Identifying associations between health services operational factors and health experience for patients with type 2 diabetes in Iran

BACKGROUND: Facing limited health resources, healthcare providers need to rely on health service delivery models that produce the best clinical outcomes and patient experience. We aimed to contribute to developing a patient experience-based type 2 diabetes service delivery model by identifying operational structures and processes of care that were associated with clinical outcome, health experience, and service experience. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of type 2 diabetes patients between January 2019 to February 2020. Having adjusted for demand variables, we examined relationships between independent variables (behaviours, services/processes, and structures) and three categories of dependent variables; clinical outcomes (HbA1c and fasting blood glucose), health experience (EuroQol quality of life (EQ-5D), evaluation of quality of life (visual analgene scale of EQ-5D), and satisfaction with overall health status), and service experience (evaluation of diabetes services in comparison with worst and best imaginable diabetes services and satisfaction with diabetes services). We analysed data using multivariate linear regression models using Stata software. RESULTS: After adjusting for demand variables; structures, diabetes-specific health behaviours, and processes explained up to 22, 12, and 9% of the variance in the outcomes, respectively. Based on significant associations between the diabetes service operations and outcomes, the components of an experience-based service delivery model included the structural elements (continuity of care, redistribution of task to low-cost resources, and improved access to provider), behaviours (improved patient awareness and adherence), and process elements (reduced variation in service utilization, increased responsiveness, caring, comprehensiveness of care, and shared decision-making). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the extent of explained variance and identified significant variables, health services operational factors that determine patient-reported outcomes for patients with type 2 diabetes in Iran were identified, which focus on improving continuity of care and access to providers at the first place, improving adherence to care at the second, and various operational process variables at the third place

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Application of an artificial neural network model for diagnosing type 2 diabetes mellitus and determining the relative importance of risk factors

OBJECTIVES To identify the most important demographic risk factors for a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using a neural network model. METHODS This study was conducted on a sample of 234 individuals, in whom T2DM was diagnosed using hemoglobin A1c levels. A multilayer perceptron artificial neural network was used to identify demographic risk factors for T2DM and their importance. The DeLong method was used to compare the models by fitting in sequential steps. RESULTS Variables found to be significant at a level of p<0.2 in a univariate logistic regression analysis (age, hypertension, waist circumference, body mass index [BMI], sedentary lifestyle, smoking, vegetable consumption, family history of T2DM, stress, walking, fruit consumption, and sex) were entered into the model. After 7 stages of neural network modeling, only waist circumference (100.0%), age (78.5%), BMI (78.2%), hypertension (69.4%), stress (54.2%), smoking (49.3%), and a family history of T2DM (37.2%) were identified as predictors of the diagnosis of T2DM. CONCLUSIONS In this study, waist circumference and age were the most important predictors of T2DM. Due to the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the final model, it is suggested that these variables should be used for T2DM risk assessment in screening tests

Simultaneous onset of Crohn's disease and Psoriasis in a Multiple Sclerosis patient treated with Teriflunomide: A novel case report highlighting potential autoimmune interactions

Teriflunomide (TFN) is an oral Disease-modifying therapy (DMT) widely used in the treatment of relapsing forms of Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Although TFN has demonstrated efficacy in reducing MS activity, recent evidence suggests a possible association between TFN and the onset of rare and severe medical conditions. We present a novel case report of a 47-year-old woman with a history of MS who developed concurrent Crohn's disease and Psoriasis following TFN treatment. This unique occurrence has not been previously documented in the literature. The patient experienced gastrointestinal symptoms and changes in nail color while on TFN. Colonoscopy and biopsy revealed crypt architectural distortion and lamina propria expansion, indicative of Crohn's disease, while dermatological evaluation suggested Psoriasis. Consequently, TFN was discontinued and switched to alternative therapy (Glatiramer acetate), and the patient underwent close observation and regular evaluations. Three months after stopping the TFN, the patient's nail lesions disappeared completely, her abdominal pain and diarrhea were resolved, and the follow-up colonoscopy was completely normal. In this regard, the association between MS, Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD), and Psoriasis has been reported in previous studies, with potential involvement of Th17 and IL-17 pathways. Although gastrointestinal side effects with TFN use are typically mild and transient, rare cases of TFN-induced IBD have been reported. Dermatological disorders, including Psoriasis, have also been linked to TFN use, with similarities to our case report. Further research and awareness are warranted to better understand the potential side effects and long-term implications of TFN in the management of MS

The Prevalence of Thyroid Disorders in Pregnant Women of Hamadan

Introduction: Different studies have demonstrated that maternal thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy is associated with adverse obstetrics and fetal outcomes. There is no international consensus regarding to use a guidelines for screening in high risk women. The aim of the present study was to determine prevalence of thyroid disorders in high and low risk pregnant women. Methods: In a cross-sectional study during 2015-2016, from all pregnant women who had referred to Hamadan health center Lab for their first visit, a sample of 852 pregnant women were selected and assigned to low risk and high risk group. Thyroid tests and Anti TPO tests were carried out. Results: Of 852 pregnant women, 26.5% had Subclinical hypothyroidism, 1.2% had overt hypothyroidism, 0.5% had overt hyperthyroidism and 0.2% had subclinical hyperthyroidism. 25.6% were in the high risk group and 74.4% in the low risk group and 37.4% of high risk group and 25% of the low risk population had thyroid disorders (P<0/001). 89% were Anti TPO negative and 11% were Anti TPO positive. Conclusion: Hypothyroidism is common in pregnant women, and if screening is performed only in high-risk groups, 25% of pregnant women with subclinical and overt hypothyroidism will not  be detected explicitly. In addition, to determine the exact frequency of thyroid disorders, we need to look for newer and more effective criteria