Role of spatial anisotropy in design storm generation: Experiment and interpretation

Rainfall accumulation depths over a given area are strongly dependent on the shape of the storm together with its direction of advection. A method to produce design storms exhibiting anisotropic spatial scaling is presented by combining a state-of-the-art stochastic rainfall generator STEPS with the linear generalized scale invariance (GSI) notation. The enhanced model is used to create ensembles of design storms based on an extreme storm with a distinct rainband shape observed in Melbourne, Australia. Design storms are generated both with and without accounting for anisotropy. Effect of anisotropy on precipitation characteristics is studied using the entire region covered by the radar (radar scale) and at a significantly smaller catchment scale. A rainfall-runoff model is applied to route the rainfall through the catchment into streamflow. Accounting for anisotropy allows for a more realistic description of precipitation features at the radar scale. At the catchment scale, anisotropy increases the probability of high rainfall accumulations, which translates into greater flood volumes. No discernible difference was observed in streamflow characteristics after controlling for the accumulation over the catchment. This could be explained by a lower importance of anisotropy relative to other factors affecting streamflow generation, and by the difficulties in creating representative rainfall temporal properties at the catchment scale when the radar scale is used for model calibration. The proposed method provides a tool to create ensembles of design storms when the anisotropic shape of the fields is of importance.Peer reviewe

Associations of Underlying Health Conditions With Anxiety and Depression Among Outpatients: Modification Effects of Suspected COVID-19 Symptoms, Health-Related and Preventive Behaviors

Objectives: We explored the association of underlying health conditions (UHC) with depression and anxiety, and examined the modification effects of suspected COVID-19 symptoms (S-COVID-19-S), health-related behaviors (HB), and preventive behaviors (PB).Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 8,291 outpatients aged 18–85 years, in 18 hospitals and health centers across Vietnam from 14th February to May 31, 2020. We collected the data regarding participant's characteristics, UHC, HB, PB, depression, and anxiety.Results: People with UHC had higher odds of depression (OR = 2.11; p < 0.001) and anxiety (OR = 2.86; p < 0.001) than those without UHC. The odds of depression and anxiety were significantly higher for those with UHC and S-COVID-19-S (p < 0.001); and were significantly lower for those had UHC and interacted with “unchanged/more” physical activity (p < 0.001), or “unchanged/more” drinking (p < 0.001 for only anxiety), or “unchanged/healthier” eating (p < 0.001), and high PB score (p < 0.001), as compared to those without UHC and without S-COVID-19-S, “never/stopped/less” physical activity, drinking, “less healthy” eating, and low PB score, respectively.Conclusion: S-COVID-19-S worsen psychological health in patients with UHC. Physical activity, drinking, healthier eating, and high PB score were protective factors

Determination of the top-quark pole mass using tt̄ + 1-jet events collected with the ATLAS experiment in 7 TeV pp collisions

The normalized differential cross section for top-quark pair production in association with at least one jet is studied as a function of the inverse of the invariant mass of the tt̄ + 1-jet system. This distribution can be used for a precise determination of the top-quark mass since gluon radiation depends on the mass of the quarks. The experimental analysis is based on proton-proton collision data collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.6 fb−¹. The selected events were identified using the lepton+jets top-quark-pair decay channel, where lepton refers to either an electron or a muon. The observed distribution is compared to a theoretical prediction at next-to-leading-order accuracy in quantum chromodynamics using the pole-mass scheme. With this method, the measured value of the top-quark pole mass, mtpole, is: mtpole=173.7±1.5(stat.)±1.4(syst.)−0.5+1.0(theory)GeV. This result represents the most precise measurement of the top-quark pole mass to date

The influence of human genetic variation on early transcriptional responses and protective immunity following immunization with Rotarix vaccine in infants in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam : a study protocol for an open single-arm interventional trial [awaiting peer review]

Background: Rotavirus (RoV) remains the leading cause of acute gastroenteritis in infants and children aged under five years in both high- and low-middle-income countries (LMICs). In LMICs, RoV infections are associated with substantial mortality. Two RoV vaccines (Rotarix and Rotateq) are widely available for use in infants, both of which have been shown to be highly efficacious in Europe and North America. However, for unknown reasons, these RoV vaccines have markedly lower efficacy in LMICs. We hypothesize that poor RoV vaccine efficacy across in certain regions may be associated with genetic heritability or gene expression in the human host. Methods/design: We designed an open-label single-arm interventional trial with the Rotarix RoV vaccine to identify genetic and transcriptomic markers associated with generating a protective immune response against RoV. Overall, 1,000 infants will be recruited prior to Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccinations at two months of age and vaccinated with oral Rotarix vaccine at two and three months, after which the infants will be followed-up for diarrheal disease until 18 months of age. Blood sampling for genetics, transcriptomics, and immunological analysis will be conducted before each Rotarix vaccination, 2-3 days post-vaccination, and at each follow-up visit (i.e. 6, 12 and 18 months of age). Stool samples will be collected during each diarrheal episode to identify RoV infection. The primary outcome will be Rotarix vaccine failure events (i.e. symptomatic RoV infection despite vaccination), secondary outcomes will be antibody responses and genotypic characterization of the infection virus in Rotarix failure events. Discussion: This study will be the largest and best powered study of its kind to be conducted to date in infants, and will be critical for our understanding of RoV immunity, human genetics in the Vietnam population, and mechanisms determining RoV vaccine-mediated protection. Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, ID: NCT03587389. Registered on 16 July 2018

The James Webb Space Telescope Mission

Twenty-six years ago a small committee report, building on earlier studies, expounded a compelling and poetic vision for the future of astronomy, calling for an infrared-optimized space telescope with an aperture of at least $4m$. With the support of their governments in the US, Europe, and Canada, 20,000 people realized that vision as the $6.5m$ James Webb Space Telescope. A generation of astronomers will celebrate their accomplishments for the life of the mission, potentially as long as 20 years, and beyond. This report and the scientific discoveries that follow are extended thank-you notes to the 20,000 team members. The telescope is working perfectly, with much better image quality than expected. In this and accompanying papers, we give a brief history, describe the observatory, outline its objectives and current observing program, and discuss the inventions and people who made it possible. We cite detailed reports on the design and the measured performance on orbit.Comment: Accepted by PASP for the special issue on The James Webb Space Telescope Overview, 29 pages, 4 figure

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury

Measurement of the top quark mass in the t(t)over-bar -> lepton plus jets and t(t)over-bar -> dilepton channels using root s=7 TeV ATLAS data

The top quark mass was measured in the channels $t\bar{t} \to \mathrm{lepton+jets}$ and $t\bar{t} \to \mathrm{dilepton}$ (lepton=$e, \mu$) based on ATLAS data recorded in 2011. The data were taken at the LHC with a proton--proton centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 4.6fb$^{-1}$. The $t\bar{t} \to \mathrm{lepton+jets}$ analysis uses a three-dimensional template technique which determines the top quark mass together with a global jet energy scale factor (JSF), and a relative $b$-to-light-jet energy scale factor (bJSF), where the terms $b$-jets and light-jets refer to jets originating from $b$-quarks and $u, d, c, s$-quarks or gluons, respectively. The analysis of the $t\bar{t} \to \mathrm{dilepton}$ channel exploits a one-dimensional template method using the $m_{\ell b}$ observable, defined as the average invariant mass of the two lepton+$b$-jet pairs in each event. The top quark mass is measured to be $172.33\pm 0.75(\rm {stat}) \pm 1.02(\rm {syst})$ GeV, and $173.79 \pm 0.54({\rm stat}) \pm 1.30({\rm syst})$ GeV in the $t\bar{t} \to lepton+jets$ and $t\bar{t} \to dilepton$ channels, respectively. The combination of the two results yields $m_{\mathrm top} = 172.99 \pm 0.48({\rm stat}) \pm 0.78({\rm syst})$ GeV, with a total uncertainty of $0.91$ GeV.Comment: 35 pages plus author list + cover pages (51 pages total), 6 figures, 4 tables, published on Eur. Phys. J. C (2015) 75:330. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/TOPQ-2013-02

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Methadone Maintenance Therapy in Vietnam: An Overview and Scaling-Up Plan

Vietnam is among the countries with the highest rate of HIV transmission through injecting drug users. HIV prevalence among injecting drug users is 20% and up to 50% in many provinces. An estimated number of drug users in the country by the end of 2011 were 171,000 in which the most common is heroin (85%). Detoxification at home, community, and in rehabilitation centers have been the main modalities for managing heroin addiction until Methadone Maintenance Treatment (MMT) was piloted in 2008. Recent reports have demonstrated positive treatment outcomes. Incidence of HIV was found remarkably low among patients on MMT. Treatment has significantly improved the quality of life as well as stability for society. The government has granted the Ministry of Health (MoH) to expand Methadone treatment to at least 30 provinces to provide treatment for more than 80,000 drug users by 2015. The Vietnam Administration for HIV/AIDS Control (VAAC) and MOH have outlined the role and responsibility of key departments at the central and local levels in implementing and maintaining MMT treatment. This paper will describe the achievements of the MMT pilot program and the scaling-up plan as well as strategies to ensure quality and sustainability and to overcome the challenges in the coming years