Dynamically and Statistically Downscaled Seasonal Simulations of Maximum Surface Air Temperature Over the Southeastern United States

Coarsely resolved surface air temperature (2 m height) seasonal integrations from the Florida State University/Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies Global Spectral Model (FSU/COAPS GSM) (~1.8º lon.-lat. (T63)) for the period of 1994 to 2002 (March through September each year) are downscaled to a fine spatial scale of ~20 km. Dynamical and statistical downscaling methods are applied for the southeastern United States region, covering Florida, Georgia, and Alabama. Dynamical downscaling is conducted by running the FSU/COAPS Nested Regional Spectral Model (NRSM), which is nested into the domain of the FSU/COAPS GSM. We additionally present a new statistical downscaling method. The rationale for the statistical approach is that clearer separation of prominent climate signals (e.g., seasonal cycle, intraseasonal, or interannual oscillations) in observation and GSM, respectively, over the training period can facilitate the identification of the statistical relationship in climate variability between two data sets. Cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function (CSEOF) analysis and multiple regressions are trained with those data sets to extract their statistical relationship, which eventually leads to better prediction of regional climate from the large-scale simulations. Downscaled temperatures are compared with the FSU/COAPS GSM fields and observations. Downscaled seasonal anomalies exhibit strong agreement with observations and a reduction in bias relative to the direct GSM simulations. Interannual temperature change is also reasonably simulated at local grid points. A series of evaluations including mean absolute errors, anomaly correlations, frequency of extreme events, and categorical predictability reveal that both downscaling techniques can be reliably used for numerous seasonal climate applications

Digitally recorded and remotely classified lung auscultation compared with conventional stethoscope classifications among children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of pneumonia remains challenging. Digitally recorded and remote human classified lung sounds may offer benefits beyond conventional auscultation, but it is unclear whether classifications differ between the two approaches. We evaluated concordance between digital and conventional auscultation. METHODS: We collected digitally recorded lung sounds, conventional auscultation classifications and clinical measures and samples from children with pneumonia (cases) in low-income and middle-income countries. Physicians remotely classified recordings as crackles, wheeze or uninterpretable. Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was evaluated among 383 pneumonia cases with concurrently (within 2 hours) collected conventional and digital auscultation classifications using prevalence-adjusted bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). Using an expanded set of 737 cases that also incorporated the non-concurrently collected assessments, we evaluated whether associations between auscultation classifications and clinical or aetiological findings differed between conventional or digital auscultation using χ2 tests and logistic regression adjusted for age, sex and site. RESULTS: Conventional and digital auscultation concordance was moderate for classifying crackles and/or wheeze versus neither crackles nor wheeze (PABAK=0.50), and fair for crackles-only versus not crackles-only (PABAK=0.30) and any wheeze versus no wheeze (PABAK=0.27). Crackles were more common on conventional auscultation, whereas wheeze was more frequent on digital auscultation. Compared with neither crackles nor wheeze, crackles-only on both conventional and digital auscultation was associated with abnormal chest radiographs (adjusted OR (aOR)=1.53, 95% CI 0.99 to 2.36; aOR=2.09, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.68, respectively); any wheeze was inversely associated with C-reactive protein >40 mg/L using conventional auscultation (aOR=0.50, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.92) and with very severe pneumonia using digital auscultation (aOR=0.67, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.97). Crackles-only on digital auscultation was associated with mortality compared with any wheeze (aOR=2.70, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.25). CONCLUSIONS: Conventional auscultation and remotely-classified digital auscultation displayed moderate concordance for presence/absence of wheeze and crackles among cases. Conventional and digital auscultation may provide different classification patterns, but wheeze was associated with decreased clinical severity on both

Epidemiology of the Rhinovirus (RV) in African and Southeast Asian Children: A Case-Control Pneumonia Etiology Study.

Rhinovirus (RV) is commonly detected in asymptomatic children; hence, its pathogenicity during childhood pneumonia remains controversial. We evaluated RV epidemiology in HIV-uninfected children hospitalized with clinical pneumonia and among community controls. PERCH was a case-control study that enrolled children (1-59 months) hospitalized with severe and very severe pneumonia per World Health Organization clinical criteria and age-frequency-matched community controls in seven countries. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs were collected for all participants, combined, and tested for RV and 18 other respiratory viruses using the Fast Track multiplex real-time PCR assay. RV detection was more common among cases (24%) than controls (21%) (aOR = 1.5, 95%CI:1.3-1.6). This association was driven by the children aged 12-59 months, where 28% of cases vs. 18% of controls were RV-positive (aOR = 2.1, 95%CI:1.8-2.5). Wheezing was 1.8-fold (aOR 95%CI:1.4-2.2) more prevalent among pneumonia cases who were RV-positive vs. RV-negative. Of the RV-positive cases, 13% had a higher probability (>75%) that RV was the cause of their pneumonia based on the PERCH integrated etiology analysis; 99% of these cases occurred in children over 12 months in Bangladesh. RV was commonly identified in both cases and controls and was significantly associated with severe pneumonia status among children over 12 months of age, particularly those in Bangladesh. RV-positive pneumonia was associated with wheezing

Digital auscultation in PERCH: Associations with chest radiography and pneumonia mortality in children.

BACKGROUND: Whether digitally recorded lung sounds are associated with radiographic pneumonia or clinical outcomes among children in low-income and middle-income countries is unknown. We sought to address these knowledge gaps. METHODS: We enrolled 1 to 59monthold children hospitalized with pneumonia at eight African and Asian Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health sites in six countries, recorded digital stethoscope lung sounds, obtained chest radiographs, and collected clinical outcomes. Recordings were processed and classified into binary categories positive or negative for adventitial lung sounds. Listening and reading panels classified recordings and radiographs. Recording classification associations with chest radiographs with World Health Organization (WHO)-defined primary endpoint pneumonia (radiographic pneumonia) or mortality were evaluated. We also examined case fatality among risk strata. RESULTS: Among children without WHO danger signs, wheezing (without crackles) had a lower adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for radiographic pneumonia (0.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.15, 0.82), compared to children with normal recordings. Neither crackle only (no wheeze) (aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 0.91, 4.96) or any wheeze (with or without crackle) (aOR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.34, 1.15) were associated with radiographic pneumonia. Among children with WHO danger signs no lung recording classification was independently associated with radiographic pneumonia, although trends toward greater odds of radiographic pneumonia were observed among children classified with crackle only (no wheeze) or any wheeze (with or without crackle). Among children without WHO danger signs, those with recorded wheezing had a lower case fatality than those without wheezing (3.8% vs. 9.1%, p = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Among lower risk children without WHO danger signs digitally recorded wheezing is associated with a lower odds for radiographic pneumonia and with lower mortality. Although further research is needed, these data indicate that with further development digital auscultation may eventually contribute to child pneumonia care

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

Search for stop and higgsino production using diphoton Higgs boson decays

Results are presented of a search for a "natural" supersymmetry scenario with gauge mediated symmetry breaking. It is assumed that only the supersymmetric partners of the top-quark (stop) and the Higgs boson (higgsino) are accessible. Events are examined in which there are two photons forming a Higgs boson candidate, and at least two b-quark jets. In 19.7 inverse femtobarns of proton-proton collision data at sqrt(s) = 8 TeV, recorded in the CMS experiment, no evidence of a signal is found and lower limits at the 95% confidence level are set, excluding the stop mass below 360 to 410 GeV, depending on the higgsino mass

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe