Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODErn), to generate cause fractions and cause specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NC Ds) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72.5-74.1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 186% (17.9-19.6), and injuries 8.0% (7.7-8.2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22.7% (21.5-23.9), representing an additional 7.61 million (7. 20-8.01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7.9% (7.08.8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 222% (20.0-24.0) and the death rate by 31.8% (30.1-33.3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2.3% (0-5-4-0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13.7% (12.2-15.1) to 57.9 deaths (55.9-59.2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118.0% (88.8-148.6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36.4% (32.2-40.6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33.6% (31.2-36.1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respirator}, infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990 neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Copyright (C) 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Determinants of blood pressure control amongst hypertensive patients in Northwest Ethiopia

<div><p>Background</p><p>Controlling blood pressure (BP) leads to significant reduction in cardiovascular risks and associated deaths. In Ethiopia, data is scarce about the level and determinants of optimal BP control among hypertensive patients. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of optimal BP control among hypertensive patients attending at a district hospital.</p><p>Methods</p><p>A hospital-based, cross-sectional study was conducted among 392 hypertensive patients who were on treatment and follow-up at a district hospital. A structured questionnaire adopted from WHO approach was prepared to collect the data. Medication adherence was measured by the four-item Morisky Green Levine Scale, with a score ≥3 defined as “good adherence”. Blood pressure was measured, and optimal BP control was 0DEFined as systolic BP < 140 mmHg and diastolic BP<90 mmHg. Both binary and multivariable logistic regressions models were fitted to identify correlates of optimal BP control. All statistical tests were two-sided and a p values <0.05 was considered for statistical significance.</p><p>Results</p><p>The mean age of the participants was 58 years (SD±13 years). Over half (53.8%) were females. Three quarters (77.3%) of the participants were adherent to their medications. The overall proportion of participants with optimally controlled BP was 42.9%.Female sex (Adjusted Odd Ratio(AOR) = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.15, 3.26), age older than 60 years (AOR = 2.95, 95% CI: 1.18, 7.40), consumption of vegetables on most days of the week (AOR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.25, 3.73), physical activity (AOR = 4.85, 95% CI: 2.39, 9.83), and taking less than three drugs per day (AOR = 3.04, 95% CI: 1.51, 6.14) were positively associated with optimally controlled BP. Poor adherence to medications (AOR = 0.18, 95% CI: 0.09, 0.35), having asthma comorbidity (AOR = 0.33, 95% CI:0.12, 0.88) and use of top added salt on a plate (AOR = 0.20, 95% CI:0.11, 0.36) were negatively associated with optimal BP control.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>A higher proportion of hypertensive patients remain with un-controlled BP. Modifiable risk factors including poor adherence to medications, lack of physical exercise, adding salt into meals, being on multiple medications and comorbidities were significantly and independently associated with poor BP control. Evidence-based, adherence-enhancing and healthy life style interventions should be implemented.</p></div

Determinants of birth asphyxia among live birth newborns in University of Gondar referral hospital, northwest Ethiopia: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND:Birth asphyxia, which accounts for 31.6% of all neonatal deaths, is one of the leading causes of such mortality in Ethiopia. Early recognition and management of its contributing factors would modify the problem. Thus, this study aimed to identify the determinants of birth asphyxia among live births at the University of Gondar Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia. METHODS:A hospital-based unmatched case-control study was conducted from April to July 2017.Cases were newborn babies with an APGAR score of < 7at 5 minutes of birth; controls were newborn babies with an APGAR score of ≥7 at 5 minutes of birth. Every other asphyxiated baby was selected as a case and every 6th non-asphyxiated baby as a control. A pretested structured questionnaire was used to collect data on maternal sociodemographic characteristics. A pretested structured checklist was used to retrieve data on ante-partum, intra-partum, and neonatal factors of both cases and controls. Data were entered using Epi Info 7 and analyzed using SPSS 20. The bivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the relation of each independent variable to the outcome variable. Variables with p values of up to 0.2 in the bivariate analysis were considered for the multiple logistic regression analysis. An adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% CI and p-value of <0.05 was used to identify significant variables associated with birth asphyxia. RESULTS:In this study, prolonged labor (AOR = 2.75, 95% CI: 1.18, 6.94), cesarean section delivery (AOR = 3.58, 95% CI: 1.13, 11.31), meconium stained amniotic fluid (AOR = 7.69, 95% CI: 2.99, 17.70), fetal distress (AOR = 5.74, 95% CI: 1.53, 21.55), and low birth weight (AOR = 7.72, 95% CI: 1.88, 31.68) were factors which significantly increased the odds of birth asphyxia. CONCLUSION:Prolonged labor, cesarean section (CS) delivery, meconium stained amniotic fluid (AF), fetal distress, and low birth weight were the determinants of birth asphyxia. Thus, efforts should be made to improve the quality of intra-partum care services in order to prevent prolonged labor and fetal complications, and to identify and make a strict follow up on mothers with meconium stained amniotic fluid

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy and associated factors among HIV positive adults attending care and treatment in University of Gondar Referral Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Abstract Background Antiretroviral therapy has an impressive clinical effect on the human immunodeficiency virus although its effectiveness depends mainly on the adherence of patients to the therapy. Therefore, this study aimed to assess adherence status and associated factors of antiretroviral therapy among HIV infected adults on ART at the University of Gondar Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia. Methods An institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted from May to June 2015. The systematic random sampling technique was used to select 440 study participants. Data collected using an intervieweradministered questionnaire was entered using EPI Info version 7 and analyzed using SPSS version 20. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done. In the multivariate analysis, variables with P-value ≤ 0.05 were considered statistically significant between independent variables and the outcome variable (medication adherence). Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval was used to determine the strength and direction of the association. Results A total of 440 participants were included in the study. The mean age of participants was 36.09 (SD ± 8.09) years. The overall rate of adherence to ART was 88.2% (95% CI = 85.2, 91.1). Urban residence (AOR = 6.99, 95% CI: 2.30, 21.27), no co-morbidity (AOR = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.05, 0.33), knowledge about HIV and ART (AOR = 7.54, 95% CI: 2.69, 21.15), and disclosed HIV status to partners (AOR = 3.65 (1.06, 12.61) and CD4 count of ≥ 500mm3 (AOR = 3.91, 95% CI: 1.19, 12.81) were significantly associated with adherence. Conclusion In this study, the rate of adherence to antiretroviral therapy was low compared to WHO standard.. Prevention of co-morbidities, improving knowledge through health education, providing strong drug adherence counseling with more emphasis on the rural community, and encouraging HIV positive individuals to disclose their HIV status are crucial for ART adherence

Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of factors associated with optimal blood pressure control of hypertensive patients in Debre Tabor Hospital, ANRS, Northwest Ethiopia, May 2015 (n = 392).

<p>Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis of factors associated with optimal blood pressure control of hypertensive patients in Debre Tabor Hospital, ANRS, Northwest Ethiopia, May 2015 (n = 392).</p

Anti-hypertensive drugs and level of adherence for medications (n = 392).

<p>Anti-hypertensive drugs and level of adherence for medications (n = 392).</p

Sociodemographic characteristics of participants (n = 392).

<p>Sociodemographic characteristics of participants (n = 392).</p

Time to immunologic recovery and determinant factors among adults who initiated ART in Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, northwest Ethiopia

Abstract Background CD4 cells are the major targets for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and treatment with Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) influences the CD4 cell count of HIV patients. In addition to ART, the time required to reach normal range of CD4 counts (500 cells/mm3) can be affected by clinical, socio-demographic, and behavioral factors. This retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine the incidence of having the normal range of CD4 cell counts and factors that affect the time required to reach this normal range among adult HIV patients who initiated into ART. Methods Data of 4 years were retrospectively retrieved from routinely registered characteristics of 937 ART users enrolled in 2010. Survival time until immunologic recovery and its determinant factors were examined using the frailty model with different parametric distributions alternatively. Results Most (80.8%) of the ART attendants had CD4 cell count of 200 cells/mm3 or less at initiation. The overall incidence rate of immunologic recovery was 12.67 persons per 1000 person-months (95% CI 11.30, 14.20). The dependency of frailties of immunologic recovery by residence was statistically significant (Theta = 0.05, p value = 0.006). Baseline age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR) = 0.98, 95% CI 0.97, 0.99), baseline CD4 count (AHR = 1.006, 95% CI 1.005, 1.008), and female sex (AHR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.03, 1.73) were significantly associated with shorter survival time for immunologic recovery. Conclusion Higher baseline CD4 count, lower baseline age, and female sex were positively associated with the time to immunologic recovery, which also dependent on proximity/residence of ART users. Therefore, further scale up of ART services with due emphasis to patients with low CD4 count at baseline particularly for male and older ART users are recommended to reach the normal range of CD4 count in a shorter time of treatment