Dynamic instability in resonant tunneling

We show that an instability may be present in resonant tunneling through a quantum well in one, two and three dimensions, when the resonance lies near the emitter Fermi level. A simple semiclassical model which simulates the resonance and the projected density of states by a nonlinear conductor, the Coulomb barrier by a capacitance, and the time evolution by an iterated map, is used. The model reproduces the observed hysteresis in such devices, and exhibits a series of bifurcations leading to fast chaotic current fluctuations.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

A new approach to the ground state of quantum-Hall systems

I present variational solutions of the many-body Schr\"odinger equation for a two-dimensional electron system in strong magnetic fields, which have, at $\nu=1$, the energy about 46% lower than the energy of the Laughlin liquid. At $\nu=2/3$, I obtain the energy, about 29% lower than was reported so far.Comment: ReVTeX, 5 pages with 3 figures included; some formulas [eqs. (6)-(9)], one figure (fig 2), some new refs. and new results are adde

Plasmonic atoms and plasmonic molecules

The proposed paradigm of plasmonic atoms and plasmonic molecules allows one to describe and predict the strongly localized plasmonic oscillations in the clusters of nanoparticles and some other nanostructures in uniform way. Strongly localized plasmonic molecules near the contacting surfaces might become the fundamental elements (by analogy with Lego bricks) for a construction of fully integrated opto-electronic nanodevices of any complexity and scale of integration.Comment: 30 pages, 16 figure

Avaliação de biofertilizantes, extratos vegetais e diferentes substâncias alternativas no manejo de tripes em cebola em sistema orgânico.

Avaliou-se substâncias alternativas no manejo de tripes (Thrips tabaci Lind.), em cebola, cv, Crioula, no sistema orgânico. Os experimentos foram conduzidos na EPAGRI, Ituporanga (SC). Os períodos entre transplante e colheita foram de 11/09/1996 a 10/01/1997 e 13/08/1997 a 11/12/1997. O delineamento foi de blocos ao acaso com 8 tratamentos em 1996 e 12 tratamentos em 1997 e quatro repetições. Em 1996 os tratamentos incluíram o biofertilizante anaeróbico 50%, biofertilizante aeróbico 5%, sulfato de manganês 1%, extrato hidroalcoólico de própolis 0,2%, macerado de ervas (“fersoral”) 2% e 4%, extrato de fumo (Nicotiana tabacum) 2 L ha-1 + 1% detergente neutro, testemunha sem aplicação. Em 1997 os tratamentos incluíram o macerado de ervas (“fersoral”) 5% 10%, enxofre pó molhável 0,25% + extrato hidroalcoólico de própolis 0,2% + extrato de samambaia 3%, biofertilizante anaeróbico 50%, biofertilizante aeróbico 5%, extrato de losna (Artemisia verlotorum) 3%, extrato de timbó (Ateleia glazioviana) 0,5%, extrato de samambaia (Pteridium aquilinum) 10%, extrato de erva-de-santa-maria (Chenopodium ambrosioides) 10%, extrato de cinamomo (Melia azedarach) 10%,extrato de camomila (Matricaria chamomilla) 5%, testemunha sem aplicação. Para aplicação dos produtos empregou-se pulverizador de pressão constante a base de CO2. Os tratamentos não causaram redução significativa na incidência de tripes e aumentos significativos na produtividade

Estímulo no crescimento e na hidrólise de ATP em raízes de alface tratadas com humatos de vermicomposto: i - efeito da concentração.

O vermicomposto contém uma concentração elevada de substâncias húmicas e já é bem conhecido o efeito do seu uso sobre as propriedades do solo. No entanto,a ação direta das substâncias húmicas sobre o metabolismo das plantas é menos conhecida. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o uso de humatos extraídos de vermicomposto de esterco de curral com KOH 0,1 mol L-1 sobre o desenvolvimento e metabolismo de ATP em plântulas de alface. Após a germinação, plântulas de alface foram tratadas com os humatos em concentrações que variaram de 0 a 100 mg L-1 de C, durante quinze dias. Foram avaliados o crescimento da raiz e a atividade das bombas de H+ isoladas da fração microssomal do sistema radicular. Foi observado aumento na matéria fresca e seca do sistema radicular, bem como no número de sítios de mitose, raízes emergidas do eixo principal, na área e no comprimento radiculares, com o uso do humato na concentração de 25 mg L-1 de C. Também foi observado, nessa concentração, aumento significativo na hidrólise de ATP pelas bombas de H+, responsáveis pela geração de energia necessária à absorção de íons e pelo crescimento celular

Meta-análise de parâmetros genéticos relacionados ao consumo alimentar residual e a suas características componentes em bovinos

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar, por meio de meta-análise, a herdabilidade (h²) e as correlações genética (r g) e fenotípica (r f) do consumo alimentar residual (CAR), e das suas características componentes, em bovinos de 19 raças ou grupamentos genéticos. Foram utilizados 22 trabalhos científicos publicados entre 1963 e 2011, de oito países, o que totalizou 52.637 bovinos com idades que variaram de 28 dias até a idade de abate. As estimativas de CAR, consumo de matéria seca (CMS), ganho médio diário (GMD) e peso metabólico (PV0, 75) foram ponderadas pelo inverso da variância amostral. A variação da h² de cada característica entre os estudos foi analisada por quadrados mínimos ponderados. Os efeitos de sexo, país e raça foram significativos para h² de CAR e explicaram 67% da variação entre os estudos. Para CMS, os efeitos de país e raça foram significativos e explicaram 96% da variação. As estimativas combinadas de h² foram: 0, 255±0, 008, 0, 278±0, 012, 0, 321±0, 015 e 0, 397±0, 032 para CAR, CMS, GMD e PV0, 75, respectivamente. As estimativas combinadas de correlação genética e fenotípica foram baixas entre CAR e GMD e entre CAR e PV0, 75 (de -0, 021±0, 034 a 0, 025±0, 035), e de média magnitude entre CAR e CMS (0, 636±0, 035 a 0, 698±0, 041) e entre CMS, GMD e PV0, 75 (0, 441±0, 062 a 0, 688±0, 032). O CAR apresenta estimativa de herdabilidade menor que a de suas características componentes

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing