Major growth in some business related uses of climate information

Uses of climate information have grown considerably in the past 15 years as a wide variety of weathersensitive businesses sought to deal effectively with their financial losses and manage risks associated with various weather and climate conditions. Availability of both long-term quality climate data and new technologies has facilitated development of climate-related products by private-sector atmospheric scientists and decision makers. Weather derivatives, now widely used in the energy sector, allow companies to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold, and, for a price paid to a provider, to obtain financial reparation if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather-risk models, which define the potential risks of severe-weather losses across a region where few historical insured loss data exist. Firms develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. Atmospheric scientists who want to participate in the development and use of these new risk-management products will need to broaden their educational experience and develop knowledge and skills in fields such as finance, geography, economics, statistics, and information technology

Lessons from the unusual impacts of an abnormal winter in the USA

Economic impacts from the near record warm and snow-free winter of 2001–2 in the United States were assessed to ascertain their dimensions and relevance to issues like climate prediction and climate change. Unusual impacts resulted and embraced numerous sectors (heating/energy use, construction, tourism, insurance, government, and retail sales). Many outcomes were gains/benefits totalling $19.6 billion, with losses of$8.2 billion. Some economists identified the sizable positive impacts as a factor in the nation’s recovery from an on-going recession stemming from the terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001. Understanding the impacts of such a winter reveals how climate predictions of such conditions could have great utility in minimising the losses and maximising the gains. The results also have relevance to the global warming issue since most climate models project future average winter temperature and snowfall conditions in the United States to be similar to those experienced in 2001–2

Climatological Assessment of Urban Effects on Precipitation: Final Report Part I

published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewedOpe

Radar Operations and Data Collection in Support of Meteorological Research in Northeastern Illinois

published or submitted for publicationis peer reviewedOpe

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Snowstorms in the Contiguous United States

A climatological analysis of snowstorms across the contiguous United States, based on data from 1222 weather stations with data during 1901–2001, defined the spatial and temporal features. The average annual incidence of events creating 15.2 cm or more in 1 or 2 days, which are termed as snowstorms, exhibits great spatial variability. The pattern is latitudinal across most of the eastern half of the United States, averaging 0.1 storm (1 storm per 10 years) in the Deep South, increasing to 2 storms along the Canadian border. This pattern is interrupted by higher averages downwind of the Great Lakes and in the Appalachian Mountains. In the western third of the United States where snow falls, lower-elevation sites average 0.1–2 storms per year, but averages are much higher in the Cascade Range and Rocky Mountains, where 5–30 storms occur per year. Most areas of the United States have had years without snowstorms, but the annual minima are 1 or more storms in high-elevation areas of the West and Northeast. The pattern of annual maxima of storms is similar to the average pattern. The temporal distribution of snowstorms exhibited wide fluctuations during 1901–2000, with downward 100-yr trends in the lower Midwest, South, and West Coast. Upward trends occurred in the upper Midwest, East, and Northeast, and the national trend for 1901–2000 was upward, corresponding to trends in strong cyclonic activity. The peak periods of storm activity in the United States occurred during 1911–20 and 1971–80, and the lowest frequency was in 1931–40. Snowstorms first occur in September in the Rockies, in October in the high plains, in November across most of the United States, and in December in the Deep South. The month with the season’s last storms is December in the South and then shifts northward, with April the last month of snowstorms across most of the United States. Storms occur as late as May and June in the Rockies and Cascades. Snowstorms are most frequent in December downwind of the Great Lakes, with the peak of activity in January for most other areas of the United States

Economic impacts and analysis methods of extreme precipitation estimates for eastern Colorado

1986 Summer.Includes bibliographic references.Dams are designed to store water and to insure human safety and as such they must withstand, in their lifetimes, any extreme precipitation event in their drainage basin. Correct estimation of this event is critical because on one hand it must provide an adequate level of safety to not occur, but it must not be any greater than needed since the high costs of dam construction and modifications are directly related to the magnitude of the estimated extreme event. Most frequently the extreme precipitation event is labeled as the Probable Maximum Precipitation, or PMP. National and state concerns over the adequacy of existing dams in the United States as well as increased development of the Front Range led to a federal reassessment and redefinition of new PMP values issued for Colorado in 1984. The study area included the region from the Continental Divide to the 103rd Meridian. Study of these new PMP values and their potential economic impacts in Colorado reveals that an enormous cost will result in Colorado. Techniques for estimating cost of modifications for spillways were developed. Among 162 high risk dams, the estimated total cost for modification was approximately $184 million. The economic value of this precipitation estimate is$9.45 million per inch change of rainfall in this limited study area. In one elevation region, 7000 to 9000 feet, the cost is approximately $15.76 million per inch change of rainfall. Regional cost analyses revealed the South Platte River Division had the greatest costs. Inherent limitations in the PMP procedure and the cost of spillway modifications have made evaluating other alternatives necessary. Special aspects of estimates for extreme precipitation, such as snowmelt runoff versus extreme precipitation events and climate variations were examined. Four methods for estimating extreme precipitation events were evaluated; the traditional PMP, the paleogeological, the cloud/mesoscale dynamic model, and the statistical approaches. A collection of approaches were recommended for Colorado dam design in three elevation regions: the plains, the foothills, and the mountains

Investigations of purposeful and inadvertent weather and climate modification in Illinois

"November 1994.""Annual Report June 1993-May 1994.""A report to the Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois pursuant to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Award No. NA47RA0225.

Hydro-meteorological responses to tropical system precipitation in Illinois

This study sought to characterize the impact of tropical system precipitation on streamflow values measured in nine Illinois watersheds and determine whether a predictive model based on antecedent and expected rainfall conditions could be developed. Unlike smaller-scale thunderstorm complexes which are difficult to forecast beyond 24 hours, there is much greater forecast lead time associated with tropical systems. The differences in spatial and temporal scales associated with two types of heavy rain producing storms suggests that hydro-meteorologists have a better opportunity to develop timely regional precipitation and streamflow forecasts as a tropical system approaches Illinois. During a 100-year period (1913-2012) 26 tropical systems were found to have produced an average of an inch or more precipitation within a 24-hour window (i.e., event) in one or more of Illinois’ nine climate divisions. Those climate divisions impacted by an event experienced a significant increase in monthly soil moisture levels as measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). When pre- versus post-tropical system streamflow (ST) values were compared for the non-event watersheds an increase in ST of less than 50% occurred, while ST changes in watersheds that experienced an event increased by more than 500%. Factors that influenced the magnitude of increase included pre-storm ST conditions (i.e., was ST below, near or above average prior to the event), timing of event (i.e., summer or fall), and total storm precipitation. The predictive ST model, where model output (e.g., post event ST estimates) could be integrated into decision support tools used by those impacted by flooding, was of limited use. Reasons for a lack of success were related to three primary issues, a small sample of events (i.e., 26) in the study, events occurring over a long period (100-years) when changes in land use and agricultural practices altered the surface hydrology (i.e., use of tiles, no-till agriculture, expanding crops in risky environments, etc.), and different surface characteristics (e.g., basin shape and size, soils, geomorphology, etc.) among the nine watersheds. Despite the issues that add complexity to the rainfall to ST relationships over time, those who are tasked with forecasting tropical storm precipitation and related ST values have greater knowledge of how ST values increase and can provide more lead time to regional decision makers in affected watersheds.U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological SurveyOpe

Annual report to National Science Foundation for Hail Evaluation Techniques Project

National Science Foundation GA-482Ope