Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

‘Breathing Fire’: Impact of Prolonged Bushfire Smoke Exposure in People with Severe Asthma

Wildfires are increasing and cause health effects. The immediate and ongoing health impacts of prolonged wildfire smoke exposure in severe asthma are unknown. This longitudinal study examined the experiences and health impacts of prolonged wildfire (bushfire) smoke exposure in adults with severe asthma during the 2019/2020 Australian bushfire period. Participants from Eastern/Southern Australia who had previously enrolled in an asthma registry completed a questionnaire survey regarding symptoms, asthma attacks, quality of life and smoke exposure mitigation during the bushfires and in the months following exposure. Daily individualized exposure to bushfire particulate matter (PM2.5) was estimated by geolocation and validated modelling. Respondents (n = 240) had a median age of 63 years, 60% were female and 92% had severe asthma. They experienced prolonged intense PM2.5 exposure (mean PM2.5 32.5 μg/m3 on 55 bushfire days). Most (83%) of the participants experienced symptoms during the bushfire period, including: breathlessness (57%); wheeze/whistling chest (53%); and cough (50%). A total of 44% required oral corticosteroid treatment for an asthma attack and 65% reported reduced capacity to participate in usual activities. About half of the participants received information/advice regarding asthma management (45%) and smoke exposure minimization strategies (52%). Most of the participants stayed indoors (88%) and kept the windows/doors shut when inside (93%), but this did not clearly mitigate the symptoms. Following the bushfire period, 65% of the participants reported persistent asthma symptoms. Monoclonal antibody use for asthma was associated with a reduced risk of persistent symptoms. Intense and prolonged PM2.5 exposure during the 2019/2020 bushfires was associated with acute and persistent symptoms among people with severe asthma. There are opportunities to improve the exposure mitigation strategies and communicate these to people with severe asthma

Assessment of Asthma Control and Quality of Life among Asthmatic Patients Attending Armed Forces Referral and Teaching Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Background. The primary goal of asthma management is to achieve good asthma control. However, poor patient-physician communication, unavailability of appropriate medications, and lack of long-term goals have made asthma control difficult in developing countries. Poor assessment of asthma control and quality of life is a major cause of suboptimal asthma treatment worldwide, and information regarding this issue is scanty in developing countries like Ethiopia. This study thus attempted to assess the level of asthma control and quality of life in asthmatic patients attending Armed Forces Referral and Teaching Hospital. Methods. A cross-sectional study comprising 184 physician-diagnosed asthmatic patients was conducted using interview, chart review, and prescription assessment. Asthma control was assessed using Asthma Control Test, while asthma quality of life was assessed using Mini-Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire (mini-AQLQ). Spearman’s rank correlation analysis was performed to understand the relationship between mean mini-AQLQ score and asthma control. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to establish cut-off values for mini-AQLQ. Results. Asthma was uncontrolled in 67.9% subjects. There was a strong correlation between asthma control and quality of life (rs=0.772; P<0.01). A cut-off value for the quality of life was established at 4.97. Majority of the patients were taking two or three antiasthmatic drugs. Oral tablet and inhaler short-acting beta agonists (SABA) were the frequently combined drugs. Uncontrolled asthma was associated with middle-aged adults (adjusted odds ratio AOR=6.31; 95% CI: 2.06, 19.3; P=0.001), male gender (AOR=0.38; 95% CI: 0.15, 0.98; P=0.044), married (AOR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08, 0.78; P=0.017), comorbidities (AOR=0.23; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.61; P=0.003), and oral SABA use (AOR=0.22; 95% CI: 0.09, 0.59; P=0.003). Male gender (AOR=0.36; 95% CI: 0.16, 0.84; P=0.018), intermittent asthma (AOR=0.18; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.86; P=0.032), use of oral corticosteroids (AOR=0.22; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.73; P=0.013), and SABA (AOR=0.39; 95% CI: 0.17, 0.89; P=0.026) were found to have a significant association with poor asthma-related quality of life. Conclusion. The findings collectively indicate asthma remains poorly controlled in a large proportion of asthma patients in the study setting. Moreover, quality of life appears to be directly related to asthma control. Healthcare providers should therefore focus on asthma education with an integrated treatment plan to improve asthma control and quality of life

The impact of the 2019/2020 Australian landscape fires on infant feeding and contaminants in breast milk in women with asthma

Background: The 2019/2020 Australian landscape fires (bushfires) resulted in prolonged extreme air pollution; little is known about the effects on breastfeeding women and their infants. This study aimed to examine the impact of prolonged landscape fires on infant feeding methods and assess the concentration of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and elements in breast milk samples. Methods: From May – December 2020, women with asthma, who were feeding their infants during the fires, were recruited from an existing cohort. Data on infant feeding and maternal concern during the fires were retrospectively collected. Breast milk samples were collected from a sample of women during the fire period and compared with samples collected outside of the fire period for levels of 16 PAHs (gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry), and 20 elements (inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry). Results: One-hundred-and-two women who were feeding infants completed the survey, and 77 provided 92 breast milk samples. Two women reported concern about the impact of fire events on their infant feeding method, while four reported the events influenced their decision. PAHs were detected in 34% of samples collected during, versus no samples collected outside, the fire period (cross-sectional analysis); specifically, fluoranthene (median concentration 0.015 mg/kg) and pyrene (median concentration 0.008 mg/kg) were detected. Women whose samples contained fluoranthene and pyrene were exposed to higher levels of fire-related fine particulate matter and more fire days, versus women whose samples had no detectable fluoranthene and pyrene. Calcium, potassium, magnesium, sodium, sulphur, and copper were detected in all samples. No samples contained chromium, lead, nickel, barium, or aluminium. No statistically significant difference was observed in the concentration of elements between samples collected during the fire period versus outside the fire period. Conclusions: Few women had concerns about the impact of fire events on infant feeding. Detection of fluoranthene and pyrene in breast milk samples was more likely during the 2019/2020 Australian fire period; however, levels detected were much lower than levels expected to be related to adverse health outcomes

The impact of prolonged landscape fire smoke exposure on women with asthma in Australia

Background: Little is known about the physical and mental health impact of exposure to landscape fire smoke in women with asthma. This study examined the health impacts and information-seeking behaviours of women with asthma exposed to the 2019/2020 Australian fires, including women who were pregnant. Methods: Women with asthma were recruited from the Breathing for Life Trial in Australia. Following the landscape fire exposure period, self-reported data were collected regarding symptoms (respiratory and non-respiratory), asthma exacerbations, wellbeing, quality of life, information seeking, and landscape fire smoke exposure mitigation strategies. Participants’ primary residential location and fixed site monitoring was used to geolocate and estimate exposure to landscape fire-related fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5). Results: The survey was completed by 81 pregnant, 70 breastfeeding and 232 non-pregnant and non-breastfeeding women with asthma. Participants had a median daily average of 17 μg/m3 PM2.5 and 105 μg/m3 peak PM2.5 exposure over the fire period (October 2019 to February 2020). Over 80% of participants reported non-respiratory and respiratory symptoms during the fire period and 41% reported persistent symptoms. Over 82% reported asthma symptoms and exacerbations of asthma during the fire period. Half the participants sought advice from a health professional for their symptoms. Most (97%) kept windows/doors shut when inside and 94% stayed indoors to minimise exposure to landscape fire smoke. Over two in five (43%) participants reported that their capacity to participate in usual activities was reduced due to prolonged smoke exposure during the fire period. Participants reported greater anxiety during the fire period than after the fire period (mean (SD) = 53(13) versus 39 (13); p \u3c 0.001). Two in five (38%) pregnant participants reported having concerns about the effect of fire events on their pregnancy. Conclusion: Prolonged landscape fire smoke exposure during the 2019/2020 Australian fire period had a significant impact on the health and wellbeing of women with asthma, including pregnant women with asthma. This was despite most women taking actions to minimise exposure to landscape fire smoke. Effective and consistent public health messaging is needed during landscape fire events to guard the health of women with asthma