Early Warning Analysis for Social Diffusion Events

There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially viral ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network's community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political memes over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks

Temporal Learning and Sequence Modeling for a Job Recommender System

We present our solution to the job recommendation task for RecSys Challenge 2016. The main contribution of our work is to combine temporal learning with sequence modeling to capture complex user-item activity patterns to improve job recommendations. First, we propose a time-based ranking model applied to historical observations and a hybrid matrix factorization over time re-weighted interactions. Second, we exploit sequence properties in user-items activities and develop a RNN-based recommendation model. Our solution achieved 5$^{th}$ place in the challenge among more than 100 participants. Notably, the strong performance of our RNN approach shows a promising new direction in employing sequence modeling for recommendation systems.Comment: a shorter version in proceedings of RecSys Challenge 201

Link Prediction in Complex Networks: A Survey

Link prediction in complex networks has attracted increasing attention from both physical and computer science communities. The algorithms can be used to extract missing information, identify spurious interactions, evaluate network evolving mechanisms, and so on. This article summaries recent progress about link prediction algorithms, emphasizing on the contributions from physical perspectives and approaches, such as the random-walk-based methods and the maximum likelihood methods. We also introduce three typical applications: reconstruction of networks, evaluation of network evolving mechanism and classification of partially labelled networks. Finally, we introduce some applications and outline future challenges of link prediction algorithms.Comment: 44 pages, 5 figure

Metaheuristic design of feedforward neural networks: a review of two decades of research

Over the past two decades, the feedforward neural network (FNN) optimization has been a key interest among the researchers and practitioners of multiple disciplines. The FNN optimization is often viewed from the various perspectives: the optimization of weights, network architecture, activation nodes, learning parameters, learning environment, etc. Researchers adopted such different viewpoints mainly to improve the FNN's generalization ability. The gradient-descent algorithm such as backpropagation has been widely applied to optimize the FNNs. Its success is evident from the FNN's application to numerous real-world problems. However, due to the limitations of the gradient-based optimization methods, the metaheuristic algorithms including the evolutionary algorithms, swarm intelligence, etc., are still being widely explored by the researchers aiming to obtain generalized FNN for a given problem. This article attempts to summarize a broad spectrum of FNN optimization methodologies including conventional and metaheuristic approaches. This article also tries to connect various research directions emerged out of the FNN optimization practices, such as evolving neural network (NN), cooperative coevolution NN, complex-valued NN, deep learning, extreme learning machine, quantum NN, etc. Additionally, it provides interesting research challenges for future research to cope-up with the present information processing era

Learning Fast and Slow: PROPEDEUTICA for Real-time Malware Detection

In this paper, we introduce and evaluate PROPEDEUTICA, a novel methodology and framework for efficient and effective real-time malware detection, leveraging the best of conventional machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms. In PROPEDEUTICA, all software processes in the system start execution subjected to a conventional ML detector for fast classification. If a piece of software receives a borderline classification, it is subjected to further analysis via more performance expensive and more accurate DL methods, via our newly proposed DL algorithm DEEPMALWARE. Further, we introduce delays to the execution of software subjected to deep learning analysis as a way to "buy time" for DL analysis and to rate-limit the impact of possible malware in the system. We evaluated PROPEDEUTICA with a set of 9,115 malware samples and 877 commonly used benign software samples from various categories for the Windows OS. Our results show that the false positive rate for conventional ML methods can reach 20%, and for modern DL methods it is usually below 6%. However, the classification time for DL can be 100X longer than conventional ML methods. PROPEDEUTICA improved the detection F1-score from 77.54% (conventional ML method) to 90.25%, and reduced the detection time by 54.86%. Further, the percentage of software subjected to DL analysis was approximately 40% on average. Further, the application of delays in software subjected to ML reduced the detection time by approximately 10%. Finally, we found and discussed a discrepancy between the detection accuracy offline (analysis after all traces are collected) and on-the-fly (analysis in tandem with trace collection). Our insights show that conventional ML and modern DL-based malware detectors in isolation cannot meet the needs of efficient and effective malware detection: high accuracy, low false positive rate, and short classification time.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

An empirical learning-based validation procedure for simulation workflow

Simulation workflow is a top-level model for the design and control of simulation process. It connects multiple simulation components with time and interaction restrictions to form a complete simulation system. Before the construction and evaluation of the component models, the validation of upper-layer simulation workflow is of the most importance in a simulation system. However, the methods especially for validating simulation workflow is very limit. Many of the existing validation techniques are domain-dependent with cumbersome questionnaire design and expert scoring. Therefore, this paper present an empirical learning-based validation procedure to implement a semi-automated evaluation for simulation workflow. First, representative features of general simulation workflow and their relations with validation indices are proposed. The calculation process of workflow credibility based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then introduced. In order to make full use of the historical data and implement more efficient validation, four learning algorithms, including back propagation neural network (BPNN), extreme learning machine (ELM), evolving new-neuron (eNFN) and fast incremental gaussian mixture model (FIGMN), are introduced for constructing the empirical relation between the workflow credibility and its features. A case study on a landing-process simulation workflow is established to test the feasibility of the proposed procedure. The experimental results also provide some useful overview of the state-of-the-art learning algorithms on the credibility evaluation of simulation models