Multiple shifts and fractional integration in the us and uk unemployment rates

This paper analyses the long-run behaviour of the US and UK unemployment rates by testing for possibly fractional orders of integration and multiple shifts using a sample of over 100 annual observations. The results show that the orders of integration are higher than 0 in both series, which implies long memory. If we assume that the underlying disturbances are white noise, the values are higher than 0.5, i.e., nonstationary. However, if the disturbances are autocorrelated, the orders of integration are in the interval (0, 0.5), implying stationarity and mean-reverting behaviour. Moreover, when multiple shifts are taken into account, unemployment is more persistent in the US than in the UK, implying the need for stronger policy action in the former to bring unemployment back to its original level

A922 Sequential measurement of 1 hour creatinine clearance (1-CRCL) in critically ill patients at risk of acute kidney injury (AKI)

Meeting abstrac

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Methods Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.Peer reviewe

Integrative literature review of the reported uses of serological tests in leprosy management

Abstract: An integrative literature review was conducted to synthesize available publications regarding the potential use of serological tests in leprosy programs. We searched the databases Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde, Índice Bibliográfico Espanhol em Ciências da Saúde, Acervo da Biblioteca da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Hanseníase, National Library of Medicine, Scopus, Ovid, Cinahl, and Web of Science for articles investigating the use of serological tests for antibodies against phenolic glycolipid-I (PGL-I), ML0405, ML2331, leprosy IDRI diagnostic-1 (LID-1), and natural disaccharide octyl-leprosy IDRI diagnostic-1 (NDO-LID). From an initial pool of 3.514 articles, 40 full-length articles fulfilled our inclusion criteria. Based on these papers, we concluded that these antibodies can be used to assist in diagnosing leprosy, detecting neuritis, monitoring therapeutic efficacy, and monitoring household contacts or at-risk populations in leprosy-endemic areas. Thus, available data suggest that serological tests could contribute substantially to leprosy management

Interventions to improve contact tracing for tuberculosis in specific groups and in wider populations: an evidence synthesis

Background The tracing and screening of people who have had contact with an active case of tuberculosis (TB) is an important element of TB control strategies. Objectives This study aimed to carry out a review of evidence regarding TB contact tracing, with a particular emphasis on research that was applicable to TB contact tracing in specific population groups in the UK. Design An evidence synthesis of literature of any study design on TB contact tracing in developed countries was carried out. Setting Any setting. Population Individuals found to have active TB disease, and people who have come into contact with them. Interventions Contact-tracing investigations. Main outcome measures Any outcome related to TB infection, contact investigations and/or the views of staff, people with TB disease, or their contacts. Data sources Searches for research published 1995 onwards were undertaken in the following databases: MEDLINE via Ovid SP, EMBASE via Ovid SP, EconLit via Ovid SP, PsycINFO via Ovid SP, Social Policy and Practice via Ovid SP, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature via EBSCOhost, Science and Social Science Citation Indices via Web of Science and The Cochrane Library via Wiley Online Library. Review methods The study comprised a review of TB contact tracing in specific population groups and a review in wider populations. A narrative synthesis was completed and a logic model was developed from the literature. Results There were 112 articles in the review: 23 related to specific populations and 89 related to wider populations. The literature was of limited quality, with much general description of investigations. We identified only two (uncontrolled) studies that could be considered evaluative. Although the limitations of the evidence should be recognised, the review suggested the following: the value of a location-based approach, working with local communities and the media, partnership working, using molecular epidemiological testing, ensuring adequate systems and addressing fear of stigma. The literature on investigations for specific populations has much concordance with that reporting findings from wider population groups. The recognised limitations of conventional investigation methods may, however, be exacerbated in specific populations. Limitations The English-language inclusion criterion may have limited the breadth of countries represented. A meta-analysis was not possible owing to the nature of the literature. Relevant studies may have been missed by our searches, which used terminology relating to contact tracing rather than to active case finding or screening. Conclusions The review identified a sizeable volume of literature relating to contact investigations. However, it is currently predominantly descriptive, with little evaluative work underpinning investigations in either specific or wider populations. Our findings are, therefore, based on limited evidence. Further research is required if robust conclusions are to be made. Future work Research should further explore the development of measures that can be used to compare the effectiveness of different contact investigations, in studies using evaluative designs

Reducing Plug and Process Loads for a Large Scale, Low Energy Office Building: NREL's Research Support Facility

The submitted manuscript has been offered by an employee of the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LL