Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Turnip mosaic potyvirus probably first spread to Eurasian brassica crops from wild orchids about 1000 years ago

Turnip mosaic potyvirus (TuMV) is probably the most widespread and damaging virus that infects cultivated brassicas worldwide. Previous work has indicated that the virus originated in western Eurasia, with all of its closest relatives being viruses of monocotyledonous plants. Here we report that we have identified a sister lineage of TuMV-like potyviruses (TuMV-OM) from European orchids. The isolates of TuMV-OM form a monophyletic sister lineage to the brassica-infecting TuMVs (TuMV-BIs), and are nested within a clade of monocotyledon-infecting viruses. Extensive host-range tests showed that all of the TuMV-OMs are biologically similar to, but distinct from, TuMV-BIs and do not readily infect brassicas. We conclude that it is more likely that TuMV evolved from a TuMV-OM-like ancestor than the reverse. We did Bayesian coalescent analyses using a combination of novel and published sequence data from four TuMV genes [helper component-proteinase protein (HC-Pro), protein 3(P3), nuclear inclusion b protein (NIb), and coat protein (CP)]. Three genes (HC-Pro, P3, and NIb), but not the CP gene, gave results indicating that the TuMV-BI viruses diverged from TuMV-OMs around 1000 years ago. Only 150 years later, the four lineages of the present global population of TuMV-BIs diverged from one another. These dates are congruent with historical records of the spread of agriculture in Western Europe. From about 1200 years ago, there was a warming of the climate, and agriculture and the human population of the region greatly increased. Farming replaced woodlands, fostering viruses and aphid vectors that could invade the crops, which included several brassica cultivars and weeds. Later, starting 500 years ago, inter-continental maritime trade probably spread the TuMV-BIs to the remainder of the world

Protocol for the Foot in Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis trial (FiJIA): a randomised controlled trial of an integrated foot care programme for foot problems in JIA

<b>Background</b>: Foot and ankle problems are a common but relatively neglected manifestation of juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Studies of medical and non-medical interventions have shown that clinical outcome measures can be improved. However existing data has been drawn from small non-randomised clinical studies of single interventions that appear to under-represent the adult population suffering from juvenile idiopathic arthritis. To date, no evidence of combined therapies or integrated care for juvenile idiopathic arthritis patients with foot and ankle problems exists. <b>Methods/design</b>: An exploratory phase II non-pharmacological randomised controlled trial where patients including young children, adolescents and adults with juvenile idiopathic arthritis and associated foot/ankle problems will be randomised to receive integrated podiatric care via a new foot care programme, or to receive standard podiatry care. Sixty patients (30 in each arm) including children, adolescents and adults diagnosed with juvenile idiopathic arthritis who satisfy the inclusion and exclusion criteria will be recruited from 2 outpatient centres of paediatric and adult rheumatology respectively. Participants will be randomised by process of minimisation using the Minim software package. The primary outcome measure is the foot related impairment measured by the Juvenile Arthritis Disability Index questionnaire's impairment domain at 6 and 12 months, with secondary outcomes including disease activity score, foot deformity score, active/limited foot joint counts, spatio-temporal and plantar-pressure gait parameters, health related quality of life and semi-quantitative ultrasonography score for inflammatory foot lesions. The new foot care programme will comprise rapid assessment and investigation, targeted treatment, with detailed outcome assessment and follow-up at minimum intervals of 3 months. Data will be collected at baseline, 6 months and 12 months from baseline. Intention to treat data analysis will be conducted. A full health economic evaluation will be conducted alongside the trial and will evaluate the cost effectiveness of the intervention. This will consider the cost per improvement in Juvenile Arthritis Disability Index, and cost per quality adjusted life year gained. In addition, a discrete choice experiment will elicit willingness to pay values and a cost benefit analysis will also be undertaken

Altered Rest-Activity Patterns Evolve via Circadian Independent Mechanisms in Cave Adapted Balitorid Loaches

