The development and use of thermal desorption methods for the analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds in ambient air

This thesis was submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy and awarded by Brunel University.In occupational and public health there is a need for measurement and speciation of chemicals in ambient air to achieve control of air pollution and minimize health risks. In this work two methods of analysis are developed for the analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) under ambient air conditions. Both methods involve the use of thermal desorption techniques with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). For the measurement of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) airborne particulate samples are obtained by collection on small glass fibre filters. The volatile materials from these are thermally desorbed in two stages and transferred to a Gas Chromatograph-Mass Spectrometer analytical system. Results from studies of particulate samples obtained from sites in the region of Uxbridge, Middlesex are reported for eight selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Measurements on samples obtained directly from vehicle emission sources with the engine used under different running conditions are also reported. In the method of analysis of volatile organic compounds in air, samples are absorbed into 4mm Carbotrap 300 tubes and thermally desorbed and passed into a gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) or gas chromatography (GC) using helium as carrier gas. The Carbotrap absorbers used, show complete absorb/desorb reversibility, are thermally stable and do not react chemically with injected hydrocarbon standards. To demonstrate the value of the method analytical results obtained under ambient air conditions on the Brunel University campus (Uxbridge, Middlesex) are reported. Six selected low molecular weight aromatic hydrocarbons namely benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and m-, p- and o-xylene are investigated in detail. The concentrations of these compounds were measured and results related to traffic flow rates and meteorological conditions to establish the fact that vehicle exhaust emissions are the main sources of the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) pollution at the collection sites. A study of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) levels in ambient air in Tehran (Iran) in which 55 hydrocarbons are identified is reported. A detailed study is made of the concentrations of the six hydrocarbons benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and m-, p- and o-xylene because high concentrations of these pollutants can produce potential health problems. It is shown that the nature of the geographical location and the day time temperature play an important part in determining the composition of the mixture of pollutants in Tehran. Samples obtained directly from internal combustion engines with and without catalytic converters are also analysed using the method developed and the results show that there is a large depletion in aromatic hydrocarbons when toluene is reduced to a greater extent than benzene. The analytical method is also used to compare vehicle emissions from engines under cold start and hot start conditions.Financial support was obtined from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Photocatalytic Removal of Methylbenzene Vapors by MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite

Methyl benzene, which has carcinogenic effects, is a volatile organic compound that is widely used in various industries. Nano composites of Mno2/Al203/Fe203, which is a new photocatalyst, have not been applied to remove contaminants from air streams. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the photocatalytic removal of ethyl benzene by using this nano composite activated by visible light. Morphological characteristics of the synthesized Nano composite in a sol-gel method are determined through XRD, FTIR, and SEM. Through the photocatalyst process and by the use of visible light radiation, the synthesized Nano composite is used to degrade ethyl benzene in the gas phase. In order to estimate the main effects and interaction ones and to optimize the experiment numbers, the response surface method was used. Operational parameters investigated in the study are the initial concentration of contaminants, relative humidity, and the residence time, which were considered in three levels; further, the experiments were designed by Design Expert version 9 software. The results show the Nano composite particle sizes were less than 82 nanometers. The findings also indicate that relative humidity and residence time were effective parameters in removal efficiency of ethyl benzene. This Nano composite, at the optimal conditions, was capable of removing 98.72% of the pollutants, with an initial content of 300 ppm. MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite is a suitable catalyst to remove ethyl benzene from air streams. Among the features of the Nano composite are reaction at room temperature and lower production dangerous byproducts, which are the main advantages of this Nano composite as compared with other nano composites

Photocatalytic Removal of Methylbenzene Vapors by MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite

Methyl benzene, which has carcinogenic effects, is a volatile organic compound that is widely used in various industries. Nano composites of Mno2/Al203/Fe203, which is a new photocatalyst, have not been applied to remove contaminants from air streams. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the photocatalytic removal of ethyl benzene by using this nano composite activated by visible light. Morphological characteristics of the synthesized Nano composite in a sol-gel method are determined through XRD, FTIR, and SEM. Through the photocatalyst process and by the use of visible light radiation, the synthesized Nano composite is used to degrade ethyl benzene in the gas phase. In order to estimate the main effects and interaction ones and to optimize the experiment numbers, the response surface method was used. Operational parameters investigated in the study are the initial concentration of contaminants, relative humidity, and the residence time, which were considered in three levels; further, the experiments were designed by Design Expert version 9 software. The results show the Nano composite particle sizes were less than 82 nanometers. The findings also indicate that relative humidity and residence time were effective parameters in removal efficiency of ethyl benzene. This Nano composite, at the optimal conditions, was capable of removing 98.72% of the pollutants, with an initial content of 300 ppm. MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite is a suitable catalyst to remove ethyl benzene from air streams. Among the features of the Nano composite are reaction at room temperature and lower production dangerous byproducts, which are the main advantages of this Nano composite as compared with other nano composites

Photocatalytic Removal of Methylbenzene Vapors by MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite

Methyl benzene, which has carcinogenic effects, is a volatile organic compound that is widely used in various industries. Nano composites of Mno2/Al203/Fe203, which is a new photocatalyst, have not been applied to remove contaminants from air streams. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to investigate the photocatalytic removal of ethyl benzene by using this nano composite activated by visible light. Morphological characteristics of the synthesized Nano composite in a sol-gel method are determined through XRD, FTIR, and SEM. Through the photocatalyst process and by the use of visible light radiation, the synthesized Nano composite is used to degrade ethyl benzene in the gas phase. In order to estimate the main effects and interaction ones and to optimize the experiment numbers, the response surface method was used. Operational parameters investigated in the study are the initial concentration of contaminants, relative humidity, and the residence time, which were considered in three levels; further, the experiments were designed by Design Expert version 9 software. The results show the Nano composite particle sizes were less than 82 nanometers. The findings also indicate that relative humidity and residence time were effective parameters in removal efficiency of ethyl benzene. This Nano composite, at the optimal conditions, was capable of removing 98.72% of the pollutants, with an initial content of 300 ppm. MnO2/Al2O3/Fe2O3 Nano composite is a suitable catalyst to remove ethyl benzene from air streams. Among the features of the Nano composite are reaction at room temperature and lower production dangerous byproducts, which are the main advantages of this Nano composite as compared with other nano composites

Bi-allelic ACBD6 variants lead to a neurodevelopmental syndrome with progressive and complex movement disorders

The acyl-CoA-binding domain-containing protein 6 (ACBD6) is ubiquitously expressed, plays a role in the acylation of lipids and proteins, and regulates the N-myristoylation of proteins via N-myristoyltransferase enzymes (NMTs). However, its precise function in cells is still unclear, as is the consequence of ACBD6 defects on human pathophysiology. Utilizing exome sequencing and extensive international data sharing efforts, we identified 45 affected individuals from 28 unrelated families (consanguinity 93%) with bi-allelic pathogenic, predominantly loss-of-function (18/20) variants in ACBD6. We generated zebrafish and Xenopus tropicalis acbd6 knockouts by CRISPR/Cas9 and characterized the role of ACBD6 on protein N-myristoylation with YnMyr chemical proteomics in the model organisms and human cells, with the latter also being subjected further to ACBD6 peroxisomal localization studies. The affected individuals (23 males and 22 females), with ages ranging from 1 to 50 years old, typically present with a complex and progressive disease involving moderate-to-severe global developmental delay/intellectual disability (100%) with significant expressive language impairment (98%), movement disorders (97%), facial dysmorphism (95%), and mild cerebellar ataxia (85%) associated with gait impairment (94%), limb spasticity/hypertonia (76%), oculomotor (71%) and behavioural abnormalities (65%), overweight (59%), microcephaly (39%) and epilepsy (33%). The most conspicuous and common movement disorder was dystonia (94%), frequently leading to early-onset progressive postural deformities (97%), limb dystonia (55%), and cervical dystonia (31%). A jerky tremor in the upper limbs (63%), a mild head tremor (59%), parkinsonism/hypokinesia developing with advancing age (32%), and simple motor and vocal tics were among other frequent movement disorders. Midline brain malformations including corpus callosum abnormalities (70%), hypoplasia/agenesis of the anterior commissure (66%), short midbrain and small inferior cerebellar vermis (38% each), as well as hypertrophy of the clava (24%) were common neuroimaging findings. acbd6-deficient zebrafish and Xenopus models effectively recapitulated many clinical phenotypes reported in patients including movement disorders, progressive neuromotor impairment, seizures, microcephaly, craniofacial dysmorphism, and midbrain defects accompanied by developmental delay with increased mortality over time. Unlike ACBD5, ACBD6 did not show a peroxisomal localisation and ACBD6-deficiency was not associated with altered peroxisomal parameters in patient fibroblasts. Significant differences in YnMyr-labelling were observed for 68 co- and 18 post-translationally N-myristoylated proteins in patient-derived fibroblasts. N-Myristoylation was similarly affected in acbd6-deficient zebrafish and Xenopus tropicalis models, including Fus, Marcks, and Chchd-related proteins implicated in neurological diseases. The present study provides evidence that bi-allelic pathogenic variants in ACBD6 lead to a distinct neurodevelopmental syndrome accompanied by complex and progressive cognitive and movement disorders

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

© 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions