Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Coffee, Alcohol, Smoking, Physical Activity and QT Interval Duration: Results from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Abnormalities in the electrocardiographic QT interval duration have been associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. However, there is substantial uncertainty about the effect of modifiable factors such as coffee intake, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity on QT interval duration.We studied 7795 men and women from the Third National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES III, 1988-1994). Baseline QT interval was measured from the standard 12-lead electrocardiogram. Coffee and tea intake, alcohol consumption, leisure-time physical activities over the past month, and lifetime smoking habits were determined using validated questionnaires during the home interview.In the fully adjusted model, the average differences in QT interval comparing participants drinking ≥6 cups/day to those who did not drink any were -1.2 ms (95% CI -4.4 to 2.0) for coffee, and -2.0 ms (-11.2 to 7.3) for tea, respectively. The average differences in QT interval duration comparing current to never smokers was 1.2 ms (-0.6 to 2.9) while the average difference in QT interval duration comparing participants drinking ≥7 drinks/week to non-drinkers was 1.8 ms (-0.5 to 4.0). The age, race/ethnicity, and RR-interval adjusted differences in average QT interval duration comparing men with binge drinking episodes to non-drinkers or drinkers without binge drinking were 2.8 ms (0.4 to 5.3) and 4.0 ms (1.6 to 6.4), respectively. The corresponding differences in women were 1.1 (-2.9 to 5.2) and 1.7 ms (-2.3 to 5.7). Finally, the average differences in QT interval comparing the highest vs. the lowest categories of total physical activity was -0.8 ms (-3.0 to 1.4).Binge drinking was associated with longer QT interval in men but not in women. QT interval duration was not associated with other modifiable factors including coffee and tea intake, smoking, and physical activity

Fermitins, the orthologs of mammalian Kindlins, regulate the development of a functional cardiac syncytium in Drosophila melanogaster.

The vertebrate Kindlins are an evolutionarily conserved family of proteins critical for integrin signalling and cell adhesion. Kindlin-2 (KIND2) is associated with intercalated discs in mice, suggesting a role in cardiac syncytium development; however, deficiency of Kind2 leads to embryonic lethality. Morpholino knock-down of Kind2 in zebrafish has a pleiotropic effect on development that includes the heart. It therefore remains unclear whether cardiomyocyte Kind2 expression is required for cardiomyocyte junction formation and the development of normal cardiac function. To address this question, the expression of Fermitin 1 and Fermitin 2 (Fit1, Fit2), the two Drosophila orthologs of Kind2, was silenced in Drosophila cardiomyocytes. Heart development was assessed in adult flies by immunological methods and videomicroscopy. Silencing both Fit1 and Fit2 led to a severe cardiomyopathy characterised by the failure of cardiomyocytes to develop as a functional syncytium and loss of synchrony between cardiomyocytes. A null allele of Fit1 was generated but this had no impact on the heart. Similarly, the silencing of Fit2 failed to affect heart function. In contrast, the silencing of Fit2 in the cardiomyocytes of Fit1 null flies disrupted syncytium development, leading to severe cardiomyopathy. The data definitively demonstrate a role for Fermitins in the development of a functional cardiac syncytium in Drosophila. The findings also show that the Fermitins can functionally compensate for each other in order to control syncytium development. These findings support the concept that abnormalities in cardiomyocyte KIND2 expression or function may contribute to cardiomyopathies in humans

Measuring the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries : a baseline analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). Methods We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI, a summary measure based on average income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate) and each of the health-related SDG indicators and indices. Findings In 2015, the median health-related SDG index was 59.3 (95% uncertainty interval 56.8-61.8) and varied widely by country, ranging from 85.5 (84.2-86.5) in Iceland to 20.4 (15.4-24.9) in Central African Republic. SDI was a good predictor of the health-related SDG index (r(2) = 0.88) and the MDG index (r(2) = 0.2), whereas the non-MDG index had a weaker relation with SDI (r(2) = 0.79). Between 2000 and 2015, the health-related SDG index improved by a median of 7.9 (IQR 5.0-10.4), and gains on the MDG index (a median change of 10.0 [6.7-13.1]) exceeded that of the non-MDG index (a median change of 5.5 [2.1-8.9]). Since 2000, pronounced progress occurred for indicators such as met need with modern contraception, under-5 mortality, and neonatal mortality, as well as the indicator for universal health coverage tracer interventions. Moderate improvements were found for indicators such as HIV and tuberculosis incidence, minimal changes for hepatitis B incidence took place, and childhood overweight considerably worsened. Interpretation GBD provides an independent, comparable avenue for monitoring progress towards the health-related SDGs. Our analysis not only highlights the importance of income, education, and fertility as drivers of health improvement but also emphasises that investments in these areas alone will not be sufficient. Although considerable progress on the health-related MDG indicators has been made, these gains will need to be sustained and, in many cases, accelerated to achieve the ambitious SDG targets. The minimal improvement in or worsening of health-related indicators beyond the MDGs highlight the need for additional resources to effectively address the expanded scope of the health-related SDGs.Peer reviewe

Autoimmune diseases in centrally reviewed thymic epithelial tumours (TET)

BackgroundThere have been wide variations in the reported prevalence (up to 30%) of autoimmune disorders (AID) in TET patients (pts) in small single-center series. RYTHMIC (Réseau tumeurs THYMiques et Cancer) is a French network mandated to systematically discuss every case of TET. A histopathology central review of the samples is performed within a National Histopathological Tumor Board (NHTB). We aimed to assess the prevalence of AID in a large cohort after pathological central review.MethodsRYTHMIC database, hosted by IFCT (French Intergroup of Thoracic Cancerology), prospectively includes all consecutive pts with a diagnosis of TET discussed in French national or regional tumor boards. A expert pathological panel reviews all cases discussed during NHTBs. We analyzed epidemiological, clinical and pathological characteristics of pts.ResultsFrom January 2012 to December 2019, 2909 pts were included in the database. The median age at diagnosis of TET was 60 (range of 14-87), 53.6% were male. About 24% of the pts tumor samples (n=701) were centrally reviewed. In this subgroup of patients, the % of AID was overall similar to the whole cohort, 139/701 (19.8%). Three pts (2%) had more than 1 AID. Among the events, 96 were myasthenia gravis (MG) (69%), 9 Good’s syndrome (6.7%), 5 pure red cell aplasia (3.5%), 7 thyroiditis (5%) and 8 lupus (5.7%). Among pts presenting AID in the cohort (n=701), B2 was the most common subtype before and AB after central review, respectively. Before and after central review, the prevalence of different subtypes is shown in the table.ConclusionsAround 1 out of 5 TET patients present an AID. The highest prevalence of AID after pathological central review was in B3 then B2 and B1 subtypes. Immunotherapy should be restricted to thymic carcinoma where the rate of AID is the lowest (3.3%)