Mixed Hodge polynomials of character varieties

We calculate the E-polynomials of certain twisted GL(n,C)-character varieties M_n of Riemann surfaces by counting points over finite fields using the character table of the finite group of Lie-type GL(n,F_q) and a theorem proved in the appendix by N. Katz. We deduce from this calculation several geometric results, for example, the value of the topological Euler characteristic of the associated PGL(n,C)-character variety. The calculation also leads to several conjectures about the cohomology of M_n: an explicit conjecture for its mixed Hodge polynomial; a conjectured curious Hard Lefschetz theorem and a conjecture relating the pure part to absolutely indecomposable representations of a certain quiver. We prove these conjectures for n = 2.Comment: with an appendix by Nicholas M. Katz; 57 pages. revised version: New definition for homogeneous weight in Definition 4.1.6, subsequent arguments modified. Some other minor changes. To appear in Invent. Mat

Calibration of Super-Kamiokande Using an Electron Linac

In order to calibrate the Super-Kamiokande experiment for solar neutrino measurements, a linear accelerator (LINAC) for electrons was installed at the detector. LINAC data were taken at various positions in the detector volume, tracking the detector response in the variables relevant to solar neutrino analysis. In particular, the absolute energy scale is now known with less than 1 percent uncertainty.Comment: 24 pages, 16 figures, Submitted to NIM

Measurement of a small atmospheric νμ/νe\nu_\mu/\nu_e ratio

From an exposure of 25.5~kiloton-years of the Super-Kamiokande detector, 900 muon-like and 983 electron-like single-ring atmospheric neutrino interactions were detected with momentum $p_e > 100$ MeV/$c$, $p_\mu > 200$ MeV/$c$, and with visible energy less than 1.33 GeV. Using a detailed Monte Carlo simulation, the ratio $(\mu/e)_{DATA}/(\mu/e)_{MC}$ was measured to be $0.61 \pm 0.03(stat.) \pm 0.05(sys.)$, consistent with previous results from the Kamiokande, IMB and Soudan-2 experiments, and smaller than expected from theoretical models of atmospheric neutrino production.Comment: 14 pages with 5 figure

Measurement of radon concentrations at Super-Kamiokande

Radioactivity from radon is a major background for observing solar neutrinos at Super-Kamiokande. In this paper, we describe the measurement of radon concentrations at Super-Kamiokande, the method of radon reduction, and the radon monitoring system. The measurement shows that the current low-energy event rate between 5.0 MeV and 6.5 MeV implies a radon concentration in the Super-Kamiokande water of less than 1.4 mBq/m$^3$.Comment: 11 pages, 4 figure

Strong-disorder paramagnetic-ferromagnetic fixed point in the square-lattice +- J Ising model

We consider the random-bond +- J Ising model on a square lattice as a function of the temperature T and of the disorder parameter p (p=1 corresponds to the pure Ising model). We investigate the critical behavior along the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic transition line at low temperatures, below the temperature of the multicritical Nishimori point at T*= 0.9527(1), p*=0.89083(3). We present finite-size scaling analyses of Monte Carlo results at two temperature values, T=0.645 and T=0.5. The results show that the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic transition line is reentrant for T<T*, that the transitions are continuous and controlled by a strong-disorder fixed point with critical exponents nu=1.50(4) and eta=0.128(8), and beta = 0.095(5). This fixed point is definitely different from the Ising fixed point controlling the paramagnetic-ferromagnetic transitions for T>T*. Our results for the critical exponents are consistent with the hyperscaling relation 2 beta/nu - eta = d - 2 = 0.Comment: 32 pages, added refs and a discussion on hyperscalin

Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries

Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0�59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3�5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization�s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99 of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40 and wasting to less than 5 by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s)

Reproducibility in the absence of selective reporting : An illustration from large-scale brain asymmetry research

Altres ajuts: Max Planck Society (Germany).The problem of poor reproducibility of scientific findings has received much attention over recent years, in a variety of fields including psychology and neuroscience. The problem has been partly attributed to publication bias and unwanted practices such as p-hacking. Low statistical power in individual studies is also understood to be an important factor. In a recent multisite collaborative study, we mapped brain anatomical left-right asymmetries for regional measures of surface area and cortical thickness, in 99 MRI datasets from around the world, for a total of over 17,000 participants. In the present study, we revisited these hemispheric effects from the perspective of reproducibility. Within each dataset, we considered that an effect had been reproduced when it matched the meta-analytic effect from the 98 other datasets, in terms of effect direction and significance threshold. In this sense, the results within each dataset were viewed as coming from separate studies in an "ideal publishing environment," that is, free from selective reporting and p hacking. We found an average reproducibility rate of 63.2% (SD = 22.9%, min = 22.2%, max = 97.0%). As expected, reproducibility was higher for larger effects and in larger datasets. Reproducibility was not obviously related to the age of participants, scanner field strength, FreeSurfer software version, cortical regional measurement reliability, or regional size. These findings constitute an empirical illustration of reproducibility in the absence of publication bias or p hacking, when assessing realistic biological effects in heterogeneous neuroscience data, and given typically-used sample sizes

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries-apart from Ecuador-across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups-the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths.Peer reviewe

Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018

Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations.Peer reviewe