The challenges of monitoring national climate policy: learning lessons from the EU

One of the most central and novel features of the new climate governance architecture emerging from the 2015 Paris Agreement is the transparency framework committing countries to provide, inter alia, regular progress reports on national pledges to address climate change. Many countries will rely on public policies to turn their pledges into action. This article focuses on the EU’s experience with monitoring national climate policies in order to understand the challenges that are likely to arise as the Paris Agreement is implemented around the world. To do so, the research employs – for the first time – comparative empirical data submitted by states to the EU’s monitoring system. Our findings reveal how the EU’s predominantly technical interpretation of four international reporting quality criteria – an approach borrowed from reporting on GHG fluxes – has constrained knowledge production and stymied debate on the performance of individual climate policies. Key obstacles to more in-depth reporting include not only political concerns over reporting burdens and costs, but also struggles over who determines the nature of climate policy monitoring, the perceived usefulness of reporting information, and the political control that policy knowledge inevitably generates. Given the post-Paris drive to achieve greater transparency, the EU’s experience offers a sobering reminder of the political and technical challenges associated with climate policy monitoring, challenges that are likely to bedevil the Paris Agreement for decades to come

Using the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer to characterise temporal and spatial trends in water temperature of large European lakes

Lakes are major repositories of biodiversity, provide multiple ecosystem services and are widely recognised as key indicators of environmental change. However, studies of lake response to drivers of change at a pan-European scale are exceptionally rare. The need for such studies has been given renewed impetus by concerns over environmental change and because of international policies, such as the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), which impose legal obligations to monitor the condition of European lakes towards sustainable systems with good ecological status. This has highlighted the need for methods that can be widely applied across large spatial and temporal scales and produce comparable results. Remote sensing promises much in terms of information provision, but the spatial transferability and temporal repeatability of methods and relationships observed at individual or regional case studies remains unproven at the continental scale. This study demonstrates that NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) thermal data are capable of producing highly accurate (R2 &gt; 0.9) lake surface temperature (LST) estimates in lakes with variable hydromorphological characteristics and contrasting thermal regimes. Validation of the approach using archived AVHRR thermal data for Lake Geneva produced observations that were consistent with field data for equivalent time periods. This approach provides the basis for generalizing temporal and spatial trends in European lake surface temperature over several decades and confirms the potential of the full 30 year NOAA AVHRR archive to can provide AVHRR-derived LST estimates to help inform European policies on lake water quality.</p

Testing multiple pathways for impacts of the non-native Black-headed Weaver Ploceus melanocephalus on native birds in Iberia in the early phase of invasion

Not all non-native species have strong negative impacts on native species. It is desirable to assess whether a non-native species will have a negative impact at an early stage in the invasion process, when management options such as eradication are still available. Although it may be difficult to detect early impacts of non-native species, it is necessary to ensure that management decisions can be based on case-specific scientific evidence. We assess the impacts of a non-native bird, the Black-headed Weaver Ploceus melanocephalus, at an early stage in its invasion of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this we identify potential pathways by which competition for shared resources by Black-headed Weavers could lead to population declines in two ecologically similar native species, and generate hypotheses to test for evidence of competition along these pathways. Black-headed Weavers could potentially impact native species by displacing them from nesting habitat, or by reducing habitat quality. We found no evidence for either potential competition pathway, suggesting that Black-headed Weavers do not currently compete with the two native species. However, it is possible that mechanisms that currently allow coexistence may not operate once Black-headed Weavers reach higher population densities or different habitats

How big is big enough? Toward a sustainable future by examining alternatives to the conventional economic growth paradigm

This study addresses how the sustainability crisis may be overcome by using alternatives to the conventional economic growth paradigm. Based on a literature review, the paper identifies and discusses three alternatives, namely negative, zero and positive economic growth. These alternatives are compared from a feasibility and policy perspective in relation to the transition toward sustainable development. The three alternatives are associated with very far‐reaching sets of policies that have different focal points with regard to how the paradigm shift from the conventional growth paradigm can be realized. All these alternatives, however, challenge the effectiveness of market forces. The shortcomings of the alternatives (resistance to voluntary transition with negative or zero growth, no proper consideration of the rebound effect for positive growth) hinder the transition and must be further addressed by policy‐makers in public and private sectors, as well as by civil society

Heating with biomass in the United Kingdom: Lessons from New Zealand

In this study we review the current status of residential solid fuel (RSF) use in the UK and compare it with New Zealand, which has had severe wintertime air quality issues for many years that is directly attributable to domestic wood burning in heating stoves. Results showed that RSF contributed to more than 40 μg m−3 PM10 and 10 μg m−3 BC in some suburban locations of New Zealand in 2006, with significant air quality and climate impacts. Models predict RSF consumption in New Zealand to decrease slightly from 7 PJ to 6 PJ between 1990 and 2030, whereas consumption in the UK increases by a factor of 14. Emissions are highest from heating stoves and fireplaces, and their calculated contribution to radiative forcing in the UK increases by 23% between 2010 and 2030, with black carbon accounting for more than three quarters of the total warming effect. By 2030, the residential sector accounts for 44% of total BC emissions in the UK and far exceeds emissions from the traffic sector. Finally, a unique bottom-up emissions inventory was produced for both countries using the latest national survey and census data for the year 2013/14. Fuel- and technology-specific emissions factors were compared between multiple inventories including GAINS, the IPCC, the EMEP/EEA and the NAEI. In the UK, it was found that wood consumption in stoves was within 30% of the GAINS inventory, but consumption in fireplaces was substantially higher and fossil fuel consumption is more than twice the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 2–3 higher for biomass and 2–6 higher for coal. In New Zealand, coal and lignite consumption in stoves is within 24% of the GAINS inventory estimate, but wood consumption is more than 7 times the GAINS estimate. As a result, emissions were generally a factor of 1–2 higher for coal and several times higher for wood. The results of this study indicate that emissions from residential heating stoves and fireplaces may be underestimated in climate models. Emissions are increasing rapidly in the UK which may result in severe wintertime air quality reductions, as seen in New Zealand, and contribute to climate warming unless controls are implemented such as the Ecodesign emissions limits

Is an ecosystem services-based approach developed for setting specific protection goals for plant protection products applicable to other chemicals?

Clearly defined protection goals specifying what to protect, where and when, are required for designing scientifically sound risk assessments and effective risk management of chemicals. Environmental protection goals specified in EU legislation are defined in general terms, resulting in uncertainty in how to achieve them. In 2010, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) published a framework to identify more specific protection goals based on ecosystem services potentially affected by plant protection products. But how applicable is this framework to chemicals with different emission scenarios and receptor ecosystems? Four case studies used to address this question were: (i) oil refinery waste water exposure in estuarine environments; (ii) oil dispersant exposure in aquatic environments; (iii) down the drain chemicals exposure in a wide range of ecosystems (terrestrial and aquatic); (iv) persistent organic pollutant exposure in remote (pristine) Arctic environments. A four-step process was followed to identify ecosystems and services potentially impacted by chemical emissions and to define specific protection goals. Case studies demonstrated that, in principle, the ecosystem services concept and the EFSA framework can be applied to derive specific protection goals for a broad range of chemical exposure scenarios. By identifying key habitats and ecosystem services of concern, the approach offers the potential for greater spatial and temporal resolution, together with increased environmental relevance, in chemical risk assessments. With modifications including improved clarity on terminology/definitions and further development/refinement of the key concepts, we believe the principles of the EFSA framework could provide a methodical approach to the identification and prioritization of ecosystems, ecosystem services and the service providing units that are most at risk from chemical exposure

Evaluating and expanding the European Union's protected-area network toward potential post-2020 coverage targets

The Convention on Biological Diversity's (CBD) strategic plan will expire in 2020, but biodiversity loss is ongoing. Scientists call for more ambitious targets in the next agreement. The nature-needs-half movement, for example, has advocated conserving half of Earth to solve the biodiversity crisis, which has been translated to protecting 50 of each ecoregion. We evaluated current protection levels of ecoregions in the territory of one of the CBD's signatories, the European Union (EU). We also explored the possible enlargement of the Natura 2000 network to implement 30 or 50 ecoregion coverage in the EU member states’ protected area (PA) network. Based on the most recent land-use data, we examined whether ecoregions have enough natural area left to reach such high coverage targets. We used a spatially explicit mixed integer programing model to estimate the least-cost expansion of the PA network based on 3 scenarios that put different emphasis on total conservation cost, ecological representation of ecosystems, or emphasize an equal share of the burden among member states. To realize 30 and 50 ecoregion coverage, the EU would need to add 6.6 and 24.2, respectively, of its terrestrial area to its PA network. For all 3 scenarios, the EU would need to designate most recommended new PAs in seminatural forests and other semi- or natural ecosystems. Because 15 ecoregions did not have enough natural area left to implement the ecoregion-coverage targets, some member states would also need to establish new PAs on productive land, allocating the largest share to arable land. Thirty percent ecoregion coverage was met by protecting remaining natural areas in all ecoregions except 3, where productive land would also need to be included. Our results support discussions of higher ecoregions protection targets for post-2020 biodiversity frameworks. © 2020 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology

City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future

The necessity of Urban Water Cycle Services (UWCS) adapting to future stresses calls for changes that take sustainability into account. Megatrends (e.g. population growth, water scarcity, pollution and climate change) pose urgent water challenges in cities. In a previous paper, a set of indicators, i.e., the City Blueprint has been developed to assess the sustainability ofUWCS (Van Leeuwen et al.,Wat Resour Manage 26:2177¿2197, 2012). In this paper this approach has been applied in 9 cities and regions in Europe (Amsterdam, Algarve, Athens, Bucharest, Hamburg, Reggio Emilia, Rotterdam, Oslo and Cities of Scotland) and in 2 African cities in Angola (Kilamba Kiaxi) and Tanzania (Dar es Salaam). The assessments showed that cities vary considerably with regard to the sustainability of theUWCS. This is also captured in the Blue City Index (BCI), the arithmetic mean of 24 indicators comprising the City Blueprint (Van Leeuwen et al., Wat Resour Manage 26:2177¿2197, 2012). Theoretically, the BCI has a minimum score of 0 and a maximum score of 10. The actual BCIs in the 11 cities studied varied from 3.31 (Kilamba Kiaxi) to 7.72 (Hamburg). The BCI was positively correlated with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person, the ambitions of the local authorities regarding the sustainability of the UWCS, the voluntary participation index (VPI) and all governance indicators according to the World Bank. The study demonstrated that the variability in sustainability among the UWCS of cities offers great opportunities for short-term and long-term improvements, provided that cities share their best practices.Van Leeuwen, CJ. (2013). City Blueprints: Baseline Assessments of Sustainable Water Management in 11 Cities of the Future. Water resources management. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-013-0462-5Bai X (2007) Industrial ecology and the global impacts of cities. 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