Estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of establishing additional endovascular Thrombectomy stroke Centres in England::a discrete event simulation

Background We have previously modelled that the optimal number of comprehensive stroke centres (CSC) providing endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) in England would be 30 (net 6 new centres). We now estimate the relative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of increasing the number of centres from 24 to 30. Methods We constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) to estimate the effectiveness and lifetime cost-effectiveness (from a payer perspective) using 1 year’s incidence of stroke in England. 2000 iterations of the simulation were performed comparing baseline 24 centres to 30. Results Of 80,800 patients admitted to hospital with acute stroke/year, 21,740 would be affected by the service reconfiguration. The median time to treatment for eligible early presenters (< 270 min since onset) would reduce from 195 (IQR 155–249) to 165 (IQR 105–224) minutes. Our model predicts reconfiguration would mean an additional 33 independent patients (modified Rankin scale [mRS] 0–1) and 30 fewer dependent/dead patients (mRS 3–6) per year. The net addition of 6 centres generates 190 QALYs (95%CI − 6 to 399) and results in net savings to the healthcare system of £1,864,000/year (95% CI -1,204,000 to £5,017,000). The estimated budget impact was a saving of £980,000 in year 1 and £7.07 million in years 2 to 5. Conclusion Changes in acute stroke service configuration will produce clinical and cost benefits when the time taken for patients to receive treatment is reduced. Benefits are highly likely to be cost saving over 5 years before any capital investment above £8 million is required

Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) Phase 4 (2018) : Change management in allergic rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity using mobile technology

Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) has evolved from a guideline by using the best approach to integrated care pathways using mobile technology in patients with allergic rhinitis (AR) and asthma multimorbidity. The proposed next phase of ARIA is change management, with the aim of providing an active and healthy life to patients with rhinitis and to those with asthma multimorbidity across the lifecycle irrespective of their sex or socioeconomic status to reduce health and social inequities incurred by the disease. ARIA has followed the 8-step model of Kotter to assess and implement the effect of rhinitis on asthma multimorbidity and to propose multimorbid guidelines. A second change management strategy is proposed by ARIA Phase 4 to increase self-medication and shared decision making in rhinitis and asthma multimorbidity. An innovation of ARIA has been the development and validation of information technology evidence-based tools (Mobile Airways Sentinel Network [MASK]) that can inform patient decisions on the basis of a self-care plan proposed by the health care professional.Peer reviewe

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden

Acknowledgements: We thank colleagues within the Modelling, Evidence and Policy Research Group for useful feedback on this manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Availability of data and materials: The R code used in this research is available at https://gitlab.com/rasanderson/campylobacter-microsimulation; it is platform independent, R version 3.3.0 and above. Funding: This research was funded by Medical Research Council Grant, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Food Standards Agency through the Environmental and Social Ecology of Human Infectious Diseases Initiative (Sources, seasonality, transmission and control: Campylobacter and human behaviour in a changing environment (ENIGMA); Grant Reference G1100799-1). PRH, SJO’B, and IRL are funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infection, at the University of Liverpool. PRH and IRL are also funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, at King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

A 10 year study of hospitalized atrial fibrillation-related stroke in England and its association with uptake of oral anticoagulation

Aims: To determine whether changing patterns of anticoagulant use in atrial fibrillation (AF) have impacted on stroke rates in England. Methods and results: English national databases, 2006–2016, were interrogated to assess stroke admissions and oral anticoagulant use. The number of patients with known AF increased linearly from 692 054 to 983 254 (prevalence 1.29% vs. 1.71%). Hospital episodes of AF-related stroke/100 000 AF patients increased from 80/week in 2006 to 98/week in 2011 and declined to 86/week in 2016 (2006–2011 difference 18.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 17.9–18.1, 2011–2016 difference −12.0, 95% CI −12.1 to −11.9). Anticoagulant use amongst patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 increased from 48.0% to 78.6% and anti-platelet use declined from 42.9% to 16.1%; the greatest rate of change occurred in the second 5 year period (for anticoagulants 2006–2011 difference 4.8%, 95% CI 4.5–5.1%, 2011–2016 difference 25.8%, 95% CI 25.5–26.1%). After adjustment for AF prevalence, a 1% increase in anticoagulant use was associated with a 0.8% decrease in the weekly rate of AF-related stroke (incidence rate ratio 0.992, 95% CI 0.989–0.994). Had the use of anticoagulants remained at 2009 levels, 4068 (95% CI 4046–4089) more strokes would have been predicted in 2015/2016. Conclusion: Between 2006 and 2016, AF prevalence and anticoagulant use in England increased. From 2011, hospitalized AF-related stroke rates declined and were significantly associated with increased anticoagulant uptake

Where are people being tested for anti-HCV in England? Results from sentinel laboratory surveillance

Many people infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) are unaware of their infection and are, therefore. potentially infectious to others. To enable effective case‐finding policies to be developed, an understanding of where people, and injecting drug users (IDUs) in particular, are accessing HCV antibody testing is needed. HCV antibody testing data were collected electronically from 21 sentinel laboratories in England between 2002 and 2006 in this cross‐sectional study. Service types of the physician requesting the HCV test were identified and classified. Differences in people being tested in each service type and over time were investigated. Over half a million people were tested in 5 years. Whilst most testing took place in hospital, a large proportion of people were tested in community care, particularly in general practice surgeries and genito‐urinary medicine clinics. Younger people were more likely to be tested in community care, and there was evidence that testing differed according to ethnic status. IDUs were tested in all parts of the health services, although the highest proportion positive were from prisons and specialist services for drug users. Testing increased between 2002 and 2005 whilst the proportion of people testing positive declined. Routine laboratory data can provide valuable information on where people are being tested for HCV. Risk exposures should be investigated and testing targeted to people at higher risk for infection. Local laboratories should review data on testing locations and proportion positive to inform local initiatives to improve testing and yield

A cross-sectional study of knowledge of sex partner serostatus among high-risk Peruvian men who have sex with men and transgender women: implications for HIV prevention.

Knowledge of a sex partner's HIV serostatus can influence sexual behavior and inform harm-reduction strategies. We sought to determine how often Peruvian men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TW) knew the HIV serostatus of their sex partners, if this knowledge was associated with any predictive factors or unprotected anal intercourse (UAI), and if UAI was associated with partner serostatus. We analyzed data from the 2008 Peruvian MSM Sentinel Surveillance Survey. Data were collected by CASI about each participant's three most recent male sex partners. Primary outcome was knowledge of a partner's HIV test result. Multivariate analysis assessed the effect of age, education, sexual identity, number of male partners, alcohol use during intercourse, type of partnership and length of partnership using logistic regression. 735 participants provided data on 1,643 of their most recent sex partners from the last 3 months. 179/735 (24.4%) of all participants knew HIV test results for at least one of their 3 most recent partners, corresponding to 230/1643 (14.0%) of all sexual partnerships in the last 3 months. In multivariate analysis, casual (OR: 0.27, 95% CI: 0.17-0.42) and exchange sex (OR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.11-0.88) partners, compared to stable partners, were negatively associated with knowledge of partner serostatus, whereas relationships lasting longer than one night (&lt;3 months OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.39-3.51; 3 months to 1 year OR: 3.00, 95% CI: 1.80-5.01; ≥ 1 year OR: 4.13, 95% CI: 2.40-7.10) were positively associated with knowledge of partner serostatus. Knowledge of partner serostatus was not associated with unprotected anal intercourse with that partner. Few MSM and TW in Peru know their partners' HIV serostatus. Our findings suggest that the type and length of partnership influence the likelihood of knowing a partner's serostatus. Further research should explore the contexts and practices of partner communication, their effect on sexual behavior, and interventions to promote discussion of HIV testing and serostatus as an HIV prevention strategy in this population