A Tecnologia Blockchain nos Tribunais de Contas do Brasil

The objective of this work is to verify the existence of applications under development or already implemented that use blockchain technology in the Brazilian Courts of Accounts. The researched universe corresponds to the 33 Brazilian external control units. The research is exploratory, descriptive and documentary. The results were obtained through consultations on the websites of the Courts of Accounts, using the term “blockchain”, completing it by opening demands with the respective ombudsman. It was found that (I) only the Court of Accounts of the State of Rio de Janeiro (TCE-RJ) reported that it had developed and implemented a system with blockchain technology for internal use; (II) the Federal Accounts Court (TCU) cav. rried out a survey of the use of blockchain technology in the Federal Public Administration, which resulted in Judgment n. 1613/2020-Plenary; and (III) the Accounts Courts did not report the development of any specific action related to blockchain technology.O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar a existência de aplicações em desenvolvimento ou já implementadas que utilizem a tecnologia blockchain nos Tribunais de Contas do Brasil. O universo pesquisado corresponde às 33 unidades de controle externo brasileiras. A pesquisa é de natureza exploratória, descritiva e documental. Os resultados foram obtidos por meio de consultas nos sites dos Tribunais de Contas, utilizando-se o termo “blockchain”, completando-as por meio de abertura de demandas junto às respectivas ouvidorias. Constatou-se que (I) apenas o Tribunal de Contas do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (TCE-RJ) informou que desenvolveu e implementou um sistema com tecnologia blockchain para uso interno; (II) o Tribunal de Contas da União (TCU) realizou um levantamento do uso da tecnologia blockchain na Administração Pública Federal, que resultou no Acórdão n. 1613/2020-Plenário; e (III) os demais Tribunais de Contas não informaram o desenvolvimento de qualquer ação específica relacionada à tecnologia blockchain

A CONSTRUÇÃO DA SUBJETIVIDADE EM MEMBROS DE RELIGIÕES DE MATRIZ AFRICANA NA AMAZÔNIA: fenomenologia dos saberes

The search for the sacred has always been present in the life of the man who was concerned with the practice of his religiousness or spirituality. Therefore, the religious phenomenon through the mystical search and the practice of syncretism that involves a mix of practices and rituals that aim to provide the subject's well-being permeates the context of human civilization and would not be different in the Amazon region. However, it becomes important to understand religiosity and how this man builds his subjectivity based on practices so different from his culture.. This article is the result of a Master's Dissertation that proposed the investigation of how the Amazonian man, specifically that of the Amazon, builds his subjectivity from the contact with African-based cults, based on the analysis of Martin Heidegger's philosophy. Units of meanings were identified that allowed the formation of Categories of Analysis that served to understand how individuals constituted their subjectivity from religious practices. The study revealed that the individuals who practice African cults Umbanda and Candomblé constitute their subjectivity based on a process of taking care of the other or being-with-the-other in a proposal that taking care of the other, this being takes care of itself. I realize that in their historical trajectory, each of them was immersed in the knowledge about the religions of African origin that they profess, and the state of humor provided the understanding of their role, their possibilities, their power-being. The indication of why was established, revealing the meaning. The sense of being a member of an African religion; the sense of assuming the personality characteristics of their masters or guides; the sense for the facticities experienced daily that resulted in being who they are today, leaders of terreiros / sheds, taking responsibility for each one of those who seek them, in order to promote knowledge, relief, care.   Keywords: Amazonian man, religiosity, African Matrix Cults, Subjectivity, PhenomenologyA busca pelo sagrado, sempre se fez presente na vida do homem que esteve voltado a prática de sua religiosidade ou espiritualidade. Portanto, o fenômeno religioso através da busca mística e da prática do sincretismo que envolve uma miscelânea de práticas e rituais que visam proporcionar o bem-estar do sujeito permeia o contexto da civilização humana e não seria diferente na região amazônica. Porém, se torna importante entender a religiosidade e como este homem constrói sua subjetividade com base em práticas tão diferentes de sua cultura. Este artigo é resultado de Dissertação de mestrado que se propôs a investigação de como o homem amazônida, em específico o do Amazonas, constrói sua subjetividade a partir do contato com os cultos de matriz africana, tendo como base de análise a filosofia de Martin Heidegger. Foram identificadas Unidades de significados que permitiram a formação de Categorias de Análise que serviram para a compreensão de como os indivíduos constituíam sua subjetividade a partir das práticas religiosas. O estudo revelou que os indivíduos praticantes dos cultos de matriz Africana Umbanda e Candomblé constituem sua subjetividade pautados em um processo de cuidar-do-outro ou ser-com-o-outro numa proposta de que cuidando do outro este ser cuida de si próprio. Percebo que em sua trajetória histórica, cada um deles foi mergulhando no conhecimento acerca das religiões de matriz africana que professam e o estado de humor propiciou a compreensão de seu papel, de suas possibilidades, de seu poder-ser. Estabeleceu-se a indicação do para quê, desvelando o sentido. O sentido de ser-membro de religião de matriz africana; o sentido de assumir as características de personalidade de seus mestres ou guias; o sentido para as facticidades vivenciadas cotidianamente que resultaram em ser quem são hoje, dirigentes de terreiros/barracões, responsabilizando-se por cada um daqueles que os procuram, no objetivo de propugnar conhecimento, alívio, cuidado.   Palavras-Chave: Homem amazônida, religiosidade, Cultos de Matriz Africana, Subjetividade, Fenomenologia &nbsp

