deserved careful consideration in hydrologic and water quality investigations in central Oklahoma

Evaluating PRISM Precipitation Grid Data As Possible Surrogates For Station Data At Four Sites In Oklahoma

The development of climate-sensitive decision support for agriculture or water resource management requires long time series of monthly precipitation for specific locations. Archived station data for many locations is available, but time continuity, quality, and spatial coverage of station data remain significant issues. One possible alternative for station data are continuous, gridded monthly data produced by the PRISM Climate Group, with each grid cell roughly 4 km per side. The PRISM monthly precipitation data is evaluated against station data for four sites in Oklahoma, for possible use whenever station data is unavailable or insufficient. The station and PRISM data are found to be very similar in two key respects (specifically 30-year monthly means and certain characteristics of probability density functions), but significantly different in variance. The difference in variance is attributed to situations where precipitation varied by significant amounts over short distances, with the gridded PRISM data "smearing" the heavy rainfall over locations that received lower amounts. As a result, PRISM precipitation data would be suitable for downscaling seasonal climate forecasts or other analyses that require knowledge of the mean and central shape of the local probability density function, but not for specifying variance as input for weather generators

Honey bee foraging distance depends on month and forage type

To investigate the distances at which honey bee foragers collect nectar and pollen, we analysed 5,484 decoded waggle dances made to natural forage sites to determine monthly foraging distance for each forage type. Firstly, we found significantly fewer overall dances made for pollen (16.8 %) than for non-pollen, presumably nectar (83.2 %; P < 2.2 × 10−23). When we analysed distance against month and forage type, there was a significant interaction between the two factors, which demonstrates that in some months, one forage type is collected at farther distances, but this would reverse in other months. Overall, these data suggest that distance, as a proxy for forage availability, is not significantly and consistently driven by need for one type of forage over the other

A 14-year longitudinal study of the impact of clean indoor air legislation on state smoking prevalence, USA, 1997-2010

While clean indoor air legislation at the state level is an evidence-based recommendation, only limited evidence exists regarding the impact of clean indoor air policies on state smoking prevalence. Using state smoking prevalence data from 1997 to 2010, a repeated measures observational analysis assessed the association between clean indoor air policies (i.e., workplace, restaurant, and bar) and state smoking prevalence while controlling for state cigarette taxes and year. The impacts from the number of previous years with any clean indoor air policy, the number of policies newly in effect during the current year, and the number of policies in effect the previous year were analyzed. Findings indicate a smoking prevalence predicted decrease of 0.13 percentage points (p = 0.03) for each additional year one or more clean indoor air policies were in effect, a predicted decrease of 0.12 percentage points (p = 0.09) for each policy newly in effect in the current year, and a predicted decrease of 0.22 percentage points (p = 0.01) for each policy in effect in the previous year on the subsequent year. Clean indoor air policies show measurable associations with reductions in smoking prevalence within a year of implementation above and beyond taxes and time trends. Further efforts are needed to diffuse clean indoor air policies across states and provinces that have not yet adopted such policies.ECU Open Access Fun

Humanistic psychotherapy research 1990-2015 : from methodological innovation to evidence-supported treatment outcomes and beyond

Over the past twenty five years, humanistic psychotherapy (HP) researchers have actively contributed to the development and implementation of innovative practice-informed research measures and coding systems. Qualitative and quantitative research findings, including meta-analyses, support the identification of HP approaches as evidence-based treatments for a variety of psychological conditions. Implications for future psychotherapy research, training and practice are discussed in terms of addressing the persistent disjunction between significant HP research productivity and relatively low support for HP approaches in university-based clinical training programs, funding agencies and government-supported clinical guidelines. Finally, specific recommendations are provided to further enhance and expand the impact of humanistic psychotherapy research for clinical training programs and the development of treatment guidelines

Geospatial Resolution of Human and Bacterial Diversity with City-Scale Metagenomics

The panoply of microorganisms and other species present in our environment influence human health and disease, especially in cities, but have not been profiled with metagenomics at a city-wide scale. We sequenced DNA from surfaces across the entire New York City (NYC) subway system, the Gowanus Canal, and public parks. Nearly half of the DNA (48%) does not match any known organism; identified organisms spanned 1,688 bacterial, viral, archaeal, and eukaryotic taxa, which were enriched for harmless genera associated with skin (e.g., Acinetobacter). Predicted ancestry of human DNA left on subway surfaces can recapitulate U.S. Census demographic data, and bacterial signatures can reveal a station’s history, such as marine-associated bacteria in a hurricane-flooded station. Some evidence of pathogens was found (Bacillus anthracis), but a lack of reported cases in NYC suggests that the pathogens represent a normal, urban microbiome. This baseline metagenomic map of NYC could help long-term disease surveillance, bioterrorism threat mitigation, and health management in the built environment of citie

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe