Impact of Atmosphere and Land Surface Initial Conditions on Seasonal Forecasts of Global Surface Temperature

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Lateglacial and Holocene climate and environmental change in the northeastern Mediterranean region: Diatom evidence from Lake Dojran (Republic of Macedonia/Greece)

The juncture between the west-east and north-south contrasting Holocene climatic domains across the Mediterranean is complex and poorly understood. Diatom analysis of Lake Dojran (Republic of Macedonia/Greece) provides a new insight into lake levels and trophic status during the Lateglacial and Holocene periods in the northeastern Mediterranean. Following a very shallow or even desiccated state at the core base at ca. 12,500 cal yr BP, indicated by sedimentological and hydro-acoustic data, diatoms indicate lake infilling, from a shallow state with abundant benthos to a plankton-dominated relatively high lake level and eutrophic state thereafter. Diatom-inferred shallowing between ca. 12,400 - 12,000 cal yr BP and a very low lake level and eutrophic, oligosaline state between ca. 12,000 - 11,500 cal yr BP provide strong evidence for Younger Dryas aridity. The earliest Holocene (ca. 11,500 - 10,700 cal yr BP) was characterised by a high lake level, followed by a lake-level reduction and increased trophic level between ca. 10,700-8,500 cal yr BP. The lake was relatively deep and exhibited peak Holocene trophic level between ca. 8,500-3,000 cal yr BP, becoming shallow thereafter. The diatom data provide more robust evidence and strengthen previous lake-level interpretation based on sedimentological and geochemical data during the earliest, mid and late Holocene, and also clarify previous uncertainty in interpretation of Lateglacial and early-Holocene lake-level change. Our results are also important in disentangling regional climate effects from local catchment dynamics during the Holocene, and to this end we exploit extant regional palynological evidence for vegetation change in the highlands and lowlands. The importance of seasonality in driving Holocene climate change is assessed by reference to the summer and winter latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG) model of Davis and Brewer (2009). We suggest that increased precipitation drove the high lake level during the earliest Holocene. The early- Holocene low lake level and relatively high trophic state may result climatically from high seasonality of precipitation and locally from limited, nutrient-rich catchment runoff. We argue that the mid- Holocene relatively deep and eutrophic state was driven mainly by local vegetation succession and associated changes in catchment processes, rather than showing a close relationship to climate change. The late-Holocene shallow state may have been influenced by a temperature-induced increase in evaporative concentration, but was coupled with clear evidence for intensified human impact. This study improves understanding of Lateglacial and Holocene climate change in the northeastern Mediterranean, suggests the important role of the LTG on moisture availability during the Holocene, and clarifies the influence of catchment processes on palaeohydrology

Coralline Algae in a Changing Mediterranean Sea: How Can We Predict Their Future, if We Do Not Know Their Present?

In this review we assess the state of knowledge for the coralline algae of the Mediterranean Sea, a group of calcareous seaweeds imperfectly known and considered highly vulnerable to long-term climate change. Corallines have occurred in the Mediterranean area for ∼140 My and are well-represented in the subsequent fossil record; for some species currently common the fossil documentation dates back to the Oligocene, with a major role in the sedimentary record of some areas. Some Mediterranean corallines are key ecosystem engineers that produce or consolidate biogenic habitats (e.g., coralligenous concretions, Lithophyllum byssoides rims, rims of articulated corallines, maerl/rhodolith beds). Although bioconstructions built by corallines exist virtually in every sea, in the Mediterranean they reach a particularly high spatial and bathymetric extent (coralligenous concretions alone are estimated to exceed 2,700 km2 in surface). Overall, composition, dynamics and responses to human disturbances of coralline-dominated communities have been well-studied; except for a few species, however, the biology of Mediterranean corallines is poorly known. In terms of diversity, 60 species of corallines are currently reported from the Mediterranean. This number, however, is based on morphological assessments and recent studies incorporating molecular data suggest that the correct estimate is probably much higher. The responses of Mediterranean corallines to climate change have been the subject of several recent studies that documented their tolerance/sensitivity to elevated temperatures and pCO2. These investigations have focused on a few species and should be extended to a wider taxonomic set

Inversing the natural hydrogen bonding rule to selectively amplify GC-rich ADAR-edited RNAs

DNA complementarity is expressed by way of three hydrogen bonds for a G:C base pair and two for A:T. As a result, careful control of the denaturation temperature of PCR allows selective amplification of AT-rich alleles. Yet for the same reason, the converse is not possible, selective amplification of GC-rich alleles. Inosine (I) hydrogen bonds to cytosine by two hydrogen bonds while diaminopurine (D) forms three hydrogen bonds with thymine. By substituting dATP by dDTP and dGTP by dITP in a PCR reaction, DNA is obtained in which the natural hydrogen bonding rule is inversed. When PCR is performed at limiting denaturation temperatures, it is possible to recover GC-rich viral genomes and inverted Alu elements embedded in cellular mRNAs resulting from editing by dsRNA dependent host cell adenosine deaminases. The editing of Alu elements in cellular mRNAs was strongly enhanced by type I interferon induction indicating a novel link mRNA metabolism and innate immunity

8000 years of North Atlantic storminess reconstructed from a Scottish peat record: implications for Holocene atmospheric circulation patterns in Western Europe

North Atlantic storminess can affect human settlements, infrastructure and transport links, all of which strongly impact local, national and global economies. An increase in storm frequency and intensity is predicted over the North-East Atlantic in the 21st century because of a northward shift in storm tracks and a persistently positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), driven by recent atmospheric warming. Although documentary records of North Atlantic storminess exist, these are generally limited to the last c. 1000 years. This paper presents a continuous high-resolution proxy record of storminess spanning the last 8000 years from a 6 m-long core taken from a peat bog in northern Scotland. Bromine concentrations in the peat, derived from sea spray, are used to reconstruct storm frequency and storm intensity, and mire surface wetness is used as an indicator of longer-term climate shifts. The results suggest a relationship between positive phases of the NAO and increased North Atlantic storminess. However, subtle differences between bromine concentrations and mire surface wetness suggest that high-intensity but perhaps less frequent periods of storminess are not necessarily associated with a wetter climate

Mediterranean bioconstructions along the Italian coast

Marine bioconstructions are biodiversity-rich, three-dimensional biogenic structures, regulating key ecological functions of benthic ecosystems worldwide. Tropical coral reefs are outstanding for their beauty, diversity and complexity, but analogous types of bioconstructions are also present in temperate seas. The main bioconstructions in the Mediterranean Sea are represented by coralligenous formations, vermetid reefs, deep-sea cold-water corals, Lithophyllum byssoides trottoirs, coral banks formed by the shallow-water corals Cladocora caespitosa or Astroides calycularis, and sabellariid or serpulid worm reefs. Bioconstructions change the morphological and chemicophysical features of primary substrates and create new habitats for a large variety of organisms, playing pivotal roles in ecosystem functioning. In spite of their importance, Mediterranean bioconstructions have not received the same attention that tropical coral reefs have, and the knowledge of their biology, ecology and distribution is still fragmentary. All existing data about the spatial distribution of Italian bioconstructions have been collected, together with information about their growth patterns, dynamics and connectivity. The degradation of these habitats as a consequence of anthropogenic pressures (pollution, organic enrichment, fishery, coastal development, direct physical disturbance), climate change and the spread of invasive species was also investigated. The study of bioconstructions requires a holistic approach leading to a better understanding of their ecology and the application of more insightful management and conservation measures at basin scale, within ecologically coherent units based on connectivity: the cells of ecosystem functioning