Some Observational Consequences of Brane World Cosmologies

The presence of dark energy in the Universe is inferred directly and indirectly from a large body of observational evidence. The simplest and most theoretically appealing possibility is the vacuum energy density (cosmological constant). However, although in agreement with current observations, such a possibility exacerbates the well known cosmological constant problem, requiring a natural explanation for its small, but nonzero, value. In this paper we focus our attention on another dark energy candidate, one arising from gravitational \emph{leakage} into extra dimensions. We investigate observational constraints from current measurements of angular size of high-$z$ compact radio-sources on accelerated models based on this large scale modification of gravity. The predicted age of the Universe in the context of these models is briefly discussed. We argue that future observations will enable a more accurate test of these cosmologies and, possibly, show that such models constitute a viable possibility for the dark energy problem.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. D (minor revisions

A de novo paradigm for male infertility

Genetics of Male Infertility Initiative (GEMINI) consortium: Donald F. Conrad, Liina Nagirnaja, Kenneth I. Aston, Douglas T. Carrell, James M. Hotaling, Timothy G. Jenkins, Rob McLachlan, Moira K. O’Bryan, Peter N. Schlegel, Michael L. Eisenberg, Jay I. Sandlow, Emily S. Jungheim, Kenan R. Omurtag, Alexandra M. Lopes, Susana Seixas, Filipa Carvalho, Susana Fernandes, Alberto Barros, João Gonçalves, Iris Caetano, Graça Pinto, Sónia Correia, Maris Laan, Margus Punab, Ewa Rajpert-De Meyts, Niels Jørgensen, Kristian Almstrup, Csilla G. Krausz & Keith A. Jarvi.De novo mutations are known to play a prominent role in sporadic disorders with reduced fitness. We hypothesize that de novo mutations play an important role in severe male infertility and explain a portion of the genetic causes of this understudied disorder. To test this hypothesis, we utilize trio-based exome sequencing in a cohort of 185 infertile males and their unaffected parents. Following a systematic analysis, 29 of 145 rare (MAF < 0.1%) protein-altering de novo mutations are classified as possibly causative of the male infertility phenotype. We observed a significant enrichment of loss-of-function de novo mutations in loss-of-function-intolerant genes (p-value = 1.00 × 10−5) in infertile men compared to controls. Additionally, we detected a significant increase in predicted pathogenic de novo missense mutations affecting missense-intolerant genes (p-value = 5.01 × 10−4) in contrast to predicted benign de novo mutations. One gene we identify, RBM5, is an essential regulator of male germ cell pre-mRNA splicing and has been previously implicated in male infertility in mice. In a follow-up study, 6 rare pathogenic missense mutations affecting this gene are observed in a cohort of 2,506 infertile patients, whilst we find no such mutations in a cohort of 5,784 fertile men (p-value = 0.03). Our results provide evidence for the role of de novo mutations in severe male infertility and point to new candidate genes affecting fertility.This project was funded by The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (918-15-667) to J.A.V. as well as an Investigator Award in Science from the Wellcome Trust (209451) to J.A.V. a grant from the Catherine van Tussenbroek Foundation to M.S.O. a grant from MERCK to R.S. a UUKi Rutherford Fund Fellowship awarded to B.J.H. and the German Research Foundation Clinical Research Unit “Male Germ Cells” (DFG, CRU326) to C.F. and F.T. This project was also supported in part by funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1120356) to M.K.O.B., by grants from the National Institutes of Health of the United States of America (R01HD078641 to D.F.C. and K.I.A., P50HD096723 to D.F.C.) and from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BB/S008039/1) to D.J.E.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17 : analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. Methods We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. Findings The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. Interpretation By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND: Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. METHODS: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. FINDINGS: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4–19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2–59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5–49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1–70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7–54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3–75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5–51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9–88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3–238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6–42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2–5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. INTERPRETATION: This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4 (62.3 (55.1�70.8) million) to 6.4 (58.3 (47.6�70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization�s Global Nutrition Target of <5 in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2 (30 (22.8�38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0 (55.5 (44.8�67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s)

A century of trends in adult human height

Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3-19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8-144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries