Automated Approaches for Capturing Localized Tsunami Response—Application to the French Coastlines

Local bathymetry and onshore features can have a substantial effect on the spatial variability of the hazard from an incoming tsunami. In a warning context, being able to provide localized tsunami forecasts at strategic locations would therefore help mitigate the damage. Despite the recent advancements in computing powers and the development of highly efficient tsunami codes, capturing this local variability can oftentimes be infeasible in a warning setting. Traditional high-resolution simulations which can capture these localized effects are often too costly to run “on-the-fly.” Alternative approaches that capture the localized response to an incoming tsunami, which are based upon using the maximum wave heights from a computationally cheap regional forecast, are developed here. These alternative approaches are envisaged to aid in a warning center's ability at providing extremely rapid localized forecasts. The approaches focus upon two different methods: transfer functions and machine learning techniques. The transfer function is based upon a recent extension to the established Green's Law. The extended version introduces local amplification parameters, with the aim of capturing the neglected localized effects. An automated approach which optimizes for these local amplification parameters is outlined and the performance of the transfer function is explored. A machine learning model is also trained and used to predict the localized tsunami hazard. Its performance is compared to the extended Green's Law approach for a site along the French coast. These developed methods showcase promising techniques that a tsunami warning center could use to provide high-resolution warnings

Crustal structure of Guadeloupe Islands and the Lesser Antilles Arc from a new gravity and magnetic synthesis

Guadeloupe Island (West French Indies) is one of the twenty islands that compose the Lesser Antilles Arc, which results from the subduction of the Atlantic Ocean plate beneath the Caribbean one. The island lies in a complex volcano-tectonic system and the need to understand its geological context has led to numerous on- and offshore geophysical investigations. This work presents the compilation and processing of available, on-land, airborne and marine, gravity and magnetic data acquired during the last 40 years on Guadeloupe Islands and at the scale of the Lesser Antilles Arc. The overall dataset provides new Bouguer and reduced to the pole magnetic anomaly maps at the highest achievable resolution. Regionally, the main central negative gravity trend of the arc allows defining two subsident areas. The first one is parallel to the arc direction (~N160°E) to the north, whereas the second unexpected southern one is oriented parallel to oceanic ridges (N130°E). Along the Outer Arc, the long wavelength positive anomaly is interpreted, at least along the Karukera Spur, as an up-rise of the volcanic basement in agreement with the seismic studies. To the NE of Guadeloupe, the detailed analysis of the geophysical anomalies outlines a series of structural discontinuities consistent with the main bathymetric morphologies, and in continuity of the main fault systems already reported in this area. Based on geophysical evidences, this large scale deformation and faulting of the Outer Arc presumably primarily affects the Atlantic subducting plate and secondarily deforms the upper Caribbean plate and the accretion prism. At the scale of Guadeloupe Island, joined gravity and magnetic modeling has been initiated based on existing interpretation of old seismic refraction profiles, with a general structure in three main layers. According to our geophysical anomalies, additional local structures are also modeled in agreement with geological observations: i) the gravity and magnetic signals confirm an up-rise of the volcanic basement below the limestone platforms outcropping on Grande-Terre Island ; ii) the ancient volcanic complexes of Basse-Terre Island are modeled with high density and reverse magnetized formations; iii) the recent volcanic centre is associated with formations consistent with the low measured density and the underlying hydrothermal system. The EW models coherently image a NNW-SSE depression structure in half-graben beneath Basse-Terre Island, its western scarp following the arc direction in agreement with bathymetric and seismic studies to the north of the island. The so-defined depressed area, and particularly its opening in half-graben toward the SW, is interpreted as the present-day front of deformation of the upper plate associated with the recent volcanic activity on and around Guadeloupe. Based on this regional deformation model, perspectives are given for further integrated investigation of key targets to address the internal structure and evolution of the Lesser Antilles Arc and Guadeloupe volcanic system

Structure and evolution of the Gulf of Lions: The Sardinia seismic experiment and the GOLD (Gulf of Lions Drilling) project

International audienceThe study of the deep structure and evolution of passive continental margins is important for the understanding of rifting processes and the formation of associated sedimentary basins. Since the classical models of McKenzie (1978) and Wernicke (1985), understanding how passive continental margins form, that is to say mainly the way that continental lithosphere is thinned leading to subsidence, remains one of the main challenges in the Earth sciences. Many recent observations and discoveries have modified our basic views of margin formation. The conservational models paradigm (i.e., simple shear, pure shear, or polyphase models), which exclude exchanges between lower continental crust and upper mantle and which are usually proposed to explain lithospheric stretching and consequent crustal thinning of passive continental margins, fail to completely explain all these observations. Furthermore, these models imply a large amount of horizontal movement, movements not observed in the field. In consequence, new concepts need to be built and tested

Eocene intra-plate shortening responsible for the rise of a faunal pathway in the northeastern Caribbean realm

Intriguing latest Eocene land-faunal dispersals between South America and the Greater Antilles (northern Caribbean) has inspired the hypothesis of the GAARlandia (Greater Antilles Aves Ridge) land bridge. This landbridge, however, should have crossed the Caribbean oceanic plate, and the geological evolution of its rise and demise, or its geodynamic forcing, remain unknown. Here we present the results of a land-sea survey from the northeast Caribbean plate, combined with chronostratigraphic data, revealing a regional episode of mid to late Eocene, trench-normal, E-W shortening and crustal thickening by ∼25%. This shortening led to a regional late Eocene–early Oligocene hiatus in the sedimentary record revealing the location of an emerged land (the Greater Antilles-Northern Lesser Antilles, or GrANoLA, landmass), consistent with the GAARlandia hypothesis. Subsequent submergence is explained by combined trench-parallel extension and thermal relaxation following a shift of arc magmatism, expressed by a regional early Miocene transgression. We tentatively link the NE Caribbean intra-plate shortening to a well-known absolute and relative North American and Caribbean plate motion change, which may provide focus for the search of the remaining connection between ‘GrANoLA’ land and South America, through the Aves Ridge or Lesser Antilles island arc. Our study highlights the how regional geodynamic evolution may have driven paleogeographic change that is still reflected in current biology

Structure of the Lesser Antilles subduction forearc and backstop from 3D seismic tomography

In 2007 the Sismantilles II experiment was conducted to constrain structure and seismicity in the central Lesser Antilles subduction zone. The seismic refraction data recorded by a network of 27 OBSs over an area of 65 km×95 km provide new insights on the crustal structure of the forearc offshore Martinique and Dominica islands. The tomographic inversion of first arrival travel times provides a 3D P-wave velocity model down to 15 km. Basement velocity gradients depict that the forearc is made up of two distinct units: A high velocity gradient domain named the inner forearc in comparison to a lower velocity gradient domain located further trenchward named the outer forearc. Whereas the inner forearc appears as a rigid block uplifted and possibly tilted as a whole to the south, short wavelength deformations of the outer forearc basement are observed, beneath a 3 to 6 km thick sedimentary pile, in relation with the subduction of the Tiburon Ridge and associated sea floor reliefs. North, offshore Dominica Island, the outer forearc is 70 km wide. It extends as far as 180 km to the east of the volcanic front where it acts as a backstop on which the accretionary wedge developed. Its width decreases strongly to the south to terminate offshore Martinique where the inner forearc acts as the backstop. The inner forearc is likely the extension at depth of the Mesozoic magmatic crust outcropping to the north in La Désirade Island and along the scarp of the Karukera Spur. The outer forearc could be either the eastern prolongation of the inner forearc, but the crust was thinned and fractured during the past tectonic history of the area or by recent subduction processes, or an oceanic terrane more recently accreted to the island arc.Peer Reviewe

Limits of the seismogenic zone in the epicentral region of the 26 December 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake: Results from seismic refraction and wide-angle reflection surveys and thermal modeling

The 26 December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 9.1) initiated around 30 km depth and ruptured 1300 km of the Indo-Australian Sunda plate boundary. During the Sumatra OBS (ocean bottom seismometer) survey, a wide angle seismic profile was acquired across the epicentral region. A seismic velocity model was obtained from combined travel time tomography and forward modeling. Together with reflection seismic data from the SeaCause II cruise, the deep structure of the source region of the great earthquake is revealed. Four to five kilometers of sediments overlie the oceanic crust at the trench, and the subducting slab can be imaged down to a depth of 35 km. We find a crystalline backstop 120 km from the trench axis, below the fore arc basin. A high velocity zone at the lower landward limit of the raycovered domain, at 22 km depth, marks a shallow continental Moho, 170 km from the trench. The deep structure obtained from the seismic data was used to construct a thermal model of the fore arc in order to predict the limits of the seismogenic zone along the plate boundary fault. Assuming 100C-150C as its updip limit, the seismogenic zone is predicted to begin 530 km from the trench. The downdip limit of the 2004 rupture as inferred from aftershocks is within the 350C 450C temperature range, but this limit is 210-250 km from the trench axis and is much deeper than the fore arc Moho. The deeper part of the rupture occurred along the contact between the mantle wedge and the downgoing plate

Tsunami hazards in the Catalan Coast, a low-intensity seismic activity area

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2918-zThe potential impacts of tsunamis along the Catalan Coast (NW Mediterranean) are analysed using numerical modelling. The region is characterized by moderate to low seismic activity and by moderate- to low-magnitude earthquakes. However, the occurrence of historical strong earthquakes and the location of several active offshore faults in front of the coast suggest that the possibility of an earthquake-triggered tsunami is not negligible although of low probability. Up to five faults have been identified to generate tsunamis, being the highest associated possible seismic magnitudes of up to 7.6. Coastal flooding and port agitation are characterized using the Worst-case Credible Tsunami Scenario Analysis approach. The results show a multiple fault source contribution to tsunami hazard. The shelf dimensions and the existence of submerged canyons control the tsunami propagation. In wide shelves, waves travelling offshore may become trapped by refraction causing the wave energy to reach the coastline at some distance from the origin. The free surface water elevation increases at the head of the canyons due to the sharp depth gradients. The effects of potential tsunamis would be very harmful in low-lying coastal stretches, such as deltas, with a high population concentration, assets and infrastructures. The Ebro delta appears to be the most exposed coast, and about the 20% of the delta surface is prone to flooding due to its extremely low-lying nature. The activity at Barcelona port will be severely affected by inflow backflow current at the entrance of up to 2 m/s.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Oceanic Residual Depth Measurements, the Plate Cooling Model and Global Dynamic Topography

Convective circulation of the mantle causes deflections of the Earth's surface that vary as a function of space and time. Accurate measurements of this dynamic topography are complicated by the need to isolate and remove other sources of elevation, arising from flexure and lithospheric isostasy. The complex architecture of continental lithosphere means that measurement of present-day dynamic topography is more straightforward in the oceanic realm. Here, we present an updated methodology for calculating oceanic residual bathymetry, which is a proxy for dynamic topography. Corrections are applied that account for the effects of sedimentary loading and compaction, for anomalous crustal thickness variations, for subsidence of oceanic lithosphere as a function of age, and for non-hydrostatic geoid height variations. Errors are formally propagated to estimate measurement uncertainties. We apply this methodology to a global database of 1,936 seismic surveys located on oceanic crust and generate 2,297 spot measurements of residual topography, including 1,161 with crustal corrections. The resultant anomalies have amplitudes of ±1 km and wavelengths of ∼1,000 km. Spectral analysis of our database using cross-validation demonstrates that spherical harmonics up to and including degree 30 (i.e. wavelengths down to 1,300 km) are required to accurately represent these observations. Truncation of the expansion at a lower maximum degree erroneously increases the amplitude of inferred long-wavelength dynamic topography. There is a strong correlation between our observations and free-air gravity anomalies, magmatism, ridge seismicity, vertical motions of adjacent rifted margins, and global tomographic models. We infer that shorter wavelength components of the observed pattern of dynamic topography may be attributable to the presence of thermal anomalies within the shallow asthenospheric mantle.This research is supported by a BP-Cambridge collaboration

Crustal Structure of the Ionian Basin and Eastern Sicily Margin: Results From a Wide-Angle Seismic Survey

In the Ionian Sea (central Mediterranean) the slow convergence between Africa and Eurasia results in the formation of a narrow subduction zone. The nature of the crust of the subducting plate remains debated and could represent the last remnants of the Neo‐Tethys ocean. The origin of the Ionian basin is also under discussion, especially concerning the rifting mechanisms as the Malta Escarpment could represent a remnant of this opening. This subduction retreats toward the south‐east (motion occurring since the last 35 Ma) but is confined to the narrow Ionian basin. A major lateral slab tear fault is required to accommodate the slab roll‐back. This fault is thought to propagate along the eastern Sicily margin but its precise location remains controversial. This study focuses on the deep crustal structure of the eastern Sicily margin and the Malta Escarpment. We present two two‐dimensional P wave velocity models obtained from forward modeling of wide‐angle seismic data acquired onboard the R/V Meteor during the DIONYSUS cruise in 2014. The results image an oceanic crust within the Ionian basin as well as the deep structure of the Malta Escarpment, which presents characteristics of a transform margin. A deep and asymmetrical sedimentary basin is imaged south of the Messina strait and seems to have opened between the Calabrian and Peloritan continental terranes. The interpretation of the velocity models suggests that the tear fault is located east of the Malta Escarpment, along the Alfeo fault system