Circadian rhythms and rest homeostasis are independent processes, each regulating important components of rest-activity patterns. Evolutionarily, the two are distinct from one another; total rest time is maintained unaffected even when circadian pacemaker cells are ablated. Throughout the animal kingdom, there exists a huge variation in rest-activity patterns, yet it is unclear how these behaviors have evolved. Here we show that four species of balitorid cavefish have greatly reduced rest times in comparison to rest times of their surface relatives. All four cave species retained biological rhythmicity, and in three of the four there is a pronounced 24-hour rhythm; in the fourth there is an altered rhythmicity of 38–40 hours. Thus, consistent changes in total rest have evolved in these species independent of circadian rhythmicity. Taken together, our data suggest that consistent reduction in total rest times were accomplished evolutionarily through alterations in rest homeostasis

Ligand modulation of sidechain dynamics in a wild-type human GPCR

GPCRs regulate all aspects of human physiology, and biophysical studies have deepened our understanding of GPCR conformational regulation by different ligands. Yet there is no experimental evidence for how sidechain dynamics control allosteric transitions between GPCR conformations. To address this deficit, we generated samples of a wild-type GPCR (A2AR) that are deuterated apart from 1H/13C NMR probes at isoleucine d1 methyl groups, which facilitated 1H/13C methyl TROSY NMR measurements with opposing ligands. Our data indicate that low [Na+] is required to allow large agonist-induced structural changes in A2AR, and that patterns of sidechain dynamics substantially differ between agonist (NECA) and inverse agonist (ZM241385) bound receptors, with the inverse agonist suppressing fast ps-ns timescale motions at the G protein binding site. Our approach to GPCR NMR creates a framework for exploring how different regions of a receptor respond to different ligands or signaling proteins through modulation of fast ps-ns sidechain dynamics

Measurement of the inclusive and dijet cross-sections of b-jets in pp collisions at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The inclusive and dijet production cross-sections have been measured for jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of sqrt(s) = 7 TeV, using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements use data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 34 pb^-1. The b-jets are identified using either a lifetime-based method, where secondary decay vertices of b-hadrons in jets are reconstructed using information from the tracking detectors, or a muon-based method where the presence of a muon is used to identify semileptonic decays of b-hadrons inside jets. The inclusive b-jet cross-section is measured as a function of transverse momentum in the range 20 < pT < 400 GeV and rapidity in the range |y| < 2.1. The bbbar-dijet cross-section is measured as a function of the dijet invariant mass in the range 110 < m_jj < 760 GeV, the azimuthal angle difference between the two jets and the angular variable chi in two dijet mass regions. The results are compared with next-to-leading-order QCD predictions. Good agreement is observed between the measured cross-sections and the predictions obtained using POWHEG + Pythia. MC@NLO + Herwig shows good agreement with the measured bbbar-dijet cross-section. However, it does not reproduce the measured inclusive cross-section well, particularly for central b-jets with large transverse momenta.Comment: 10 pages plus author list (21 pages total), 8 figures, 1 table, final version published in European Physical Journal

Jet energy measurement with the ATLAS detector in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

The jet energy scale and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector at the LHC in proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 38 pb-1. Jets are reconstructed with the anti-kt algorithm with distance parameters R=0. 4 or R=0. 6. Jet energy and angle corrections are determined from Monte Carlo simulations to calibrate jets with transverse momenta pT≥20 GeV and pseudorapidities {pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy systematic uncertainty is estimated using the single isolated hadron response measured in situ and in test-beams, exploiting the transverse momentum balance between central and forward jets in events with dijet topologies and studying systematic variations in Monte Carlo simulations. The jet energy uncertainty is less than 2. 5 % in the central calorimeter region ({pipe}η{pipe}<0. 8) for jets with 60≤pT<800 GeV, and is maximally 14 % for pT<30 GeV in the most forward region 3. 2≤{pipe}η{pipe}<4. 5. The jet energy is validated for jet transverse momenta up to 1 TeV to the level of a few percent using several in situ techniques by comparing a well-known reference such as the recoiling photon pT, the sum of the transverse momenta of tracks associated to the jet, or a system of low-pT jets recoiling against a high-pT jet. More sophisticated jet calibration schemes are presented based on calorimeter cell energy density weighting or hadronic properties of jets, aiming for an improved jet energy resolution and a reduced flavour dependence of the jet response. The systematic uncertainty of the jet energy determined from a combination of in situ techniques is consistent with the one derived from single hadron response measurements over a wide kinematic range. The nominal corrections and uncertainties are derived for isolated jets in an inclusive sample of high-pT jets. Special cases such as event topologies with close-by jets, or selections of samples with an enhanced content of jets originating from light quarks, heavy quarks or gluons are also discussed and the corresponding uncertainties are determined. © 2013 CERN for the benefit of the ATLAS collaboration

Measurement of the cross-section of high transverse momentum vector bosons reconstructed as single jets and studies of jet substructure in pp collisions at √s = 7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a measurement of the cross-section for high transverse momentum W and Z bosons produced in pp collisions and decaying to all-hadronic final states. The data used in the analysis were recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider at a centre-of-mass energy of √s = 7 TeV;{\rm Te}{\rm V}$and correspond to an integrated luminosity of$4.6\;{\rm f}{{{\rm b}}^{-1}}$. The measurement is performed by reconstructing the boosted W or Z bosons in single jets. The reconstructed jet mass is used to identify the W and Z bosons, and a jet substructure method based on energy cluster information in the jet centre-of-mass frame is used to suppress the large multi-jet background. The cross-section for events with a hadronically decaying W or Z boson, with transverse momentum${{p}_{{\rm T}}}\gt 320\;{\rm Ge}{\rm V}$and pseudorapidity$|\eta |\lt 1.9$, is measured to be${{\sigma }_{W+Z}}=8.5\pm 1.7$ pb and is compared to next-to-leading-order calculations. The selected events are further used to study jet grooming techniques

Observation of associated near-side and away-side long-range correlations in √sNN=5.02 TeV proton-lead collisions with the ATLAS detector

Two-particle correlations in relative azimuthal angle (Δϕ) and pseudorapidity (Δη) are measured in √sNN=5.02  TeV p+Pb collisions using the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The measurements are performed using approximately 1  μb-1 of data as a function of transverse momentum (pT) and the transverse energy (ΣETPb) summed over 3.1<η<4.9 in the direction of the Pb beam. The correlation function, constructed from charged particles, exhibits a long-range (2<|Δη|<5) “near-side” (Δϕ∼0) correlation that grows rapidly with increasing ΣETPb. A long-range “away-side” (Δϕ∼π) correlation, obtained by subtracting the expected contributions from recoiling dijets and other sources estimated using events with small ΣETPb, is found to match the near-side correlation in magnitude, shape (in Δη and Δϕ) and ΣETPb dependence. The resultant Δϕ correlation is approximately symmetric about π/2, and is consistent with a dominant cos⁡2Δϕ modulation for all ΣETPb ranges and particle pT

Knowledge of modifiable risk factors of heart disease among patients with acute myocardial infarction in Karachi, Pakistan: a cross sectional study

BACKGROUND: Knowledge is an important pre-requisite for implementing both primary as well as secondary preventive strategies for cardiovascular disease (CVD). There are no estimates of the level of knowledge of risk factor of heart disease in patients with CVD. We estimated the level of knowledge of modifiable risk factors and determined the factors associated with good level of knowledge among patients presenting with their first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a tertiary care hospital in Karachi, Pakistan. METHODS: A hospital based cross-sectional study was conducted at the National Institute of Cardiovascular Disease, a major tertiary care hospital in Karachi Pakistan. Patients admitted with their first AMI were eligible to participate. Standard questionnaire was used to interview 720 subjects. Knowledge of four modifiable risk factors of heart disease: fatty food consumption, smoking, obesity and exercise were assessed. The participants knowing three out of four risk factors were regarded as having a good level of knowledge. A multiple logistic regression model was constructed to identify the determinants of good level of knowledge. RESULTS: The mean age (SD) was 54 (11.66) years. A mere 42% of our study population had a good level of knowledge. In multiple logistic regression analysis, independent predictors of "good" level of knowledge were (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]) more than ten years of schooling were 2.5 [1.30, 4.80] (verses no schooling at all) and nuclear family system (verses extended family system) 2.54 [1.65, 3.89]. In addition, Sindhi ethnicity OR [3.03], higher level of exercise OR [2.76] and non user of tobacco OR [2.53] were also predictors of good level of knowledge. CONCLUSION: Our findings highlight the lack of good level of knowledge of modifiable risk factors for heart disease among subjects admitted with AMI in Pakistan. There is urgent need for aggressive and targeted educational strategies in the Pakistani population