Climate change refugia for the flora and fauna of England

A variety of evidence suggests that species have, in the past, been able to withstand the effects of climatic change in localised environments known as refugia, where specific environmental conditions acted as a buffer against broader-scale climatic changes. Therefore, an important question for conservation is whether refugia might exist under current and future anthropogenic climate change. If there are areas that are likely to remain relatively climatically stable and so enable species to persist despite climate change making surrounding areas unsuitable, identifying and protecting these places will be an important part of future conservation strategies. This report is part of a project that is investigating this question. The report was commissioned to identify the characteristics of potential refugia, to investigate evidence for the existence of contemporary refugia by analysing patterns of local persistence and disappearance of over 1000 species across a range of taxa, and to identify sites in England with the potential to function as refugia for different taxonomic groups at a range of spatial scales

Effects of a programme of vigorous physical activity during secondary school physical education on academic performance, fitness, cognition, mental health and the brain of adolescents (Fit to Study): Study protocol for a cluster randomised trial

Background. Early adolescence is a period of dynamic neurobiological change. Converging lines of research suggest that regular physical activity (PA) and improved aerobic fitness have the potential to stimulate positive brain changes, improve cognitive function and boost academic attainment in this age group, but high-quality studies are needed to substantiate these findings. The primary aim of the Fit to Study trial is to investigate whether short infusions of vigorous PA (VPA) delivered during secondary school physical education (PE) can improve attainment in maths, as described in a protocol published by NatCen Social Research. The present protocol concerns the trial’s secondary outcome measures, which are variables thought to moderate or mediate the relationship between PA and attainment, including the effect of the intervention on cardiorespiratory fitness, cognitive performance, mental health and brain structure and function. Method. The Fit to Study project is a cluster-randomised controlled trial that includes Year 8 pupils (aged 12–13) from secondary state schools in South/Mid-England. Schools were randomised into an intervention condition in which PE teachers delivered an additional 10 min of VPA per PE lesson for one academic year, or a ‘PE as usual’ control condition. Intervention and control groups were stratified according to whether schools were single-sex or co-educational. Assessments take place at baseline (end of Year 7, aged 11–12) and after 12 months (Year 8). Secondary outcomes are cardiorespiratory fitness, objective PA during PE, cognitive performance and mental health. The study also includes exploratory measures of daytime sleepiness, attitudes towards daily PA and PE enjoyment. A sub-set of pupils from a sub-set of schools will also take part in a brain imaging sub-study, which is embedded in the trial. Discussion. The Fit to Study trial could advance our understanding of the complex relationships between PA and aerobic fitness, the brain, cognitive performance, mental health and academic attainment during adolescence. Further, it will add to our understanding of whether school PE is an effective setting to increase VPA and fitness, which could inform future PA interventions and education policy

Pathways of degradation in rangelands in Northern Tanzania show their loss of resistance, but potential for recovery

Semiarid rangelands are identified as at high risk of degradation due to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Through tracking timelines of degradation we aimed to identify whether degradation results from a loss of resistance to environmental shocks, or loss of recovery, both of which are important prerequisites for restoration. Here we combined extensive field surveys with remote sensing data to explore whether long-term changes in grazing potential demonstrate loss of resistance (ability to maintain function despite pressure) or loss of recovery (ability to recover following shocks). To monitor degradation, we created a bare ground index: a measure of grazeable vegetation cover visible in satellite imagery, allowing for machine learning based image classification. We found that locations that ended up the most degraded tended to decline in condition more during years of widespread degradation but maintained their recovery potential. These results suggest that resilience in rangelands is lost through declines in resistance, rather than loss of recovery potential. We show that the long-term rate of degradation correlates negatively with rainfall and positively with human population and livestock density, and conclude that sensitive land and grazing management could enable restoration of degraded landscapes, given their retained ability to recover

20 years of the Atlantic Meridional Transect - AMT

The AMT (www.amt-uk.org) is a multidisciplinary programme which undertakes biological, chemical, and physical oceanographic research during an annual voyage between the UK and a destination in the South Atlantic such as the Falkland Islands, South Africa, or Chile. This transect of >12,000 km crosses a range of ecosystems from subpolar to tropical, from euphotic shelf seas and upwelling systems, to oligotrophic mid-ocean gyres. The year 2015 has seen two milestones in the history of the AMT: the achievement of 20 years of this unique ocean going programme and the departure of the 25th cruise on the 15th of September. Both of these events were celebrated in June this year with an open science conference hosted by the Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) and will be further documented in a special issue of Progress in Oceanography which is planned for publication in 2016. Since 1995, the 25 research cruises have involved 242 sea-going scientists from 66 institutes representing 22 countries. AMT was designed from the outset to be a collaborative programme. It was originally conceived by Jim Aiken, Patrick Holligan, Roger Harris, and Dave Robins with Chuck McClain and Chuck Trees at NASA to test and ground truth satellite algorithms of ocean color. The opportunities offered by this initiative meant that this series of repeated biannual cruises rapidly developed into a coordinated study of ocean biodiversity, biogeochemistry, and ocean/atmosphere interactions

Search for direct production of charginos and neutralinos in events with three leptons and missing transverse momentum in √s = 7 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for the direct production of charginos and neutralinos in final states with three electrons or muons and missing transverse momentum is presented. The analysis is based on 4.7 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data delivered by the Large Hadron Collider and recorded with the ATLAS detector. Observations are consistent with Standard Model expectations in three signal regions that are either depleted or enriched in Z-boson decays. Upper limits at 95% confidence level are set in R-parity conserving phenomenological minimal supersymmetric models and in simplified models, significantly extending previous results

Jet size dependence of single jet suppression in lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s(NN)) = 2.76 TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Measurements of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions at the LHC provide direct sensitivity to the physics of jet quenching. In a sample of lead-lead collisions at sqrt(s) = 2.76 TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of approximately 7 inverse microbarns, ATLAS has measured jets with a calorimeter over the pseudorapidity interval |eta| < 2.1 and over the transverse momentum range 38 < pT < 210 GeV. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-kt algorithm with values for the distance parameter that determines the nominal jet radius of R = 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5. The centrality dependence of the jet yield is characterized by the jet "central-to-peripheral ratio," Rcp. Jet production is found to be suppressed by approximately a factor of two in the 10% most central collisions relative to peripheral collisions. Rcp varies smoothly with centrality as characterized by the number of participating nucleons. The observed suppression is only weakly dependent on jet radius and transverse momentum. These results provide the first direct measurement of inclusive jet suppression in heavy ion collisions and complement previous measurements of dijet transverse energy imbalance at the LHC.Comment: 15 pages plus author list (30 pages total), 8 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Physics Letters B. All figures including auxiliary figures are available at http://atlas.web.cern.ch/Atlas/GROUPS/PHYSICS/PAPERS/HION-2011-02

Scaling and universality in the phase diagram of the 2D Blume-Capel model

We review the pertinent features of the phase diagram of the zero-field Blume-Capel model, focusing on the aspects of transition order, finite-size scaling and universality. In particular, we employ a range of Monte Carlo simulation methods to study the 2D spin-1 Blume-Capel model on the square lattice to investigate the behavior in the vicinity of the first-order and second-order regimes of the ferromagnet-paramagnet phase boundary, respectively. To achieve high-precision results, we utilize a combination of (i) a parallel version of the multicanonical algorithm and (ii) a hybrid updating scheme combining Metropolis and generalized Wolff cluster moves. These techniques are combined to study for the first time the correlation length of the model, using its scaling in the regime of second-order transitions to illustrate universality through the observed identity of the limiting value of $\xi/L$ with the exactly known result for the Ising universality class.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, submitted to Eur. Phys. J. Special Topic

Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan