Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Development of cordycepin formulations for preclinical and clinical studies

There is extensive literature on in vivo studies with cordycepin but these studies were generally conducted without validation of the various formulations, especially in terms of the solubility of cordycepin in the dosing vehicles used. Cordycepin is a promising drug candidate in multiple therapeutic areas and there is a growing interest in studies aimed at assessing the pharmacological activity of this compound in relevant animal disease models. It is likely that many reported in vivo studies used formulations in which cordycepin was incompletely soluble. This can potentially confound the interpretation of pharmacokinetics and efficacy results. Furthermore, the presence of particles in intravenously administered suspension can cause adverse effects and should be avoided. Here we present the results from our development of simple and readily applicable formulations of cordycepin based on quantitative solubility assessment. Homogeneous solutions of cordycepin were prepared in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS) at different pH levels, suitable as formulations for both intravenously and oral administration. For the purpose of high-dose oral administration we also developed propylene glycol (PPG)-based vehicles in which cordycepin is completely soluble. The stability of the newly developed formulations was also assessed, as well the feasibility of their sterilisation by filtration. Additionally, an HPLC-UV method for the determination of cordycepin in the formulations, which may also be useful for other purposes, was developed and validated. Our study could provide useful information for improvement of future preclinical and clinical studies involving cordycepin

Dimerization of Translationally Controlled Tumor Protein Is Essential For Its Cytokine-Like Activity

BACKGROUND:Translationally Controlled Tumor Protein (TCTP) found in nasal lavage fluids of allergic patients was named IgE-dependent histamine-releasing factor (HRF). Human recombinant HRF (HrHRF) has been recently reported to be much less effective than HRF produced from activated mononuclear cells (HRFmn). METHODS AND FINDINGS:We found that only NH(2)-terminal truncated, but not C-terminal truncated, TCTP shows cytokine releasing activity compared to full-length TCTP. Interestingly, only NH(2)-terminal truncated TCTP, unlike full-length TCTP, forms dimers through intermolecular disulfide bonds. We tested the activity of dimerized full-length TCTP generated by fusing it to rabbit Fc region. The untruncated-full length protein (Fc-HrTCTP) was more active than HrTCTP in BEAS-2B cells, suggesting that dimerization of TCTP, rather than truncation, is essential for the activation of TCTP in allergic responses. We used confocal microscopy to evaluate the affinity of TCTPs to its putative receptor. We detected stronger fluorescence in the plasma membrane of BEAS-2B cells incubated with Del-N11TCTP than those incubated with rat recombinant TCTP (RrTCTP). Allergenic activity of Del-N11TCTP prompted us to see whether the NH(2)-terminal truncated TCTP can induce allergic airway inflammation in vivo. While RrTCTP had no influence on airway inflammation, Del-N11TCTP increased goblet cell hyperplasia in both lung and rhinal cavity. The dimerized protein was found in sera from allergic patients, and bronchoalveolar lavage fluids from airway inflamed mice. CONCLUSIONS:Dimerization of TCTP seems to be essential for its cytokine-like activity. Our study has potential to enhance the understanding of pathogenesis of allergic disease and provide a target for allergic drug development

Prominent Bone Loss Mediated by RANKL and IL-17 Produced by CD4+ T Cells in TallyHo/JngJ Mice

Increasing evidence that decreased bone density and increased rates of bone fracture are associated with abnormal metabolic states such as hyperglycemia and insulin resistance indicates that diabetes is a risk factor for osteoporosis. In this study, we observed that TallyHo/JngJ (TH) mice, a polygenic model of type II diabetes, spontaneously developed bone deformities with osteoporotic features. Female and male TH mice significantly gained more body weight than control C57BL/6 mice upon aging. Interestingly, bone density was considerably decreased in male TH mice, which displayed hyperglycemia. The osteoblast-specific bone forming markers osteocalcin and osteoprotegerin were decreased in TH mice, whereas osteoclast-driven bone resorption markers such as IL-6 and RANKL were significantly elevated in the bone marrow and blood of TH mice. In addition, RANKL expression was prominently increased in CD4+ T cells of TH mice upon T cell receptor stimulation, which was in accordance with enhanced IL-17 production. IL-17 production in CD4+ T cells was directly promoted by treatment with leptin while IFN-γ production was not. Moreover, blockade of IFN-γ further increased RANKL expression and IL-17 production in TH-CD4+ T cells. In addition, the osteoporotic phenotype of TH mice was improved by treatment with alendronate. These results strongly indicate that increased leptin in TH mice may act in conjunction with IL-6 to preferentially stimulate IL-17 production in CD4+ T cells and induce RANKL-mediated osteoclastogenesis. Accordingly, we propose that TH mice could constitute a beneficial model for osteoporosis