High prevalence of obesity in rheumatoid arthritis patients : association with disease activity, hypertension, dyslipidemia and diabetes, a multi-center study

Introduction: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a well-documented independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. Obesity may provide an additional link between inflammation and accelerated atherosclerosis in RA. Objective: To evaluate the association between obesity and disease parameters and cardiovascular risk factors in RA patients. Method: Cross-sectional study of a cohort of RA patients from three Brazilian teaching hospitals. Information on demographics, clinical parameters and the presence of cardiovascular risk factors was collected. Blood pressure, weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured during the first consultation. Laboratory data were retrieved from medical records. Obesity was defined according to the NCEP/ATPIII and IDF guidelines. The prevalence of obesity was determined cross-sectionally. Disease activity was evaluated using the DAS28 system (remission 5.1). Results: The sample consisted of 791 RA patients aged 54.7 ± 12.0 years, of whom 86.9% were women and 59.9% were Caucasian. The mean disease duration was 12.8 ± 8.9 years. Three quarters were rheumatoid factor-positive, the mean body mass index (BMI) was 27.1 ± 4.9, and the mean WC was 93.5 ± 12.5 cm. The observed risk factors included dyslipidemia (34.3%), type-2 diabetes (15%), hypertension (49.2%) and family history of premature cardiovascular disease (16.5%). BMIdefined obesity was highly prevalent (26.9%) and associated with age, hypertension and dyslipidemia. Increased WC was associated with diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidemia and disease activity. Conclusion: Obesity was highly prevalent in RA patients and associated with disease activity

Pneumonia adquirida na comunidade: aspectos etiopatogênicos, métodos diagnósticos e condutas terapêuticas

A pneumonia adquirida na comunidade (PAC) consiste em uma infecção pulmonar aguda infecciosa que acomete indivíduos fora do ambiente hospitalar ou de demais centros de saúde. Etiologicamente, sabe-se que a PAC pode ser causada por vírus, bactérias ou fungos, estando associada a uma ampla gama de microrganismos patogênicos, o que caracteriza a sua apresentação como típica ou atípica. Em virtude da sua variedade etiológica, a epidemiologia é variada e a incidência depende de diversos fatores. Sua patogênese envolve uma complexa interação entre os agentes etiológicos, os fatores imunes do hospedeiro e os fatores ambientais. Todavia, sabe-se que decorre da microaspiração dos patógenos, os quais atingem as vias aéreas inferiores e desencadeiam uma resposta inflamatória exuberante, levando à consolidação pulmonar, o que compromete a eficiência da troca gasosa alveolar. As manifestações clínicas decorrentes da PAC são amplas e variam de paciente para paciente e conforme a apresentação e gravidade da doença. Contudo, a sintomatologia clássica cursa com dispneia, tosse produtiva e febre. No que tange ao diagnóstico, este é, frequentemente, clínico, baseado na história de evolução da doença e no exame físico. Comumente, utiliza-se métodos para confirmação diagnóstica, como exames laboratoriais e exames de imagem, em especial a radiografia de tórax. Tais exames ajudam coletivamente a confirmar a presença de uma pneumonia, avaliando sua gravidade e, em alguns casos, identificando o patógeno causador, o que aumenta as chances de sucesso terapêutico. Ademais, escores de gravidade da doença são, usualmente, utilizados, como o Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) e o CURB-65, os quais auxiliam na determinação do nível em que o tratamento será realizado, considerando que pode ser ambulatorial ou hospitalar. O manejo terapêutico é imprescindível, a fim de evitar evolução do quadro e piora progressiva da função pulmonar, o qual é realizado com esquemas antimicrobianos, a depender da suspeita do agente etiológico, da gravidade do quadro e das comorbidades de cada paciente

Estudo físico-químico, quimiométrico e sensorial de licor de açaí produzido em Belém do Pará / Physical-chemical, chemiometric and sensory study of açaí liquor produced in Belém do Pará

O açaí é um fruto muito consumido que tem importância econômica, social e cultural na Amazônia. Por ser nutritivo, umas das poucas formas de se conservar seu grupo antocianina, que é responsável por muitos benefícios à saúde, é a elaboração de licores à base deste fruto. O presente trabalho buscou avaliar físico-quimicamente e sensorialmente o licor de açaí. Sendo um estudo descritivo-quantitativo, foram adquiridas duas marcas de licor de açaí em na feira pública do Ver-o-Peso, em Belém do Pará, sendo essas marcas denominadas de A e B. O teor de voláteis encontrados foi de 75,35 % (A) e 81,50 % (B), o teor de sólidos solúveis totais foi 33,19º Brix (A) e 22,16º Brix (B). Enquanto obteve-se um pH de 3,80 (A) e 4,61 e a condutividade elétrica foi de 0,24 mS/cm (A) e 0,25 mS/cm (B). A densidade foi de 1,06 kg/m3 (A) e 1,03 kg/m3 (B) e a viscosidade permaneceu entre 39,23 cSt (A) e 35,61 (B). Ao se aplicar as técnicas estatísticas de ACP e AHA aos parâmetros que apresentaram diferença significativa, conforme teste t de Student (p < 0,05), observou-se que as marcas se distinguiram em 100 %. Através da análise sensorial constatou-se a preferência pela marca B, todavia através da análise estatística constatou-se que essa preferência não foi significativa. 

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44–2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64–3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7–17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8–6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7–10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0–234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7–198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3–214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0–171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3–51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9–52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54–1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5–9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0–19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9–21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0–17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7–27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6–63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4–64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6–2·9) between 2019 and 2021. Interpretation: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation