Searching for transit timing variations in transiting exoplanet systems

Searching for transit timing variations in the known transiting exoplanet systems can reveal the presence of other bodies in the system. Here we report such searches for two transiting exoplanet systems, TrES-1 and WASP-2. Their new transits were observed with the 4.2m William Herschel Telescope located on La Palma, Spain. In a continuing programme, three consecutive transits were observed for TrES-1, and one for WASP-2 during September 2007. We used the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations to derive transit times and their uncertainties. The resulting transit times are consistent with the most recent ephemerides and no conclusive proof of additional bodies in either system was found.Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the 253rd IAU Symposium: "Transiting Planets", May 2008, Cambridge, MA. 4 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Isolation of quiescent and nonquiescent cells from yeast stationary-phase cultures

Quiescence is the most common and, arguably, most poorly understood cell cycle state. This is in part because pure populations of quiescent cells are typically difficult to isolate. We report the isolation and characterization of quiescent and nonquiescent cells from stationary-phase (SP) yeast cultures by density-gradient centrifugation. Quiescent cells are dense, unbudded daughter cells formed after glucose exhaustion. They synchronously reenter the mitotic cell cycle, suggesting that they are in a G0 state. Nonquiescent cells are less dense, heterogeneous, and composed of replicatively older, asynchronous cells that rapidly lose the ability to reproduce. Microscopic and flow cytometric analysis revealed that nonquiescent cells accumulate more reactive oxygen species than quiescent cells, and over 21 d, about half exhibit signs of apoptosis and necrosis. The ability to isolate both quiescent and nonquiescent yeast cells from SP cultures provides a novel, tractable experimental system for studies of quiescence, chronological and replicative aging, apoptosis, and the cell cycle

Project overview and update on WEAVE: the next generation wide-field spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope

We present an overview of and status report on the WEAVE next-generation spectroscopy facility for the William Herschel Telescope (WHT). WEAVE principally targets optical ground-based follow up of upcoming ground-based (LOFAR) and space-based (Gaia) surveys. WEAVE is a multi-object and multi-IFU facility utilizing a new 2-degree prime focus field of view at the WHT, with a buffered pick-and-place positioner system hosting 1000 multi-object (MOS) fibres, 20 integral field units, or a single large IFU for each observation. The fibres are fed to a single spectrograph, with a pair of 8k(spectral) x 6k (spatial) pixel cameras, located within the WHT GHRIL enclosure on the telescope Nasmyth platform, supporting observations at R~5000 over the full 370-1000nm wavelength range in a single exposure, or a high resolution mode with limited coverage in each arm at R~20000. The project is now in the final design and early procurement phase, with commissioning at the telescope expected in 2017.Comment: 11 pages, 11 Figures, Summary of a presentation to Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 201

Developing Strategies for Onchocerciasis Elimination Mapping and Surveillance Through The Diagnostic Network Optimization Approach

Background Onchocerciasis (river blindness) is a filarial disease targeted for elimination of transmission. However, challenges exist to the implementation of effective diagnostic and surveillance strategies at various stages of elimination programs. To address these challenges, we used a network data analytics approach to identify optimal diagnostic scenarios for onchocerciasis elimination mapping (OEM). Methods The diagnostic network optimization (DNO) method was used to model the implementation of the old Ov16 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and of new RDTs in development for OEM under different testing strategy scenarios with varying testing locations, test performance and disease prevalence. Environmental suitability scores (ESS) based on machine learning algorithms were developed to identify areas at risk of transmission and used to select sites for OEM in Bandundu region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Uige province in Angola. Test sensitivity and specificity ranges were obtained from the literature for the existing RDT, and from characteristics defined in the target product profile for the new RDTs. Sourcing and transportation policies were defined, and costing information was obtained from onchocerciasis programs. Various scenarios were created to test various state configurations. The actual demand scenarios represented the disease prevalence at IUs according to the ESS, while the counterfactual scenarios (conducted only in the DRC) are based on adapted prevalence estimates to generate prevalence close to the statistical decision thresholds (5% and 2%), to account for variability in field observations. The number of correctly classified implementation units (IUs) per scenario were estimated and key cost drivers were identified. Results In both Bandundu and Uige, the sites selected based on ESS had high predicted onchocerciasis prevalence >10%. Thus, in the actual demand scenarios in both Bandundu and Uige, the old Ov16 RDT correctly classified all 13 and 11 IUs, respectively, as requiring CDTi. In the counterfactual scenarios in Bandundu, the new RDTs with higher specificity correctly classified IUs more cost effectively. The new RDT with highest specificity (99.8%) correctly classified all 13 IUs. However, very high specificity (e.g., 99.8%) when coupled with imperfect sensitivity, can result in many false negative results (missing decisions to start MDA) at the 5% statistical decision threshold (the decision rule to start MDA). This effect can be negated by reducing the statistical decision threshold to 2%. Across all scenarios, the need for second stage sampling significantly drove program costs upwards. The best performing testing strategies with new RDTs were more expensive than testing with existing tests due to need for second stage sampling, but this was offset by the cost of incorrect classification of IUs. Conclusion The new RDTs modelled added most value in areas with variable disease prevalence, with most benefit in IUs that are near the statistical decision thresholds. Based on the evaluations in this study, DNO could be used to guide the development of new RDTs based on defined sensitivities and specificities. While test sensitivity is a minor driver of whether an IU is identified as positive, higher specificities are essential. Further, these models could be used to explore the development and optimization of new tools for other neglected tropical diseases

Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries. Results In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064–801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812–181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308–85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally. Conclusions Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

The wide-field, multiplexed, spectroscopic facility WEAVE : survey design, overview, and simulated implementation

Funding for the WEAVE facility has been provided by UKRI STFC, the University of Oxford, NOVA, NWO, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), the Isaac Newton Group partners (STFC, NWO, and Spain, led by the IAC), INAF, CNRS-INSU, the Observatoire de Paris, Région Île-de-France, CONCYT through INAOE, Konkoly Observatory (CSFK), Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie (MPIA Heidelberg), Lund University, the Leibniz Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam (AIP), the Swedish Research Council, the European Commission, and the University of Pennsylvania.WEAVE, the new wide-field, massively multiplexed spectroscopic survey facility for the William Herschel Telescope, will see first light in late 2022. WEAVE comprises a new 2-degree field-of-view prime-focus corrector system, a nearly 1000-multiplex fibre positioner, 20 individually deployable 'mini' integral field units (IFUs), and a single large IFU. These fibre systems feed a dual-beam spectrograph covering the wavelength range 366-959 nm at R ∼ 5000, or two shorter ranges at R ∼ 20,000. After summarising the design and implementation of WEAVE and its data systems, we present the organisation, science drivers and design of a five- to seven-year programme of eight individual surveys to: (i) study our Galaxy's origins by completing Gaia's phase-space information, providing metallicities to its limiting magnitude for ∼ 3 million stars and detailed abundances for ∼ 1.5 million brighter field and open-cluster stars; (ii) survey ∼ 0.4 million Galactic-plane OBA stars, young stellar objects and nearby gas to understand the evolution of young stars and their environments; (iii) perform an extensive spectral survey of white dwarfs; (iv) survey  ∼ 400 neutral-hydrogen-selected galaxies with the IFUs; (v) study properties and kinematics of stellar populations and ionised gas in z 1 million spectra of LOFAR-selected radio sources; (viii) trace structures using intergalactic/circumgalactic gas at z > 2. Finally, we describe the WEAVE Operational Rehearsals using the WEAVE Simulator.PostprintPeer reviewe

The wide-field, multiplexed, spectroscopic facility WEAVE: Survey design, overview, and simulated implementation

WEAVE, the new wide-field, massively multiplexed spectroscopic survey facility for the William Herschel Telescope, will see first light in late 2022. WEAVE comprises a new 2-degree field-of-view prime-focus corrector system, a nearly 1000-multiplex fibre positioner, 20 individually deployable 'mini' integral field units (IFUs), and a single large IFU. These fibre systems feed a dual-beam spectrograph covering the wavelength range 366$-$959\,nm at $R\sim5000$, or two shorter ranges at $R\sim20\,000$. After summarising the design and implementation of WEAVE and its data systems, we present the organisation, science drivers and design of a five- to seven-year programme of eight individual surveys to: (i) study our Galaxy's origins by completing Gaia's phase-space information, providing metallicities to its limiting magnitude for $\sim$3 million stars and detailed abundances for $\sim1.5$ million brighter field and open-cluster stars; (ii) survey $\sim0.4$ million Galactic-plane OBA stars, young stellar objects and nearby gas to understand the evolution of young stars and their environments; (iii) perform an extensive spectral survey of white dwarfs; (iv) survey $\sim400$ neutral-hydrogen-selected galaxies with the IFUs; (v) study properties and kinematics of stellar populations and ionised gas in $z<0.5$ cluster galaxies; (vi) survey stellar populations and kinematics in $\sim25\,000$ field galaxies at $0.3\lesssim z \lesssim 0.7$; (vii) study the cosmic evolution of accretion and star formation using $>1$ million spectra of LOFAR-selected radio sources; (viii) trace structures using intergalactic/circumgalactic gas at $z>2$. Finally, we describe the WEAVE Operational Rehearsals using the WEAVE Simulator.Comment: 41 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication by MNRA

Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older. Methods Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health. Findings Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week. Interpretation Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.Peer reviewe

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016