Common Gene Therapy Viral Vectors Do Not Efficiently Penetrate Sputum from Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Norwalk virus and human papilloma virus, two viruses that infect humans at mucosal surfaces, have been found capable of rapidly penetrating human mucus secretions. Viral vectors for gene therapy of Cystic Fibrosis (CF) must similarly penetrate purulent lung airway mucus (sputum) to deliver DNA to airway epithelial cells. However, surprisingly little is known about the rates at which gene delivery vehicles penetrate sputum, including viral vectors used in clinical trials for CF gene therapy. We find that sputum spontaneously expectorated by CF patients efficiently traps two viral vectors commonly used in CF gene therapy trials, adenovirus (d∼80 nm) and adeno-associated virus (AAV serotype 5; d∼20 nm), leading to average effective diffusivities that are ∼3,000-fold and 12,000-fold slower than their theoretical speeds in water, respectively. Both viral vectors are slowed by adhesion, as engineered muco-inert nanoparticles with diameters as large as 200 nm penetrate the same sputum samples at rates only ∼40-fold reduced compared to in pure water. A limited fraction of AAV exhibit sufficiently fast mobility to penetrate physiologically thick sputum layers, likely because of the lower viscous drag and smaller surface area for adhesion to sputum constituents. Nevertheless, poor penetration of CF sputum is likely a major contributor to the ineffectiveness of viral vector based gene therapy in the lungs of CF patients observed to date

Trabecular Reorganization in Consecutive Iliac Crest Biopsies when Switching from Bisphosphonate to Strontium Ranelate Treatment

BACKGROUND: Several agents are available to treat osteoporosis while addressing patient-specific medical needs. Individuals' residual risk to severe fracture may require changes in treatment strategy. Data at osseous cellular and microstructural levels due to a therapy switch between agents with different modes of action are rare. Our study on a series of five consecutively taken bone biopsies from an osteoporotic individual over a six-year period analyzes changes in cellular characteristics, bone microstructure and mineralization caused by a therapy switch from an antiresorptive (bisphosphonate) to a dual action bone agent (strontium ranelate). METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Biopsies were progressively taken from the iliac crest of a female patient. Four biopsies were taken during bisphosphonate therapy and one biopsy was taken after one year of strontium ranelate (SR) treatment. Furthermore, serum bone markers and dual x-ray absorptiometry measurements were acquired. Undecalcified histology was used to assess osteoid parameters and bone turnover. Structural indices and degree of mineralization were determined using microcomputed tomography, quantitative backscattered electron imaging, and combined energy dispersive x-ray/µ-x-ray-fluorescence microanalysis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Microstructural data revealed a notable increase in bone volume fraction after one year of SR treatment compared to the bisphosphonate treatment period. Indices of connectivity density, structure model index and trabecular bone pattern factor were predominantly enhanced indicating that the architectural transformation from trabecular rods to plates was responsible for the bone volume increase and less due to changes in trabecular thickness and number. Administration of SR following bisphosphonates led to a maintained mineralization profile with an uptake of strontium on the bone surface level. Reactivated osteoclasts designed tunneling, hook-like intratrabecular resorption sites. The appearance of tunneling resorption lacunae and the formation of both mini-modeling units and osteon-like structures within increased plate-like cancellous bone mass provides additional information on the mechanisms of strontium ranelate following bisphosphonate treatment, which may deserve special attention when monitoring a treatment switch

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015:a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015.Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores.Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.</p