Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2\ub75th percentile and 100 as the 97\ub75th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59\ub74 (IQR 35\ub74–67\ub73), ranging from a low of 11\ub76 (95% uncertainty interval 9\ub76–14\ub70) to a high of 84\ub79 (83\ub71–86\ub77). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of 'leaving no one behind', it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. METHODS: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

© 2018 The Author(s). Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing

Quality of life of breast cancer patients in Amhara region, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional study.

BackgroundAlthough breast cancer has a markedly higher incidence in developed countries, seven out of ten deaths occur in developing countries, including Ethiopia. However, there is a limited information on the quality of life (QoL) among breast cancer patients in Ethiopia, notably in the Amhara region. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the QoL and its associated factors among patients with breast cancer in the Amhara Region, Ethiopia.MethodsAn institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted from 25th March 2019 to 7th July 2019. A systematically selected sample of 256 breast cancer patients were participated in the study. A standardized interviewer-administered Amharic version questionnaire was used to collect the data. We used the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer quality of life questionnaire core 30 (EORTC QLQ C30) and breast cancer supplementary measure (QLQ-BR23) to measure QoL. The data were analyzed by SPSS version 23. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify the predictors of QoL. The adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported to show the strength of the association.ResultsSixty-eight percent of breast cancer patients had poor QoL (68.4%; 95% CI: 62.5-73.8). The mean score of QoL was 70.6 (standard deviation (SD) ±13.9; 95% CI: 69.0-72.4). All functional component scores were less than 75 on the symptom scale. Diarrhea (11.6), constipation (17.5), and dyspnea (24.7) were less noticeable symptoms. Being out of marriage (AOR = 2.59, 95% CI: 1.32-5.07), being poor (AOR = 2.39, 95%CI: 1.32-5.03), being non-housewife (AOR = 3.25, 95% CI: 1.16-7.22), and being complaints of dyspnea (AOR = 3.48, 95% CI: 1.79-6.79), and insomnia (AOR = 2.03, 95% CI: 1.05-3.91) were significantly associated with QoL.ConclusionsThe proportion of poor QoL among breast cancer patients was high. Health care professionals should give attention to breast cancer patients who are out of marriage, poor and non-housewife while offering the recommended treatment courses

Health-related quality of life and associated factors among family caregivers of patients with cancer in oncologic centers of Northwest Ethiopia.

BackgroundProviding care for individuals dealing with long-term illnesses like cancer demands significant amounts of time, energy, and emotional investment, potentially resulting in a challenging and overwhelming quality of life for those providing the care.ObjectiveThe purpose of this study was to assess the level of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and associated factors among family caregivers of patients with cancer in oncologic centers of Northwest Ethiopia.MethodA cross-sectional study was conducted among 412 family caregivers of patients with cancer who were following treatment at oncologic centers in Northwest Ethiopia from August to October 2023. Systematic random sampling was used to enroll study participants. Epi-data version 4.6.1 and SPSS version 26 were used for data entry and analysis, respectively. The relationship between quality of life and independent variables was examined using linear regression. Statistical significance was determined for variables having a p-value of less than 0.05 at a 95% confidence range.ResultA total of 412 eligible caregivers were included in the study out of 422 approached samples, yielding a 97.6% response rate. The mean score of the overall Quality of Life Brief-Scale Version was 52.7 ± 9.57. Being Spouse (β = -3.39; 95% CI: -6.49, -0.29), presence of chronic illness (β = -3.43; 95% CI: -5.56, -1.31), depression, (β = -2.55; 95% CI: -4.34, -0.75), anxiety (β = -3.27; 95% CI: -5.22, -1.32),and social support, (β = -3.61; 95% CI: -6.20, -1.02) were negatively associated with quality of life.Conclusion and recommendationIn this study, the psychological domain had the lowest mean score. Caregivers being as spouse, who were with chronic illness, manifested depression and anxiety and had a poor social support needs attention and support to improve HRQoL

Clinical competency and associated factors among undergraduate nursing students studying in universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia, 2021

Background: Clinical practice is the means by which nursing students learn to apply the theory, facilitating integration of theoretical knowledge and practical skill in the clinical setting which becomes arts and science of profession. This correlation of theory and practice, and the building of meaningful experience, take place during clinical practice in the health care service. Even though, nursing students need to have clinical competency during practical setting, there were little available evidences regarding to their competency status in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to assess magnitude of clinical competency and its predictors among undergraduate nursing students studying in universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia in 2021 G C. Methods: Multi-centered institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted among 414 undergraduate nursing students studying in eight universities of Southern regional state of Ethiopia in 2021 academic year. Systematic random sampling technique after proportional allocation to each selected university was used to select the study participants. Data were collected using pretested structured questionnaire by face to face interview after written informed consent was obtained from each participant. Data were cleaned, coded and entered into Epidata version 3.01 and analyzed using statistical package for social science (SPSS) software version 26. Descriptive statistic for all variables and bi-variable and multi-variables logistic regression analysis to identify factors associated with clinical competency was computed and expressed in odds ratio. The result was presented in the form of text, tables and figures and those variables with P-value of <0.05 in multivariable analysis were declared as statistically significant. Result: From 423 total calculated sample sizes, 414 of them were participated in this study giving a response rate of 97.8%. From those participants, 248 (59.9%) of them has clinical competency [95% CI: (55.18%, 64.62%)]. In multivariable analysis, studying in post basic program [AOR: 5.58], conducive clinical learning environment [AOR: 4.10], good staff-student interaction [AOR: 7.44], satisfaction [AOR: 20.66] and positive attitude towards clinical practice [AOR: 2.49] were factors significantly associated with clinical competency. Conclusion: In this study, the overall magnitude of clinical competency was found to be unsatisfactory (59.9%). Studying in private program, non-conducive clinical learning environment, poor staff-student interaction, low satisfaction and negative attitude towards clinical practice were identified as factors associated with clinical incompetency. Policy makers, universities and teaching health facilities need to work collaboratively to create nurses with clinical competency by focusing on proper screening to select candidates for studying in private program, creating conducive clinical learning environment, integrating students with clinical staffs to facilitate learning and positive attitude change of students towards their profession to increase level of satisfaction

Showing department among DMU SMCHS students on mental distress North West, Ethiopia, 2021 (N = 461).

Showing department among DMU SMCHS students on mental distress North West, Ethiopia, 2021 (N = 461).</p

Showing magnitude of mental distress among DMU school SMCHS students on mental distress, North West, Ethiopia, 2021 (N = 461).

Showing magnitude of mental distress among DMU school SMCHS students on mental distress, North West, Ethiopia, 2021 (N = 461).</p

Schematic presentation of sampling technique for mental distress and associated factors among SMCHS students at DMU, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021.

P = Pharmacy, M = Medicine, HI = health informatics, N = nursing, ML = Medical laboratory, P = Public health, E = enviromental health, N = nutrition, M = Midwifery, A = Anesthesia.</p

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