El Niño Driven Changes in Global Fire 2015/16

This is the final version. Available on open access from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: The JULES code used in these experiments is freely available on the JULES trunk from version 5.4 onward. The rose suite used for these experiments is u-bh074. Both the suite and the JULES code are available on the JULES FCM repository: https://code.metoffice.gov.uk/trac/jules (registration required). The raw data supporting the conclusions of this article will be made available by the authors, without undue reservation, to any qualified researcher upon request.El Niño years are characterized by a high sea surface temperature anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, which leads to unusually warm and dry conditions over many fire-prone regions globally. This can lead to an increase in burned area and emissions from fire activity, and socio-economic, and environmental losses. Previous studies using satellite observations to assess the impacts of the recent 2015/16 El Niño found an increase in burned area in some regions compared to La Niña years. Here, we use the dynamic land surface model JULES to assess how conditions differed as a result of the El Niño by comparing simulations driven by observations from the year 2015/16 with mean climatological drivers of temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, air pressure, and short and long-wave radiation. We use JULES with the interactive fire module INFERNO to assess the effects on precipitation, temperature, burned area, and the associated impacts on the carbon sink globally and for three regions: South America, Africa, and Asia. We find that the model projects a variable response in precipitation, with some areas including northern South America, southern Africa and East Asia getting drier, and most areas globally seeing an increase in temperature. As a result, higher burned area is simulated with El Niño conditions in most regions, although there are areas of both increased and decreased burned area over Africa. South America shows the largest fire response with El Niño, with a 13% increase in burned area and emitted carbon, corresponding with the largest decrease in carbon uptake. Within South America, peak fire occurs from August to October across central-southern Brazil, and temperature is shown to be the main driver of the El Niño-induced increase in burned area during this period. Combined, our results indicate that although 2015/16 was not a peak year for global total burned area or fire emissions, the El Niño led to an overall increase of 4% in burned area and 5% in emissions compared to a “No El Niño” scenario for 2015/16, and contributed to a 4% reduction in the terrestrial carbon sink.Newton FundNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP)Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq)Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI

Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon 'dieback'.

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from The Royal Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2007.0028Simulations with the Hadley Centre general circulation model (HadCM3), including carbon cycle model and forced by a 'business-as-usual' emissions scenario, predict a rapid loss of Amazonian rainforest from the middle of this century onwards. The robustness of this projection to both uncertainty in physical climate drivers and the formulation of the land surface scheme is investigated. We analyse how the modelled vegetation cover in Amazonia responds to (i) uncertainty in the parameters specified in the atmosphere component of HadCM3 and their associated influence on predicted surface climate. We then enhance the land surface description and (ii) implement a multilayer canopy light interception model and compare with the simple 'big-leaf' approach used in the original simulations. Finally, (iii) we investigate the effect of changing the method of simulating vegetation dynamics from an area-based model (TRIFFID) to a more complex size- and age-structured approximation of an individual-based model (ecosystem demography). We find that the loss of Amazonian rainforest is robust across the climate uncertainty explored by perturbed physics simulations covering a wide range of global climate sensitivity. The introduction of the refined light interception model leads to an increase in simulated gross plant carbon uptake for the present day, but, with altered respiration, the net effect is a decrease in net primary productivity. However, this does not significantly affect the carbon loss from vegetation and soil as a consequence of future simulated depletion in soil moisture; the Amazon forest is still lost. The introduction of the more sophisticated dynamic vegetation model reduces but does not halt the rate of forest dieback. The potential for human-induced climate change to trigger the loss of Amazon rainforest appears robust within the context of the uncertainties explored in this paper. Some further uncertainties should be explored, particularly with respect to the representation of rooting depth

Synergistic ecoclimate teleconnections from forest loss in different regions structure global ecological responses

ABSTRACT: Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change

Rapid evolution of microbe-mediated protection against pathogens in a worm host.

Microbes can defend their host against virulent infections, but direct evidence for the adaptive origin of microbe-mediated protection is lacking. Using experimental evolution of a novel, tripartite interaction, we demonstrate that mildly pathogenic bacteria (Enterococcus faecalis) living in worms (Caenorhabditis elegans) rapidly evolved to defend their animal hosts against infection by a more virulent pathogen (Staphylococcus aureus), crossing the parasitism-mutualism continuum. Host protection evolved in all six, independently selected populations in response to within-host bacterial interactions and without direct selection for host health. Microbe-mediated protection was also effective against a broad spectrum of pathogenic S. aureus isolates. Genomic analysis implied that the mechanistic basis for E. faecalis-mediated protection was through increased production of antimicrobial superoxide, which was confirmed by biochemical assays. Our results indicate that microbes living within a host may make the evolutionary transition to mutualism in response to pathogen attack, and that microbiome evolution warrants consideration as a driver of infection outcome

Increasing leadership capacity for HIV/AIDS programmes by strengthening public health epidemiology and management training in Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increased funding for global human immunodeficiency virus prevention and control in developing countries has created both a challenge and an opportunity for achieving long-term global health goals. This paper describes a programme in Zimbabwe aimed at responding more effectively to the HIV/AIDS epidemic by reinforcing a critical competence-based training institution and producing public health leaders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The programme used new HIV/AIDS programme-specific funds to build on the assets of a local education institution to strengthen and expand the general public health leadership capacity in Zimbabwe, simultaneously ensuring that they were trained in HIV interventions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The programme increased both numbers of graduates and retention of faculty. The expanded HIV/AIDS curriculum was associated with a substantial increase in trainee projects related to HIV. The increased number of public health professionals has led to a number of practically trained persons working in public health leadership positions in the ministry, including in HIV/AIDS programmes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Investment of a modest proportion of new HIV/AIDS resources in targeted public health leadership training programmes can assist in building capacity to lead and manage national HIV and other public health programmes.</p

Performance of the CMS Cathode Strip Chambers with Cosmic Rays

The Cathode Strip Chambers (CSCs) constitute the primary muon tracking device in the CMS endcaps. Their performance has been evaluated using data taken during a cosmic ray run in fall 2008. Measured noise levels are low, with the number of noisy channels well below 1%. Coordinate resolution was measured for all types of chambers, and fall in the range 47 microns to 243 microns. The efficiencies for local charged track triggers, for hit and for segments reconstruction were measured, and are above 99%. The timing resolution per layer is approximately 5 ns

X-ray emission from the Sombrero galaxy: discrete sources

We present a study of discrete X-ray sources in and around the bulge-dominated, massive Sa galaxy, Sombrero (M104), based on new and archival Chandra observations with a total exposure of ~200 ks. With a detection limit of L_X = 1E37 erg/s and a field of view covering a galactocentric radius of ~30 kpc (11.5 arcminute), 383 sources are detected. Cross-correlation with Spitler et al.'s catalogue of Sombrero globular clusters (GCs) identified from HST/ACS observations reveals 41 X-rays sources in GCs, presumably low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). We quantify the differential luminosity functions (LFs) for both the detected GC and field LMXBs, whose power-low indices (~1.1 for the GC-LF and ~1.6 for field-LF) are consistent with previous studies for elliptical galaxies. With precise sky positions of the GCs without a detected X-ray source, we further quantify, through a fluctuation analysis, the GC LF at fainter luminosities down to 1E35 erg/s. The derived index rules out a faint-end slope flatter than 1.1 at a 2 sigma significance, contrary to recent findings in several elliptical galaxies and the bulge of M31. On the other hand, the 2-6 keV unresolved emission places a tight constraint on the field LF, implying a flattened index of ~1.0 below 1E37 erg/s. We also detect 101 sources in the halo of Sombrero. The presence of these sources cannot be interpreted as galactic LMXBs whose spatial distribution empirically follows the starlight. Their number is also higher than the expected number of cosmic AGNs (52+/-11 [1 sigma]) whose surface density is constrained by deep X-ray surveys. We suggest that either the cosmic X-ray background is unusually high in the direction of Sombrero, or a distinct population of X-ray sources is present in the halo of Sombrero.Comment: 11 figures, 5 tables, ApJ in pres

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one

Exon Array Analysis of Head and Neck Cancers Identifies a Hypoxia Related Splice Variant of LAMA3 Associated with a Poor Prognosis

The identification of alternatively spliced transcript variants specific to particular biological processes in tumours should increase our understanding of cancer. Hypoxia is an important factor in cancer biology, and associated splice variants may present new markers to help with planning treatment. A method was developed to analyse alternative splicing in exon array data, using probeset multiplicity to identify genes with changes in expression across their loci, and a combination of the splicing index and a new metric based on the variation of reliability weighted fold changes to detect changes in the splicing patterns. The approach was validated on a cancer/normal sample dataset in which alternative splicing events had been confirmed using RT-PCR. We then analysed ten head and neck squamous cell carcinomas using exon arrays and identified differentially expressed splice variants in five samples with high versus five with low levels of hypoxia-associated genes. The analysis identified a splice variant of LAMA3 (Laminin α 3), LAMA3-A, known to be involved in tumour cell invasion and progression. The full-length transcript of the gene (LAMA3-B) did not appear to be hypoxia-associated. The results were confirmed using qualitative RT-PCR. In a series of 59 prospectively collected head and neck tumours, expression of LAMA3-A had prognostic significance whereas LAMA3-B did not. This work illustrates the potential for alternatively spliced transcripts to act as biomarkers of disease prognosis with improved specificity for particular tissues or conditions over assays which do not discriminate between splice variants

Bath Breakfast Project (BBP) - Examining the role of extended daily fasting in human energy balance and associated health outcomes: Study protocol for a randomised controlled trial [ISRCTN31521726]

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Current guidance regarding the role of daily breakfast in human health is largely grounded in cross-sectional observations. However, the causal nature of these relationships has not been fully explored and what limited information is emerging from controlled laboratory-based experiments appears inconsistent with much existing data. Further progress in our understanding therefore requires a direct examination of how daily breakfast impacts human health under free-living conditions.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The Bath Breakfast Project (BBP) is a randomised controlled trial comparing the effects of daily breakfast consumption relative to extended fasting on energy balance and human health. Approximately 70 men and women will undergo extensive laboratory-based assessments of their acute metabolic responses under fasted and post-prandial conditions, to include: resting metabolic rate, substrate oxidation, dietary-induced thermogenesis and systemic concentrations of key metabolites/hormones. Physiological and psychological indices of appetite will also be monitored both over the first few hours of the day (i.e. whether fed or fasted) and also following a standardised test lunch used to assess voluntary energy intake under controlled conditions. Baseline measurements of participants' anthropometric characteristics (e.g. DEXA) will be recorded prior to intervention, along with an oral glucose tolerance test and acquisition of adipose tissue samples to determine expression of key genes and estimates of tissue-specific insulin action. Participants will then be randomly assigned either to a group prescribed an energy intake of ≥3000 kJ before 1100 each day or a group to extend their overnight fast by abstaining from ingestion of energy-providing nutrients until 1200 each day, with all laboratory-based measurements followed-up 6 weeks later. Free-living assessments of energy intake (via direct weighed food diaries) and energy expenditure (via combined heart-rate/accelerometry) will be made during the first and last week of intervention, with continuous glucose monitors worn both to document chronic glycaemic responses to the intervention and to verify compliance.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN31521726">ISRCTN31521726</a>.</p