Robust Agent Based Distribution System Restoration with Uncertainty in Loads in Smart Grids

This paper presents a comprehensive robust distributed intelligent control for optimum self-healing activities in smart distribution systems considering the uncertainty in loads. The presented agent based framework obviates the requirements for a central control method and improves the reliability of the self-healing mechanism. Agents possess three characteristics including local views, decentralizations and autonomy. The message, exchanged among neighboring agents, is used to develop a global information discovery algorithm and updates the topology information of out-of-service areas, available supply capacity and routing information. Fuzzy description is employed to take into account the uncertainties of measurements in which are exchanged between agents. Moreover, to find the optimal restoration plan, incorporating the discovered data, a routing problem is developed as a fuzzy binary linear optimization problem. This problem is approached by a novel method using a specific ranking function. Finally, robustness and applicability of the proposed self-healing method is tested on two standard case studies. The obtained results emphasize that ignoring the uncertainties may lead to non-realistic solutions

Use of data-mining to support real-world cost analyses: An example using HER2-positive breast cancer in Iran

INTRODUCTION: Patient registries play an important role in obtaining real-world evidence of the cost-effectiveness of treatments. However, their implementation is costly and sometimes infeasible in many middle-income countries (MICs). We explored the combination of data-mining and a large claims database to estimate the direct healthcare costs of HER2-positive breast cancer (BC) treatment in Iran and the fraction of total costs from trastuzumab use.METHOD: We performed a retrospective analysis of claims data from the Iran Social Security Organization, a health insurer which covers approximately 50%(~40 million) of the Iranian population, in the period of 21/03/2011-20/03/2014. A data-mining algorithm using R software and validated using patient dossiers in the Cancer Research Center identified 1295 patients and divided them into the three main HER2-positive breast cancer stages (early, loco-regional and advanced). A payer perspective was used to calculate the absolute and relative direc

i Sexual function in breast cancer patients: a prospective study from Iran

Background: Sexual function in patients with breast cancer especially in younger patients is an important issue from clinical and psychosocial perspectives. This study aimed to assess sexual function among Iranian breast cancer patients. Methods: This was a prospective study of sexual function in breast cancer patients attending the Cancer Institute of Iran. Sexual function was assessed using the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) at two points in time: baseline (pre-treatment) and after completion of cancer treatment at follow-up visits (post-treatment). Pre- and posttreatment data were compared. In addition logistic regression analysis was performed to find out factors that contributing to post-treatment sexual dysfunction. Results: In all 277 breast cancer patients were approached. Of these, 231 patients (83%) were sexually active and data for 216 patients (93.5 % of sexually active patients) were available at pre-and post-treatment. Overall pre- and post-treatment sexual dysfunction was found to be 52 % and 84%, respectively indicating a significant deterioration in sexual function among breast cancer patients. The results obtained from multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that younger age [OR = 0.95, 95 % CI = 0.93-0.98; P = 0.04], receiving endocrine therapy [OR = 3.34, 95% CI = 1.37-7.91; P = 0.007] and poor sexual function at pre-treatment [OR = 12.3, 95 % CI = 3.93-39.0; P < 0.0001

Safety and effectiveness of high-dose vitamin C in patients with COVID-19: a randomized open-label clinical trial

Background: Vitamin C is an essential water-soluble nutrient that functions as a key antioxidant and has been proven to be effective for boosting immunity. In this study, we aimed to assess the efficacy of adding high-dose intravenous vitamin C (HDIVC) to the regimens for patients with severe COVID-19 disease. Methods: An open-label, randomized, and controlled trial was conducted on patients with severe COVID-19 infection. The case and control treatment groups each consisted of 30 patients. The control group received lopinavir/ritonavir and hydroxychloroquine and the case group received HDIVC (6 g daily) added to the same regimen. Results: There were no statistically significant differences between two groups with respect to age and gender, laboratory results, and underlying diseases. The mean body temperature was significantly lower in the case group on the 3rd day of hospitalization (p = 0.001). Peripheral capillary oxygen saturations (SpO2) measured at the 3rd day of hospitalization was also higher in the case group receiving HDIVC (p = 0.014). The median length of hospitalization in the case group was significantly longer than the control group (8.5 days vs. 6.5 days) (p = 0.028). There was no significant difference in SpO2 levels at discharge time, the length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and mortality between the two groups. Conclusions: We did not find significantly better outcomes in the group who were treated with HDIVC in addition to the main treatment regimen at discharge. Trial registration irct.ir (IRCT20200411047025N1), April 14, 2020 © 2021, The Author(s)

