Free Cash Flows and Price Momentum

This study investigates the role of free cash flows and (cross-sectional and time-series) price momentum in predicting future stock returns. Past returns and free cash flows each positively predict future stock returns after controlling for the other, suggesting that cash flows and momentum both contain valuable and distinctive information about future stock returns. A strategy of buying past winners with high free cash flows and shorting past losers with low free cash flows significantly outperforms the traditional momentum trading strategy. The enhanced performance is not sensitive to investor sentiment, time variations, or transaction costs. Further analysis shows that the incremental cash flow effects are largely attributable to net distributions to equity/debt holders. Overall, our findings shed light on the role of corporate fundamentals in technical trading strategies

Association Signals Unveiled by a Comprehensive Gene Set Enrichment Analysis of Dental Caries Genome-Wide Association Studies

Gene set-based analysis of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data has recently emerged as a useful approach to examine the joint effects of multiple risk loci in complex human diseases or phenotypes. Dental caries is a common, chronic, and complex disease leading to a decrease in quality of life worldwide. In this study, we applied the approaches of gene set enrichment analysis to a major dental caries GWAS dataset, which consists of 537 cases and 605 controls. Using four complementary gene set analysis methods, we analyzed 1331 Gene Ontology (GO) terms collected from the Molecular Signatures Database (MSigDB). Setting false discovery rate (FDR) threshold as 0.05, we identified 13 significantly associated GO terms. Additionally, 17 terms were further included as marginally associated because they were top ranked by each method, although their FDR is higher than 0.05. In total, we identified 30 promising GO terms, including 'Sphingoid metabolic process,' 'Ubiquitin protein ligase activity,' 'Regulation of cytokine secretion,' and 'Ceramide metabolic process.' These GO terms encompass broad functions that potentially interact and contribute to the oral immune response related to caries development, which have not been reported in the standard single marker based analysis. Collectively, our gene set enrichment analysis provided complementary insights into the molecular mechanisms and polygenic interactions in dental caries, revealing promising association signals that could not be detected through single marker analysis of GWAS data. © 2013 Wang et al

Tracking echovirus eleven outbreaks in Guangdong, China

In April 2019, a suspect cluster of enterovirus cases was reported in a neonatology department in Guangdong, China, resulting in five deaths. We aimed to investigate the pathogen profiles in fatal cases, the circulation and transmission pattern of the viruses by combining metatranscriptomic, phylogenetic, and epidemiological analyses. Metatranscriptomic sequencing was used to characterize the enteroviruses. Clinical and environmental surveillance in the local population was performed to understand the prevalence and genetic diversity of the viruses in the local population. The possible source(s), evolution, transmission, and recombination of the viruses were investigated by incorporating genomes from the current outbreak, from local retrospective surveillance, and from public databases. Metatranscriptomic analysis identified Echovirus 11 (E11) in three fatal cases. Seroprevalence of neutralization antibody to E11 was 35 to 44 per cent in 3–15 age groups of general population, and the viruses were associated with various clinical symptoms. From the viral phylogeny, nosocomial transmissions were identified and all E11 2019 outbreak strains were closely related with E11 strains circulating in local population 2017–19. Frequent recombination occurred among the 2019 Guangdong E11 outbreak strains and various genotypes in enterovirus B species. This study provides an example of combining advanced genetic technology and epidemiological surveillance in pathogen diagnosis, source(s), and transmission tracing during an infectious disease outbreak. The result highlights the hidden E11 circulation and the risk of viral transmission and infection in the young age population in China. Frequent recombination between Guangdong-like strains and other enterovirus genotypes also implies the prevalence of these emerging E11 strains

Investigational new drug enabling angiotensin oral-delivery studies to attenuate pulmonary hypertension

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a deadly and uncurable disease characterized by remodeling of the pulmonary vasculature and increased pulmonary artery pressure. Angiotensin Converting Enzyme 2 (ACE2) and its product, angiotensin-(1-7) [ANG-(1-7)] were expressed in lettuce chloroplasts to facilitate affordable oral drug delivery. Lyophilized lettuce cells were stable up to 28 months at ambient temperature with proper folding, assembly of CTB-ACE2/ANG-(1-7) and functionality. When the antibiotic resistance gene was removed, Ang1-7 expression was stable in subsequent generations in marker-free transplastomic lines. Oral gavage of monocrotaline-induced PAH rats resulted in dose-dependent delivery of ANG-(1-7) and ACE2 in plasma/tissues and PAH development was attenuated with decreases in right ventricular (RV) hypertrophy, RV systolic pressure, total pulmonary resistance and pulmonary artery remodeling. Such attenuation correlated well with alterations in the transcription of Ang-(1-7) receptor MAS and angiotensin II receptor AGTRI as well as IL-1β and TGF-β1. Toxicology studies showed that both male and female rats tolerated ~10-fold ACE2/ANG-(1-7) higher than efficacy dose. Plant cell wall degrading enzymes enhanced plasma levels of orally delivered protein drug bioencapsulated within plant cells. Efficient attenuation of PAH with no toxicity augurs well for clinical advancement of the first oral protein therapy to prevent/treat underlying pathology for this disease

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

Review of advanced road materials, structures, equipment, and detection technologies

As a vital and integral component of transportation infrastructure, pavement has a direct and tangible impact on socio-economic sustainability. In recent years, an influx of groundbreaking and state-of-the-art materials, structures, equipment, and detection technologies related to road engineering have continually and progressively emerged, reshaping the landscape of pavement systems. There is a pressing and growing need for a timely summarization of the current research status and a clear identification of future research directions in these advanced and evolving technologies. Therefore, Journal of Road Engineering has undertaken the significant initiative of introducing a comprehensive review paper with the overarching theme of “advanced road materials, structures, equipment, and detection technologies”. This extensive and insightful review meticulously gathers and synthesizes research findings from 39 distinguished scholars, all of whom are affiliated with 19 renowned universities or research institutions specializing in the diverse and multidimensional field of highway engineering. It covers the current state and anticipates future development directions in the four major and interconnected domains of road engineering: advanced road materials, advanced road structures and performance evaluation, advanced road construction equipment and technology, and advanced road detection and assessment technologies

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements

Impact of opioid-free analgesia on pain severity and patient satisfaction after discharge from surgery: multispecialty, prospective cohort study in 25 countries

Background: Balancing opioid stewardship and the need for adequate analgesia following discharge after surgery is challenging. This study aimed to compare the outcomes for patients discharged with opioid versus opioid-free analgesia after common surgical procedures.Methods: This international, multicentre, prospective cohort study collected data from patients undergoing common acute and elective general surgical, urological, gynaecological, and orthopaedic procedures. The primary outcomes were patient-reported time in severe pain measured on a numerical analogue scale from 0 to 100% and patient-reported satisfaction with pain relief during the first week following discharge. Data were collected by in-hospital chart review and patient telephone interview 1 week after discharge.Results: The study recruited 4273 patients from 144 centres in 25 countries; 1311 patients (30.7%) were prescribed opioid analgesia at discharge. Patients reported being in severe pain for 10 (i.q.r. 1-30)% of the first week after discharge and rated satisfaction with analgesia as 90 (i.q.r. 80-100) of 100. After adjustment for confounders, opioid analgesia on discharge was independently associated with increased pain severity (risk ratio 1.52, 95% c.i. 1.31 to 1.76; P < 0.001) and re-presentation to healthcare providers owing to side-effects of medication (OR 2.38, 95% c.i. 1.36 to 4.17; P = 0.004), but not with satisfaction with analgesia (beta coefficient 0.92, 95% c.i. -1.52 to 3.36; P = 0.468) compared with opioid-free analgesia. Although opioid prescribing varied greatly between high-income and low- and middle-income countries, patient-reported outcomes did not.Conclusion: Opioid analgesia prescription on surgical discharge is associated with a higher risk of re-presentation owing to side-effects of medication and increased patient-reported pain, but not with changes in patient-reported satisfaction. Opioid-free discharge analgesia should be adopted routinely