2,079 research outputs found

    Exploring constituency-level estimates for the 2017 British general election

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    Most opinion polls conducted during British general election campaigns report on each party’s estimated national vote share. Although of considerable interest, these data do not put the spotlight on the marginal seats, the constituencies targeted by the parties for intensive canvassing; these are where the contest for a majority in the House of Commons is won and lost. There have been some polls covering those constituencies as a whole, but very few of individual constituencies so there was very little reporting of the outcome for each party in those individual constituencies. That changed with the 2017 general election, when three analysts published estimates on the internet of each party’s vote share separately for each constituency and with those data predicted which party would win each seat. This paper explores the veracity of those estimates, finding that although in general terms they accurately represented the relative position of each constituency in the share of each party’s votes, nevertheless their estimates of which marginal seats would be won by each were not as accurate. The implications of such polls, especially as their predictive ability is improved, is discussed

    A branching, positive relief network in the middle member of the Medusae Fossae Formation, Equatorial Mars - evidence for sapping?

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    The Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) is a geological formation comprising three geological units (members) spread across five principal lobes. It dominates a quarter of the longitudinal extent of the equatorial region of Mars. Positive relief features referred to as ‘sinuous ridges' (commonly interpreted as inverted paleoflow channel or valley fills) have been observed in the lowest member of the western MFF, but have not been identified within the central and eastern portions of the formation, in the middle and upper members. This paper presents the identification and analysis of a branching, positive relief system which occurs in the central lobe of the MFF in what appears to be an exposure of the middle member. A simple geomorphological map of the system is presented, from which we have adopted the working hypothesis that this is an inverted fill of a branching fluvial channel or valley system. A suite of morphological and topographic evidence supporting this hypothesis is presented, including analysis of the network using a~15 m per pixel digital terrain model derived from a Context Imager (CTX) stereo image pair. The evidence supporting this hypothesis includes: 1) The local slope and topography of the upper surface of the network are consistent with a contributory network, 2) The braided, fan-like form at the termination of the branching network is consistent in morphology with it being a depositional fan at the end of a fluvial system, 3) The terminal fan and surrounding deposits show layering and polygonization, 4) There is strong association between the lower order branches and amphitheater shaped scarps in the depression walls. We evaluate the possible origins of this fluvial system and suggest that seepage sapping is the most probable. Two possible models for the evolution of the network and related features are presented; both require melt of ice within the MFF to form liquid water. We conclude that at least some portions of the Medusae Fossae Formation, if not the entire formation, were once volatile-rich. Finally, we note that our observations do not rule out the case that this network formed before MFF emplacement, and has since been exhumed. However, this conclusion would suggest that much of the surrounding terrain, currently mapped as middle-member MFF, is not in fact MFF material at all

    Knowledge synthesis of benefits and adverse effects of measles vaccination: the Lasbela balance sheet

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    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In preparation for a cluster-randomized controlled trial of a community intervention to increase the demand for measles vaccination in Lasbela district of Pakistan, a balance sheet summarized published evidence on benefits and possible adverse effects of measles vaccination.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The balance sheet listed: 1) major health conditions associated with measles; 2) the risk among the unvaccinated who contract measles; 3) the risk among the vaccinated; 4) the risk difference between vaccinated and unvaccinated; and 5) the likely net gain from vaccination for each condition.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Two models revealed very different projections of net gain from measles vaccine. A Lasbela-specific combination of low period prevalence of measles among the unvaccinated, medium vaccination coverage and low vaccine efficacy rate, as revealed by the baseline survey, resulted in less-than-expected gains attributable to vaccination. Modelled on estimates where the vaccine had greater efficacy, the gains from vaccination would be more substantial.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Specific local conditions probably explain the low rates among the unvaccinated while the high vaccine failure rate is likely due to weaknesses in the vaccination delivery system. Community perception of these realities may have had some role in household decisions about whether to vaccinate, although the major discouraging factor was inadequate access. The balance sheet may be useful as a communication tool in other circumstances, applied to up-to-date local evidence.</p

    Combined Forward-Backward Asymmetry Measurements in Top-Antitop Quark Production at the Tevatron

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    The CDF and D0 experiments at the Fermilab Tevatron have measured the asymmetry between yields of forward- and backward-produced top and antitop quarks based on their rapidity difference and the asymmetry between their decay leptons. These measurements use the full data sets collected in proton-antiproton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of s=1.96\sqrt s =1.96 TeV. We report the results of combinations of the inclusive asymmetries and their differential dependencies on relevant kinematic quantities. The combined inclusive asymmetry is AFBttˉ=0.128±0.025A_{\mathrm{FB}}^{t\bar{t}} = 0.128 \pm 0.025. The combined inclusive and differential asymmetries are consistent with recent standard model predictions

    Safety, immunogenicity, and reactogenicity of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccines given as fourth-dose boosters following two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or BNT162b2 and a third dose of BNT162b2 (COV-BOOST): a multicentre, blinded, phase 2, randomised trial

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    Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

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    This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

    Juxtaposing BTE and ATE – on the role of the European insurance industry in funding civil litigation

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    One of the ways in which legal services are financed, and indeed shaped, is through private insurance arrangement. Two contrasting types of legal expenses insurance contracts (LEI) seem to dominate in Europe: before the event (BTE) and after the event (ATE) legal expenses insurance. Notwithstanding institutional differences between different legal systems, BTE and ATE insurance arrangements may be instrumental if government policy is geared towards strengthening a market-oriented system of financing access to justice for individuals and business. At the same time, emphasizing the role of a private industry as a keeper of the gates to justice raises issues of accountability and transparency, not readily reconcilable with demands of competition. Moreover, multiple actors (clients, lawyers, courts, insurers) are involved, causing behavioural dynamics which are not easily predicted or influenced. Against this background, this paper looks into BTE and ATE arrangements by analysing the particularities of BTE and ATE arrangements currently available in some European jurisdictions and by painting a picture of their respective markets and legal contexts. This allows for some reflection on the performance of BTE and ATE providers as both financiers and keepers. Two issues emerge from the analysis that are worthy of some further reflection. Firstly, there is the problematic long-term sustainability of some ATE products. Secondly, the challenges faced by policymakers that would like to nudge consumers into voluntarily taking out BTE LEI

    Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

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    Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

    Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

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    Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis
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