Humans:the missing link in manufacturing simulation?

Computer based discrete event simulation (DES) is one of the most commonly used aids for the design of automotive manufacturing systems. However, DES tools represent machines in extensive detail, while only representing workers as simple resources. This presents a problem when modelling systems with a highly manual work content, such as an assembly line. This paper describes research at Cranfield University, in collaboration with the Ford Motor Company, founded on the assumption that human variation is the cause of a large percentage of the disparity between simulation predictions and real world performance. The research aims to improve the accuracy and reliability of simulation prediction by including models of human factors

Dynamics of Vector-Host Interactions in Avian Communities in Four Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Foci in the Northeastern US

Background: Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) virus (Togaviridae, Alphavirus) is a highly pathogenic mosquito-borne zoonosis that is responsible for occasional outbreaks of severe disease in humans and equines, resulting in high mortality and neurological impairment in most survivors. In the past, human disease outbreaks in the northeastern U.S. have occurred intermittently with no apparent pattern; however, during the last decade we have witnessed recurring annual emergence where EEE virus activity had been historically rare, and expansion into northern New England where the virus had been previously unknown. In the northeastern U.S., EEE virus is maintained in an enzootic cycle involving the ornithophagic mosquito, Culiseta melanura, and wild passerine (perching) birds in freshwater hardwood swamps. However, the identity of key avian species that serve as principal virus reservoir and amplification hosts has not been established. The efficiency with which pathogen transmission occurs within an avian community is largely determined by the relative reservoir competence of each species and by ecological factors that influence contact rates between these avian hosts and mosquito vectors. Methodology and principle findings: Contacts between vector mosquitoes and potential avian hosts may be directly quantified by analyzing the blood meal contents of field-collected specimens. We used PCR-based molecular methods and direct sequencing of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene for profiling of blood meals in Cs. melanura, in an effort to quantify its feeding behavior on specific vertebrate hosts, and to infer epidemiologic implications in four historic EEE virus foci in the northeastern U.S. Avian point count surveys were conducted to determine spatiotemporal host community composition. Of 1,127 blood meals successfully identified to species level, >99% of blood meals were from 65 avian hosts in 27 families and 11 orders, and only seven were from mammalian hosts representing three species. We developed an empirically informed mathematical model for EEE virus transmission using Cs. melanura abundance and preferred and non-preferred avian hosts. To our knowledge this is the first mathematical model for EEE virus, a pathogen with many potential hosts, in the northeastern U.S. We measured strong feeding preferences for a number of avian species based on the proportion of mosquito blood meals identified from these bird species in relation to their observed frequencies. These included: American Robin, Tufted Titmouse, Common Grackle, Wood Thrush, Chipping Sparrow, Black-capped Chickadee, Northern Cardinal, and Warbling Vireo. We found that these bird species, most notably Wood Thrush, play a dominant role in supporting EEE virus amplification. It is also noteworthy that the competence of some of the aforementioned avian species for EEE virus has not been established. Our findings indicate that heterogeneity induced by mosquito host preference, is a key mediator of the epizootic transmission of vector-borne pathogens. Conclusion and significance: Detailed knowledge of the vector-host interactions of mosquito populations in nature is essential for evaluating their vectorial capacity and for assessing the role of individual vertebrates as reservoir hosts involved in the maintenance and amplification of zoonotic agents of human diseases. Our study clarifies the host associations of Cs. melanura in four EEE virus foci in the northeastern U.S., identifies vector host preferences as the most important transmission parameter, and quantifies the contribution of preference-induced contact heterogeneity to enzootic transmission. Our study identifies Wood Thrush, American Robin and a few avian species that may serve as superspreaders of EEE virus. Our study elucidates spatiotemporal host species utilization by Cs. melanura in relation to avian host community. This research provides a basis to better understand the involvement of Cs. melanura and avian hosts in the transmission and ecology of EEE virus and the risk of human infection in virus foci

Rotational IMRT techniques compared to fixed gantry IMRT and Tomotherapy: multi-institutional planning study for head-and-neck cases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent developments enable to deliver rotational IMRT with standard C-arm gantry based linear accelerators. This upcoming treatment technique was benchmarked in a multi-center treatment planning study against static gantry IMRT and rotational IMRT based on a ring gantry for a complex parotid gland sparing head-and-neck technique.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Treatment plans were created for 10 patients with head-and-neck tumours (oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx) using the following treatment planning systems (TPS) for rotational IMRT: Monaco (ELEKTA VMAT solution), Eclipse (Varian RapidArc solution) and HiArt for the helical tomotherapy (Tomotherapy). Planning of static gantry IMRT was performed with KonRad, Pinnacle and Panther DAO based on step&shoot IMRT delivery and Eclipse for sliding window IMRT. The prescribed doses for the high dose PTVs were 65.1Gy or 60.9Gy and for the low dose PTVs 55.8Gy or 52.5Gy dependend on resection status. Plan evaluation was based on target coverage, conformity and homogeneity, DVHs of OARs and the volume of normal tissue receiving more than 5Gy (V_5Gy). Additionally, the cumulative monitor units (MUs) and treatment times of the different technologies were compared. All evaluation parameters were averaged over all 10 patients for each technique and planning modality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Depending on IMRT technique and TPS, the mean CI values of all patients ranged from 1.17 to 2.82; and mean HI values varied from 0.05 to 0.10. The mean values of the median doses of the spared parotid were 26.5Gy for RapidArc and 23Gy for VMAT, 14.1Gy for Tomo. For fixed gantry techniques 21Gy was achieved for step&shoot+KonRad, 17.0Gy for step&shoot+Panther DAO, 23.3Gy for step&shoot+Pinnacle and 18.6Gy for sliding window.</p> <p>V_5Gyvalues were lowest for the sliding window IMRT technique (3499 ccm) and largest for RapidArc (5480 ccm). The lowest mean MU value of 408 was achieved by Panther DAO, compared to 1140 for sliding window IMRT.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>All IMRT delivery technologies with their associated TPS provide plans with satisfying target coverage while at the same time respecting the defined OAR criteria. Sliding window IMRT, RapidArc and Tomo techniques resulted in better target dose homogeneity compared to VMAT and step&shoot IMRT. Rotational IMRT based on C-arm linacs and Tomotherapy seem to be advantageous with respect to OAR sparing and treatment delivery efficiency, at the cost of higher dose delivered to normal tissues. The overall treatment plan quality using Tomo seems to be better than the other TPS technology combinations.</p

High Rates of Hepatitis C Virus Reinfection and Spontaneous Clearance of Reinfection in People Who Inject Drugs: A Prospective Cohort Study

Hepatitis C virus reinfection and spontaneous clearance of reinfection were examined in a highly characterisedcohort of 188 people who inject drugs over a five-year period. Nine confirmed reinfections and 17 possiblereinfections were identified (confirmed reinfections were those genetically distinct from the previous infection andpossible reinfections were used to define instances where genetic differences between infections could not beassessed due to lack of availability of hepatitis C virus sequence data). The incidence of confirmed reinfection was28.8 per 100 person-years (PY), 95%CI: 15.0-55.4; the combined incidence of confirmed and possible reinfectionwas 24.6 per 100 PY (95%CI: 16.8-36.1). The hazard of hepatitis C reinfection was approximately double that ofprimary hepatitis C infection; it did not reach statistical significance in confirmed reinfections alone (hazard ratio [HR]:2.45, 95%CI: 0.87-6.86, p=0.089), but did in confirmed and possible hepatitis C reinfections combined (HR: 1.93,95%CI: 1.01-3.69, p=0.047) and after adjustment for the number of recent injecting partners and duration of injecting.In multivariable analysis, shorter duration of injection (HR: 0.91; 95%CI: 0.83-0.98; p=0.019) and multiple recentinjecting partners (HR: 3.12; 95%CI: 1.08-9.00, p=0.035) were independent predictors of possible and confirmedreinfection. Time to spontaneous clearance was shorter in confirmed reinfection (HR: 5.34, 95%CI: 1.67-17.03,p=0.005) and confirmed and possible reinfection (HR: 3.10, 95%CI: 1.10-8.76, p-value=0.033) than primary infection.Nonetheless, 50% of confirmed reinfections and 41% of confirmed or possible reinfections did not spontaneouslyclear.Conclusions: Hepatitis C reinfection and spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C reinfection were observed at highrates, suggesting partial acquired natural immunity to hepatitis C virus. Public health campaigns about the risks ofhepatitis C reinfection are required

Does oculomotor inhibition of return influence fixation probability during scene search?

Oculomotor inhibition of return (IOR) is believed to facilitate scene scanning by decreasing the probability that gaze will return to a previously fixated location. This “foraging” hypothesis was tested during scene search and in response to sudden-onset probes at the immediately previous (one-back) fixation location. The latencies of saccades landing within 1º of the previous fixation location were elevated, consistent with oculomotor IOR. However, there was no decrease in the likelihood that the previous location would be fixated relative to distance-matched controls or an a priori baseline. Saccades exhibit an overall forward bias, but this is due to a general bias to move in the same direction and for the same distance as the last saccade (saccadic momentum) rather than to a spatially specific tendency to avoid previously fixated locations. We find no evidence that oculomotor IOR has a significant impact on return probability during scene search

A connectome and analysis of the adult Drosophila central brain.

The neural circuits responsible for animal behavior remain largely unknown. We summarize new methods and present the circuitry of a large fraction of the brain of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. Improved methods include new procedures to prepare, image, align, segment, find synapses in, and proofread such large data sets. We define cell types, refine computational compartments, and provide an exhaustive atlas of cell examples and types, many of them novel. We provide detailed circuits consisting of neurons and their chemical synapses for most of the central brain. We make the data public and simplify access, reducing the effort needed to answer circuit questions, and provide procedures linking the neurons defined by our analysis with genetic reagents. Biologically, we examine distributions of connection strengths, neural motifs on different scales, electrical consequences of compartmentalization, and evidence that maximizing packing density is an important criterion in the evolution of the fly's brain

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Analysis of Linear and Nonlinear dimensionality Reduction Methods for Gender Classification of Face Images

Original article can be found at: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/title~content=t713697751--Copyright Informa / Taylor and Francis Group. DOI : 10.1080/00207720500381573Data in many real world applications are high dimensional and learning algorithms like neural networks may have problems in handling high dimensional data. However, the Intrinsic Dimension is often much less than the original dimension of the data. Here, we use fractal based methods to estimate the Intrinsic Dimension and show that a nonlinear projection method called Curvilinear Component Analysis can effectively reduce the original dimension to the Intrinsic Dimension. We apply this approach for dimensionality reduction of the face images data and use neural network classifiers for Gender Classification.Peer reviewe