From Prediction to Action: Critical Role of Performance Estimation for Machine-Learning-Driven Materials Discovery

Materials discovery driven by statistical property models is an iterative decision process, during which an initial data collection is extended with new data proposed by a model-informed acquisition function--with the goal to maximize a certain "reward" over time, such as the maximum property value discovered so far. While the materials science community achieved much progress in developing property models that predict well on average with respect to the training distribution, this form of in-distribution performance measurement is not directly coupled with the discovery reward. This is because an iterative discovery process has a shifting reward distribution that is over-proportionally determined by the model performance for exceptional materials. We demonstrate this problem using the example of bulk modulus maximization among double perovskite oxides. We find that the in-distribution predictive performance suggests random forests as superior to Gaussian process regression, while the results are inverse in terms of the discovery rewards. We argue that the lack of proper performance estimation methods from pre-computed data collections is a fundamental problem for improving data-driven materials discovery, and we propose a novel such estimator that, in contrast to na\"ive reward estimation, successfully predicts Gaussian processes with the "expected improvement" acquisition function as the best out of four options in our demonstrational study for double perovskites. Importantly, it does so without requiring the over thousand ab initio computations that were needed to confirm this prediction.Comment: Simplified notatio

Identification of Common Genetic Variants Influencing Spontaneous Dizygotic Twinning and Female Fertility.

Spontaneous dizygotic (DZ) twinning occurs in 1%-4% of women, with familial clustering and unknown physiological pathways and genetic origin. DZ twinning might index increased fertility and has distinct health implications for mother and child. We performed a GWAS in 1,980 mothers of spontaneous DZ twins and 12,953 control subjects. Findings were replicated in a large Icelandic cohort and tested for association across a broad range of fertility traits in women. Two SNPs were identified (rs11031006 near FSHB, p = 1.54 × 10(-9), and rs17293443 in SMAD3, p = 1.57 × 10(-8)) and replicated (p = 3 × 10(-3) and p = 1.44 × 10(-4), respectively). Based on ∼90,000 births in Iceland, the risk of a mother delivering twins increased by 18% for each copy of allele rs11031006-G and 9% for rs17293443-C. A higher polygenic risk score (PRS) for DZ twinning, calculated based on the results of the DZ twinning GWAS, was significantly associated with DZ twinning in Iceland (p = 0.001). A higher PRS was also associated with having children (p = 0.01), greater lifetime parity (p = 0.03), and earlier age at first child (p = 0.02). Allele rs11031006-G was associated with higher serum FSH levels, earlier age at menarche, earlier age at first child, higher lifetime parity, lower PCOS risk, and earlier age at menopause. Conversely, rs17293443-C was associated with later age at last child. We identified robust genetic risk variants for DZ twinning: one near FSHB and a second within SMAD3, the product of which plays an important role in gonadal responsiveness to FSH. These loci contribute to crucial aspects of reproductive capacity and health.Support for the Netherlands Twin Register was obtained from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) and The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW) grants, 904-61-193,480-04-004, 400-05-717, Addiction-31160008, 911-09-032, Biobanking and Biomolecular Resources Research Infrastructure (BBMRI –NL, 184.021.007); Royal Netherlands Academy of Science Professor Award (PAH/6635) to DIB; European Research Council (ERC-230374 and ERC-284167); Rutgers University Cell and DNA Repository (NIMH U24 MH068457-06), the Avera Institute, Sioux Falls, South Dakota (USA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH R01 HD042157-01A1). Part of the genotyping was funded by the Genetic Association Information Network (GAIN) of the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health and Grand Opportunity grants 1RC2 MH089951). We acknowledge support from VU Amsterdam and the Institute for Health and Care Research (EMGO+). The Berghofer Medical Research Institute (QIMR) study was supported by grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (241944, 339462, 389927, 389875, 389891, 389892, 389938, 443036, 442915, 442981, 496610, 496739, 552485, 552498, 1050208, 1075175). Dale R. Nyholt was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship (FT0991022), NHMRC Research Fellowship (APP0613674) Schemes and by the Visiting Professors Programme (VPP) of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences (KNAW). Allan F. McRae was supported by an NRMRC Career Development Fellowship (APP1083656). Grant W. Montgomery was supported by NIH grant (HD042157, a collaborative study of the genetics of DZ twinning) and NHMRC Fellowship (GNT1078399). The Minnesota Center for Twin and Family Research (MCTFR) was supported in part by USPHS Grants from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (AA09367 and AA11886), and the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA05147, DA13240, and DA024417). We would like to thank also 23andMe's consented research participants for contributing data on age at menarche for the FSHB gene locus and the Twinning Gwas Consortium (TGC). Co-authors from: Finland (Anu Loukola, Juho Wedenoja, Emmi Tikkanen, Beenish Qaiser), Sweden (Nancy Pedersen, Andrea Ganna), United kingdom King's College London (Department of Twin Research & Genetic Epidemiology: Pirro Hysi, Massimo Mangino), Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience, Medical Research Council Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre (Eva Krapohl, Andrew McMillan).This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ajhg.2016.03.00

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Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised

Roadmap on data-centric materials science

Science is and always has been based on data, but the terms ‘data-centric’ and the ‘4th paradigm’ of materials research indicate a radical change in how information is retrieved, handled and research is performed. It signifies a transformative shift towards managing vast data collections, digital repositories, and innovative data analytics methods. The integration of artificial intelligence and its subset machine learning, has become pivotal in addressing all these challenges. This Roadmap on Data-Centric Materials Science explores fundamental concepts and methodologies, illustrating diverse applications in electronic-structure theory, soft matter theory, microstructure research, and experimental techniques like photoemission, atom probe tomography, and electron microscopy. While the roadmap delves into specific areas within the broad interdisciplinary field of materials science, the provided examples elucidate key concepts applicable to a wider range of topics. The discussed instances offer insights into addressing the multifaceted challenges encountered in contemporary materials research

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. METHODS: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised

Iron-based subsurface arsenic removal (SAR): Results of a long-term pilot-scale test in Vietnam

The principle of subsurface arsenic removal (SAR) from groundwater is based on oxidation and adsorption reactions by infiltrating oxygen into the anoxic aquifer and the immobilization of arsenic (As) onto freshly formed iron (Fe)-(hydr)oxides. In this study, a pilot-scale plant for SAR has been subject to long term testing in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Initial concentrations of Fe (8.4 ± 1.3 mg L−1) and As (81 ± 8 μg L−1) in the exploited groundwater were successfully lowered to below the WHO guideline value limits for drinking water of 0.3 mg L−1 and 10 μg L−1, respectively. Adsorption and co-precipitation of As with Fe-(hydr)oxides could be identified as the principal mechanism responsible for the As removal from groundwater, demonstrating the feasibility of SAR as a low-cost and zero-waste solution over a period of two years. However, naturally occurring geochemical reducing conditions and high ammonium levels in the groundwater delayed the removal of manganese (Mn). An additional post-treatment filtration for Mn-removal was temporarily used to comply with the Vietnamese drinking water standard until a Mn-mitigation was achieved by the SAR process. In contrast to most As-remediation technologies, SAR appears to be a long-term, sustainable treatment option with the salient advantage of negligible production of toxic waste, which with ex-situ processes require additionally management costs