Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.

Associations and community health workers: analysis and time trends over ten years of training-action

Objective To analyse the profile of the persons and associations that participated in the course, quantify peer education activities and analyse their evolution. Method A quantitative study using an analysis of the course records from 2009 to 2018 was designed for this purpose inside mihsalud program designed to promote health amongst persons in vulnerable situations in the city of Valencia (Spain). It offers a yearly training-action course of community health workers (CHW) that is attended by persons who have been proposed by associations. The associations were defined according to their population (immigrant, local or intercultural) and the CHWs according to gender, country of birth, year of course, association and continuity after training. Means and confidence intervals were calculated at 95% and a bivariate analysis was conducted in order to compare the activities that took place in 2009 to 2013 with those of 2014 to 2018. The time trends were analysed by applying linear regression models that included the different years studied as the dependent variable. Results 201 CHW of 31 nationalities were trained, 81.6% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 75.5-86.7] were women. Eighty-two associations participated, 51.2% (95% CI: 39.9-62.4] worked with culturally diverse populations. Participation by associations (p = .017) and CHWs (p = .377) increased in a statistically significant manner over the years. After the course, 35.3% (95% CI: 28.7-42.4] of the CHWs continued to collaborate voluntarily in the associations. Conclusions The results of the CHW training-action course improve over time given that a significant increase in participation by associations and women can be seen, along with a greater number of activities completed during the training. One effect of this is that CHWs are contracted or carry out voluntary activities in the associations

Effectiveness and Safety of the Sequential Use of a Second and Third Anti-TNF Agent in Patients with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Results from the Eneida Registry

Background: The effectiveness of the switch to another anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) agent is not known. The aim of this study was to analyze the effectiveness and safety of treatment with a second and third anti-TNF drug after intolerance to or failure of a previous anti-TNF agent in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients. Methods: We included patients diagnosed with IBD from the ENEIDA registry who received another anti-TNF after intolerance to or failure of a prior anti-TNF agent. Results: A total of 1122 patients were included. In the short term, remission was achieved in 55% of the patients with the second anti-TNF. The incidence of loss of response was 19% per patient-year with the second anti-TNF. Combination therapy (hazard ratio [HR], 2.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-3; P < 0.0001) and ulcerative colitis vs Crohn''s disease (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1; P = 0.005) were associated with a higher probability of loss of response. Fifteen percent of the patients had adverse events, and 10% had to discontinue the second anti-TNF. Of the 71 patients who received a third anti-TNF, 55% achieved remission. The incidence of loss of response was 22% per patient-year with a third anti-TNF. Adverse events occurred in 7 patients (11%), but only 1 stopped the drug. Conclusions: Approximately half of the patients who received a second anti-TNF achieved remission; nevertheless, a significant proportion of them subsequently lost response. Combination therapy and type of IBD were associated with loss of response. Remission was achieved in almost 50% of patients who received a third anti-TNF; nevertheless, a significant proportion of them subsequently lost response

Relationship between olive oil consumption and ankle-brachial pressure index in a population at high cardiovascular risk

The aim of this study was to ascertain the association between the consumption of different categories of edible olive oils (virgin olive oils and olive oil) and olive pomace oil and ankle-brachial pressure index (ABI) in participants in the PREDIMED-Plus study, a trial of lifestyle modification for weight and cardiovascular event reduction in individuals with overweight/obesity harboring the metabolic syndrome. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis of the PREDIMED-Plus trial. Consumption of any category of olive oil and olive pomace oil was assessed through a validated food-frequency questionnaire. Multivariable linear regression models were fitted to assess associations between olive oil consumption and ABI. Additionally, ABI ≤1 was considered as the outcome in logistic models with different categories of olive oil and olive pomace oil as exposure. Results: Among 4330 participants, the highest quintile of total olive oil consumption (sum of all categories of olive oil and olive pomace oil) was associated with higher mean values of ABI (beta coefficient: 0.014, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.002, 0.027) (p for trend = 0.010). Logistic models comparing the consumption of different categories of olive oils, olive pomace oil and ABI ≤1 values revealed an inverse association between virgin olive oils consumption and the likelihood of a low ABI (odds ratio [OR] 0.73, 95% CI [0.56, 0.97]), while consumption of olive pomace oil was positively associated with a low ABI (OR 1.22 95% CI [1.00, 1.48]). Conclusions: In a Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk, total olive oil consumption was associated with a higher mean ABI. These results suggest that olive oil consumption may be beneficial for peripheral artery disease prevention, but longitudinal studies are needed

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

Combination of searches for Higgs boson pairs in pp collisions at \sqrts = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This letter presents a combination of searches for Higgs boson pair production using up to 36.1 fb(-1) of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy root s = 13 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The combination is performed using six analyses searching for Higgs boson pairs decaying into the b (b) over barb (b) over bar, b (b) over barW(+)W(-), b (b) over bar tau(+)tau(-), W+W-W+W-, b (b) over bar gamma gamma and W+W-gamma gamma final states. Results are presented for non-resonant and resonant Higgs boson pair production modes. No statistically significant excess in data above the Standard Model predictions is found. The combined observed (expected) limit at 95% confidence level on the non-resonant Higgs boson pair production cross-section is 6.9 (10) times the predicted Standard Model cross-section. Limits are also set on the ratio (kappa(lambda)) of the Higgs boson self-coupling to its Standard Model value. This ratio is constrained at 95% confidence level in observation (expectation) to -5.0 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0 (-5.8 &lt; kappa(lambda) &lt; 12.0). In addition, limits are set on the production of narrow scalar resonances and spin-2 Kaluza-Klein Randall-Sundrum gravitons. Exclusion regions are also provided in the parameter space of the habemus Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and the Electroweak Singlet Model. For complete list of authors see http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physletb.2019.135103</p