Heterogeneous associations between smoking and a wide range of initial presentations of cardiovascular disease in 1937360 people in England: lifetime risks and implications for risk prediction.

BACKGROUND: It is not known how smoking affects the initial presentation of a wide range of chronic and acute cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), nor the extent to which associations are heterogeneous. We estimated the lifetime cumulative incidence of 12 CVD presentations, and examined associations with smoking and smoking cessation. METHODS: Cohort study of 1.93 million people aged ≥30years, with no history of CVD, in 1997-2010. Individuals were drawn from linked electronic health records in England, covering primary care, hospitalizations, myocardial infarction (MI) registry and cause-specific mortality (the CALIBER programme). RESULTS: During 11.6 million person-years of follow-up, 114859 people had an initial non-fatal or fatal CVD presentation. By age 90 years, current vs never smokers' lifetime risks varied from 0.4% vs 0.2% for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH), to 8.9% vs 2.6% for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Current smoking showed no association with cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death [hazard ratio (HR)=1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91-1.19).The strength of association differed markedly according to disease type: stable angina (HR=1.08, 95% CI 1.01-1.15),transient ischaemic attack (HR=1.41, 95% CI 1.28-1.55), unstable angina (HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.38-1.72), intracerebral haemorrhage (HR=1.61, 95% CI 1.37-1.89), heart failure (HR=1.62, 95% CI 1.47-1.79), ischaemic stroke (HR=1.90, 95% CI 1.72-2.10), MI (HR=2.32, 95% CI 2.20-2.45), SAH (HR= 2.70, 95% CI 2.27-3.21), PAD (HR=5.16, 95% CI 4.80-5.54) and abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) (HR=5.18, 95% CI 4.61-5.82). Population-attributable fractions were lower for women than men for unheralded coronary death, ischaemic stroke, PAD and AAA. Ten years after quitting smoking, the risks of PAD, AAA (in men) and unheralded coronary death remained increased (HR=1.36, 1.47 and 2.74, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneous associations of smoking with different CVD presentations suggests different underlying mechanisms and have important implications for research, clinical screening and risk prediction

Type 2 diabetes and incidence of cardiovascular diseases: a cohort study in 1·9 million people.

BACKGROUND: The contemporary associations of type 2 diabetes with a wide range of incident cardiovascular diseases have not been compared. We aimed to study associations between type 2 diabetes and 12 initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease. METHODS: We used linked primary care, hospital admission, disease registry, and death certificate records from the CALIBER programme, which links data for people in England recorded in four electronic health data sources. We included people who were (or turned) 30 years or older between Jan 1, 1998, to March 25, 2010, who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. The primary endpoint was the first record of one of 12 cardiovascular presentations in any of the data sources. We compared cumulative incidence curves for the initial presentation of cardiovascular disease and used Cox models to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios (HRs). This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01804439). FINDINGS: Our cohort consisted of 1 921 260 individuals, of whom 1 887 062 (98·2%) did not have diabetes and 34 198 (1·8%) had type 2 diabetes. We observed 113 638 first presentations of cardiovascular disease during a median follow-up of 5·5 years (IQR 2·1-10·1). Of people with type 2 diabetes, 6137 (17·9%) had a first cardiovascular presentation, the most common of which were peripheral arterial disease (reported in 992 [16·2%] of 6137 patients) and heart failure (866 [14·1%] of 6137 patients). Type 2 diabetes was positively associated with peripheral arterial disease (adjusted HR 2·98 [95% CI 2·76-3·22]), ischaemic stroke (1·72 [1·52-1·95]), stable angina (1·62 [1·49-1·77]), heart failure (1·56 [1·45-1·69]), and non-fatal myocardial infarction (1·54 [1·42-1·67]), but was inversely associated with abdominal aortic aneurysm (0·46 [0·35-0·59]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (0·48 [0·26-0.89]), and not associated with arrhythmia or sudden cardiac death (0·95 [0·76-1·19]). INTERPRETATION: Heart failure and peripheral arterial disease are the most common initial manifestations of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes. The differences between relative risks of different cardiovascular diseases in patients with type 2 diabetes have implications for clinical risk assessment and trial design. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and Medical Research Council

Operational Research in Education

Operational Research (OR) techniques have been applied, from the early stages of the discipline, to a wide variety of issues in education. At the government level, these include questions of what resources should be allocated to education as a whole and how these should be divided amongst the individual sectors of education and the institutions within the sectors. Another pertinent issue concerns the efficient operation of institutions, how to measure it, and whether resource allocation can be used to incentivise efficiency savings. Local governments, as well as being concerned with issues of resource allocation, may also need to make decisions regarding, for example, the creation and location of new institutions or closure of existing ones, as well as the day-to-day logistics of getting pupils to schools. Issues of concern for managers within schools and colleges include allocating the budgets, scheduling lessons and the assignment of students to courses. This survey provides an overview of the diverse problems faced by government, managers and consumers of education, and the OR techniques which have typically been applied in an effort to improve operations and provide solutions

Elevated circulating monocytes and monocyte activation in COVID-19 convalescent individuals

BackgroundMonocytes and macrophages play a pivotal role in inflammation during acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, their contribution to the development of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC) are not fully elucidated.MethodsA cross-sectional study was conducted comparing plasma cytokine and monocyte levels among three groups: participants with pulmonary PASC (PPASC) with a reduced predicted diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide [DLCOc, <80%; (PG)]; fully recovered from SARS-CoV-2 with no residual symptoms (recovered group, RG); and negative for SARS-CoV-2 (negative group, NG). The expressions of cytokines were measured in plasma of study cohort by Luminex assay. The percentages and numbers of monocyte subsets (classical, intermediate, and non-classical monocytes) and monocyte activation (defined by CD169 expression) were analyzed using flow cytometry analysis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells.ResultsPlasma IL-1Ra levels were elevated but FGF levels were reduced in PG compared to NG. Circulating monocytes and three subsets were significantly higher in PG and RG compared to NG. PG and RG exhibited higher levels of CD169+ monocyte counts and higher CD169 expression was detected in intermediate and non-classical monocytes from RG and PG than that found in NG. Further correlation analysis with CD169+ monocyte subsets revealed that CD169+ intermediate monocytes negatively correlated with DLCOc%, and CD169+ non-classical monocytes positively correlated with IL-1α, IL-1β, MIP-1α, Eotaxin, and IFN-γ.ConclusionThis study present evidence that COVID convalescents exhibit monocyte alteration beyond the acute COVID-19 infection period even in convalescents with no residual symptoms. Further, the results suggest that monocyte alteration and increased activated monocyte subsets may impact pulmonary function in COVID-19 convalescents. This observation will aid in understanding the immunopathologic feature of pulmonary PASC development, resolution, and subsequent therapeutic interventions

Evaluation of endothelial function and subclinical atherosclerosis in association with hepatitis C virus in HIV-infected patients: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Relationship of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in HIV-infected patients remains controversial. We evaluated endothelial function and subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected patients with and without HCV.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) of the brachial artery and circulating levels of cell adhesion molecules (CAM) were measured in HCV/HIV-coinfected and HIV-monoinfected patients. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>63 (31%) HCV/HIV-coinfected and 138 (69%) HIV-monoinfected patients were included. Median soluble vascular CAM-1 (sVCAM-1) and intercellular CAM-1 (sICAM-1) levels were significantly higher in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (P < 0.001 for both cases). Median (interquartile range) FMD was 6.21% (2.86-9.62) in HCV/HIV-coinfected and 5.54% (2.13-9.13) in HIV-monoinfected patients (P = 0.37). Adjustment for variables associated with HCV and FMD disclosed similar results. FMD correlated inversely with cIMT and age. Carotid IMT did not differ between HCV/HIV-coinfected and HIV-monoinfected patients in unadjusted (0.61 [0.55-0.65] mm vs 0.60 [0.53-0.72] mm; P = 0.39) or adjusted analyses.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>HCV infection was associated with higher levels of sICAM-1 and sVCAM-1, but no evidence of increased subclinical atherosclerosis was found when endothelial function was evaluated through FMD, or when assessing the cIMT.</p

Ethnicity and the first diagnosis of a wide range of cardiovascular diseases: Associations in a linked electronic health record cohort of 1 million patients

Background: While the association of ethnic group with individual cardiovascular diseases has been studied, little is known about ethnic differences in the initial lifetime presentation of clinical cardiovascular disease in contemporary populations. Methods and results: We studied 1,068,318 people, aged ≥30 years and free from diagnosed CVD at baseline (90.9% White, 3.6% South Asian and 2.9% Black), using English linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, acute coronary syndrome registry and mortality registry (CALIBER research platform). During 5.7 years median follow-up between 1997-2010, 95,224 people experienced an incident cardiovascular diagnosis. 80.2% (77.7% -82.5%) of initial presentation in South Asian <60 yrs were coronary heart disease presentations compared to 66.2% (65.7-66.7) in White and 56.7% (52.1%-61.2%) in Black patients. Compared to White patients, Black patients had significantly lower age-sex adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for initial lifetime presentation of all the coronary disease diagnoses (stable angina HR 0.80 (95% CI 0.68-0.93); unstable angina – 0.75 (0.59-0.97); myocardial infarction 0.49 (0.40-0.62)) while South Asian patients had significantly higher HRs (stable angina – 1.67 (1.52-1.84); unstable angina 1.82 (1.56-2.13); myocardial infarction – 1.67 (1.49-1.87). We found no ethnic differences in initial presentation with heart failure (Black 0.97 (0.79-1.20); S Asian 1.04(0.87-1.26)). Compared to White patients, Black patients were more likely to present with ischaemic stroke (1.24 (0.97-1.58)) and intracerebral haemorrhage (1.44 (0.97-2.12)). Presentation with peripheral arterial disease was less likely for Black (0.63 (0.50-0.80)) and South Asian patients (0.70 (0.57-0.86)) compared with White patients. Discussion: While we found the anticipated substantial predominance of coronary heart disease presentations in South Asian and predominance of stroke presentations in Black patients, we found no ethnic differences in presentation with heart failure. We consider the public health and research implications of our findings

Bleeding in cardiac patients prescribed antithrombotic drugs: Electronic health record phenotyping algorithms, incidence, trends and prognosis

Background Clinical guidelines and public health authorities lack recommendations on scalable approaches to defining and monitoring the occurrence and severity of bleeding in populations prescribed antithrombotic therapy. Methods We examined linked primary care, hospital admission and death registry electronic health records (CALIBER 1998–2010, England) of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina or stable angina with the aim to develop algorithms for bleeding events. Using the developed bleeding phenotypes, Kaplan-Meier plots were used to estimate the incidence of bleeding events and we used Cox regression models to assess the prognosis for all-cause mortality, atherothrombotic events and further bleeding. Results We present electronic health record phenotyping algorithms for bleeding based on bleeding diagnosis in primary or hospital care, symptoms, transfusion, surgical procedures and haemoglobin values. In validation of the phenotype, we estimated a positive predictive value of 0.88 (95% CI 0.64, 0.99) for hospitalised bleeding. Amongst 128,815 patients, 27,259 (21.2%) had at least 1 bleeding event, with 5-year risks of bleeding of 29.1%, 21.9%, 25.3% and 23.4% following diagnoses of atrial fibrillation, acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina and stable angina, respectively. Rates of hospitalised bleeding per 1000 patients more than doubled from 1.02 (95% CI 0.83, 1.22) in January 1998 to 2.68 (95% CI 2.49, 2.88) in December 2009 coinciding with the increased rates of antiplatelet and vitamin K antagonist prescribing. Patients with hospitalised bleeding and primary care bleeding, with or without markers of severity, were at increased risk of all-cause mortality and atherothrombotic events compared to those with no bleeding. For example, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 1.98 (95% CI 1.86, 2.11) for primary care bleeding with markers of severity and 1.99 (95% CI 1.92, 2.05) for hospitalised bleeding without markers of severity, compared to patients with no bleeding. Conclusions Electronic health record bleeding phenotyping algorithms offer a scalable approach to monitoring bleeding in the population. Incidence of bleeding has doubled in incidence since 1998, affects one in four cardiovascular disease patients, and is associated with poor prognosis. Efforts are required to tackle this iatrogenic epidemic

Identifying unmet clinical need in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy using national electronic health records

Introduction: To evaluate unmet clinical need in unselected hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients to determine the risk of a wide range of subsequent cardiovascular disease endpoints and safety endpoints relevant for trial design. Methods: Population based cohort (CALIBER, linked primary care, hospital and mortality records in England, period 1997–2010), all people diagnosed with HCM were identified and matched by age, sex and general practice with ten randomly selected people without HCM. Random-effects Poisson models were used to assess the associations between HCM and cardiovascular diseases and bleeding. Results: Among 3,290,455 eligible people a diagnosis of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy was found in 4 per 10,000. Forty-one percent of the 1,160 individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy were women and the median age was 57 years. The median follow-up was 4.0 years. Compared to general population controls, people with HCM had higher risk of ventricular arrhythmia (incidence rate ratio = 23.53, [95% confidence interval 12.67–43.72]), cardiac arrest or sudden cardiac death (6.33 [3.69–10.85]), heart failure (4.31, [3.30–5.62]), and atrial fibrillation (3.80 [3.04–4.75]). HCM was also associated with a higher incidence of myocardial infarction ([MI] 1.90 [1.27–2.84]) and coronary revascularisation (2.32 [1.46–3.69]).The absolute Kaplan-Meier risks at 3 years were 8.8% for the composite endpoint of cardiovascular death or heart failure, 8.4% for the composite of cardiovascular death, stroke or myocardial infarction, and 1.5% for major bleeding. Conclusions: Our study identified major unmet need in HCM and highlighted the importance of implementing improved cardiovascular prevention strategies to increase life-expectancy of the contemporary HCM population. They also show that national electronic health records provide an effective method for identifying outcomes and clinically relevant estimates of composite efficacy and safety endpoints essential for trial design in rare diseases

Impact of diabetes on the predictive value of heart failure biomarkers

Altres ajuts: This study was funded by the Redes Temáticas de Investigación Cooperativa en Salud (RETICS); Red Cardiovascular (RD12/0042/0047) as part of the Plan Nacional de I+D+I.Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have an increased risk of developing heart failure (HF). Further, DM is associated with poor prognosis in patients with HF. Our aim was to determine whether DM has any impact on the predictive value of a multi-biomarker panel in patients with HF. We included 1069 consecutive ambulatory HF patients in the study: age 66.2 ± 12.8 years, 33.5 ± 13.3 left ventricular ejection fraction, 36% diabetic patients. We measured serum concentrations of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT), ST2, galectin-3, high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), cystatin-C, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), and neprilysin and followed patients for 4.9 ± 2.8 years. Primary endpoints were all-cause and cardiovascular death. During follow-up, 534 patients died; 283 died of cardiovascular causes. Diabetic subjects had higher mortality (57.7 vs. 45.6%, p < 0.001). NTproBNP (p = 0.07), hs-TnT (p < 0.001), galectin-3 (p < 0.001), and cystatin-C (p = 0.001) concentrations were higher in diabetic patients, whereas sTfR levels were lower (p = 0.005). There were no interactions between DM and NTproBNP, hs-TnT, galectin-3, hs-CRP, cystatin-C, sTfR, and neprilysin relative to risk prediction for all-cause or cardiovascular death. By contrast, ST2 significantly interacted with DM for all-cause (p = 0.02) and cardiovascular (p = 0.03) death. In diabetic patients, HRs for ST2 were 1.27 (95% CI 1.16-1.40, p < 0.001) and 1.23 (95% CI 1.09-1.39, p = 0.001) for all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. In nondiabetic patients, HRs for ST2 were 1.53 (95% CI 1.35-1.73, p < 0.001) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.31-2.05, p < 0.001) for all-cause and cardiovascular death, respectively. The multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that hs-TnT and ST2 were the only markers that were independently associated with both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in patients with HF and diabetes. Moreover, in these patients, the combination of these two markers significantly increased discrimination as assessed by the area under the curve. Biomarkers used in the general population to predict the clinical course of heart failure are also useful in patients with diabetes. In these patients, among all the biomarkers analysed only hs-TnT and ST2 were independently associated with both all-cause and cardiovascular mortality