The relation between smokeless tobacco and cancer in Northern Europe and North America. A commentary on differences between the conclusions reached by two recent reviews

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Smokeless tobacco is an alternative for smokers who want to quit but require nicotine. Reliable evidence on its effects is needed. Boffetta et al. and ourselves recently reviewed the evidence on cancer, based on Scandinavian and US studies. Boffetta et al. claimed a significant 60–80% increase for oropharyngeal, oesophageal and pancreatic cancer, and a non-significant 20% increase for lung cancer, data for other cancers being "too sparse". We found increases less than 15% for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer, and a significant 36% increase for oropharyngeal cancer, which disappeared in recent studies. We found no association with stomach, bladder and all cancers combined, using data as extensive as that for oesophageal, pancreatic and lung cancer. We explain these differences.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For those cancers Boffetta et al. considered, we compared the methods, studies and risk estimates used in the two reviews.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One major reason for the difference is our more consistent approach in choosing between study-specific never smoker and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates. Another is our use of derived as well as published estimates. We included more studies, and avoided estimates for data subsets. Boffetta et al. also included some clearly biased or not smoking-adjusted estimates. For pancreatic cancer, their review included significantly increased never smoker estimates in one study and combined smoker/non-smoker estimates in another, omitting a combined estimate in the first study and a never smoker estimate in the second showing no increase. For oesophageal cancer, never smoker results from one study showing a marked increase for squamous cell carcinoma were included, but corresponding results for adenocarcinoma and combined smoker/non-smoker results for both cell types showing no increase were excluded. For oropharyngeal cancer, Boffetta et al. included a markedly elevated estimate that was not smoking-adjusted, and overlooked the lack of association in recent studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When conducting meta-analyses, all relevant data should be used, with clear rules governing the choice between alternative estimates. A systematic meta-analysis using pre-defined procedures and all relevant data gives a lower estimate of cancer risk from smokeless tobacco (probably 1–2% of that from smoking) than does the previous review by Boffetta et al.</p

Association of a Deletion of GSTT2B with an Altered Risk of Oesophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a South African Population: A Case-Control Study

Polymorphisms in the Glutathione S-transferase genes are associated with altered risks in many cancers, but their role in oesophageal cancer is unclear. Recently a 37-kb deletion polymorphism of GSTT2B that reduces expression of GSTT2 has been described. We evaluated the influence of the GSTT1 and GSTT2B deletion polymorphisms, and the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism (rs1695) on susceptibility to oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) in the Black and Mixed Ancestry populations of South Africa.The GSTT1, GSTT2B and GSTP1 variants were genotyped in 562 OSCC cases and 907 controls, and tested for association with OSCC and for interaction with smoking and alcohol consumption. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the deletions at GSTT1 and GSTT2B was determined, and the haplotypes tested for association with OSCC. Neither the GSTT1 deletion nor the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism was associated with OSCC risk in the Black or Mixed Ancestry populations. The GSTT2B deletion was not associated with OSCC risk in the Black population, but was associated with reduced risk of OSCC in the Mixed Ancestry population (OR=0.71; 95% CI 0.57-0.90, p=0.004). Case-only analysis showed no interaction between the GST polymorphisms and smoking or alcohol consumption. LD between the neighboring GSTT1 and GSTT2B deletions was low in both populations (r(2)(Black)=0.04; r(2)(MxA)=0.07), thus these deletions should be assessed independently for effects on disease risk.Although there was no association between the GSTT1 deletion polymorphism or the GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism with OSCC, our results suggest that the presence of the recently described GSTT2B deletion may have a protective effect on the risk of OSCC in the Mixed Ancestry South African population. This is the first report of the contribution of the GSTT2B deletion to cancer risk

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe